RADIO
The final game is here. We have pushed through five months of football to get to this point, and tomorrow is the last NFL game we’ll see for several months. So, enjoy it while you can. With it being the last game we have for a while, we have to go and try to make some money on it. This column has been up and down this year, and the playoffs have been tough to get a read on. We’re slightly in the red for the season, but there are some spots to get us back in the green before we ride off into the sunset.
I’m glad that we don’t have to bet on Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs again until next season because we lost on him twice, and both times it was a result of one too many negative runs. We got an easy win from Baltimore Ravens’ wideout Zay Flowers, but it was a rough week after that. It was only the second time this season that Brandon Aiyuk of the San Francisco 49ers saw eight or more targets but failed to eclipse 75 yards. After playing more than 50 percent of the snaps in every game this season, including games with injuries, Brian Branch played a season-low 41 percent last week. Finally, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs got a quick touchdown, and they couldn’t do much of anything over the final three quarters on offense.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Super Bowl Weekend
Isaiah Pacheco O66.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -109
Our first prop of the day is one that I think most people are overlooking because of everyone else on the team. The Chiefs are built around Mahomes, but I think they’re planning to win this game with long drives built around running back Isaiah Pacheco. In two of their three playoff games, he’s had 24 carries, and he’s cleared this line in four straight games and five of his last six.
On the year, the 49ers defense ranks fourth by defensive DVOA, but they’re 15th against the run. In the playoffs, they’re allowing 5.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and they gave up a 42-yard run to Lions’ wideout Jameson Williams on the opening drive two weeks ago. In years past, the Chiefs would use the running game to supplement their passing game, but they have flipped that script. They’re more than willing to let Pacheco be the engine that drives their offense, and I think that continues this weekend.
Rashee Rice O6.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -105
I just said that I think they’re going to ride Pacheco, and I’m immediately pivoting to a wide receiver receptions prop after that? You’re absolutely right. The public juice is on tight end Travis Kelce, which makes sense, so we’re going to wideout Rashee Rice on this one. Rice has only hit this line six times this season, but all six of those have come in the last nine games for Kansas City, including in two of the three postseason games. Rice isn’t the downfield threat that the team had in former wideout Tyreek Hill, but he gives them an athletic player that can move the chains in close, as evidenced by his eight receptions for just 46 yards last week.
The 49ers gave up seven receptions to wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown last week, and there were multiple opportunities for St. Brown and teammate Josh Reynolds to rack up more receptions last week when they were running open. I don’t expect tomorrow’s game to feature a high-flying Chiefs’ offense, but I do think that Rice continues to be heavily targeted. He can win against these 49ers’ cornerbacks, and, with injuries along the offensive line, I think Rice could see a lot of quick targets to keep Mahomes upright.
Nick Bosa O0.5 Sacks
Sportsbook: ESPNBet
Odds: +110
You remember those offensive line injuries I just mentioned? We’re targeting those with this prop. Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney (pectoral) is likely to miss this game, and right tackle Jawaan Taylor has struggled all season. He leads the NFL in penalties with 20, which is eight more than any other player. The Chiefs allowed the second-fewest sacks in the NFL this year, but that was due in large part to Mahomes’ ability to get rid of the ball quickly and avoid potential sackers in the pocket.
Defensive end Nick Bosa is the best pass rusher on this roster, and it’s not been close this postseason. He regularly wrecks plays by himself, and he has both of the team’s sacks through two games after nabbing two in their last game against the Lions. Bosa has 12.5 sacks on the year, including the postseason, and I think he finds a way to get to Mahomes at least once in this one. He also doesn’t have to get the sack by himself. If he meets at the quarterback just one time, that will be enough for the plus-money win.
Noah Gray O1.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -103
Everyone is on Kelce, so it’s only logical that we bet on the other Chiefs’ tight end in Noah Gray. Gray continues to be a consistent presence for the Chiefs’ offense. He doesn’t put up crazy stats, and he’s not going to be the replacement for Kelce when he does hang it up. However, he’s doing good work for now. He’s cleared this mark in 11-of-20 games this season, including back-to-back playoff games. Gray doesn’t see a ton of volume, but he catches at a strong clip at nearly 70 percent this season.
The 49ers have some of the best linebackers in the NFL, but, despite that, they allowed the 12th-most receptions to tight ends during the regular season. During the playoffs, they’ve allowed tight ends to catch 68 percent of their passes, and, among the three tight ends with at least two targets, all three cleared this mark. The logic for Kelce makes sense. He’ll play a high rate of snaps, and he’ll see his fair share of targets. However, I think Gray will find a way to still get a couple of looks his way.
Elijah Mitchell O1.5 Rushing Attempts
Sportsbook: ESPNBet
Odds: +105
Our final play of the 2023-24 NFL season is on everyone’s favorite 49ers running back in Elijah Mitchell. This play is silly. I’ll admit that. The 49ers were up by 30 earlier this year, and they still had Christian McCaffrey on the field because they wanted to keep his touchdown streak alive. However, I think that works to our advantage here. CMC led the NFL in touches with 339 during the regular season, and he’s added another 48 to that total in the playoffs. McCaffrey has also had games this year where he left early or briefly while dealing with an injury.
It’s the biggest game of the year. Unless McCaffrey is unable to get on the field, I know that he’ll be out there. However, I also know that Mitchell has been involved when he does get on the field this year. In 13 games this season, he’s cleared this line in 11 of those 13 games. It’s not a sexy bet to fade McCaffrey’s workload, but sometimes that’s how you win money. Mitchell getting just a couple carries isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and I think we got a strong chance on this one.
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