RADIO
In almost every fantasy baseball draft, you will find that as the mid to later rounds begin, you're lacking in a certain category. Some are easier to make up ground in but knowing who to target for specific stats will allow you to navigate the draft more clearly.
Here we are taking a look at five hitters who are generally going in the second half of drafts who can help you in the runs category. We'll assess their chances of reaching (or bettering their projections) and why they can achieve that. To be considered, they need to have an ADP (Average Draft Position) of 180 or higher in NFBC drafts.
We'll be using the ATC projections (available at RotoBaller.com) to help give us an idea of what is expected of these hitters. Plus, we'll look at why these five should be able to reach or better their projections. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X .
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Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
ADP - 191
ATC projection - 89 runs
Nimmo played 152 games in 2023, starting 150 of them. In every start, Nimmo was the Mets' leadoff hitter. It was a similar story in 2022 with all but one of Nimmo's starts coming as the leadoff hitter. That instantly will offer a route to scoring runs and there's no reason to believe it won't be the same again in 2024.
It's easy to see why Nimmo is an ideal leadoff candidate, given his career .380 OBP and .274/.365/.450 slash line over the last two seasons. Nimmo's 10.9% BB% ranked in the 80th percentile last year with his .363 OBP ranking tied-19th among qualified hitters. He isn't only a one-trick pony. He set a career-high in homers last year (24). Given he had 26.7 xHR (expected home runs), we can't say the outfielder was fluky in setting a personal best.
Nimmo offers a good batting average, a decent bit of pop, and is again a threat to score close to 100 runs. The Mets may be rebuilding a bit, but on paper their offense is better than last year. If you need the runs and haven't stacked your outfield with early picks, Nimmo is the ideal target. In leagues using OBP, he becomes even more valuable and vaults up the rankings.
Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies
ADP - 195
ATC projection - 80 runs
Tovar is the first of two Rockies hitters set to provide plenty of runs for cheap on your fantasy teams. He had a solid rookie campaign, hitting .253/.287/.408 with 15 homers, 73 RBI, 79 runs, and 11 stolen bases (153 games). With a 4.1% BB% (second percentile) and 27.0% K% (23rd percentile), it might come as a surprise that Tovar managed to score as many runs as he did. Especially given that he hit first or second in only 74 games.
While Coors Field is only the ninth-hitter-friendliest when it comes to home runs (according to Statcast Park Factors), it is the most hitter-friendly when it comes to hits and runs scored. If we look at the below table showing Tovar's numbers at home and on the road, we can see how big of a boost it was to him playing at Coors Field.
| Split | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | RBI | R | wOBA | ISO | wRC+ |
| Home | 316 | .276 | .315 | .438 | 43 | 47 | .324 | .162 | 73 |
| Away | 299 | .229 | .258 | .377 | 30 | 32 | .272 | .148 | 67 |
Tovar won't be a league-winning shortstop. But he won't hurt you in any category either. There's enough power and speed to get by and a slightly better-than-league-average (.248) batting average. Even if Tovar drops down the battling lineup more frequently, he will still be able to score and drive in runs, especially at home.
Edouard Julien, Minnesota Twins
ADP - 212
ATC projection - 73 runs
If Julien wasn't already an intriguing fantasy option, becoming the de facto Opening Day second baseman for the Twins has increased his fantasy appeal. Since trading away Jorge Polanco, Julien's ADP is ~206 and it will likely drop below 200 in the coming weeks. After showing his ability in his debut season, Julien now has the opportunity for an everyday role.
In 2023, the second baseman hit .263/.381/.459 with 16 homers, 37 RBI, 60 runs, and three stolen bases (109 games). Julien led off in 57 of his appearances, and against right-handed pitching (RHP), he is set to do so again in 2024. There is a danger of a platoon for Julien given his .196/.229/.217 against LHP, but he was limited to just 48 appearances against lefties. He should at least get more chances to face LHP with Polanco out of the picture.
Julien's propensity to talk a walk (18.0% BB%) in the minor leagues was on display in the majors. His 15.7% BB% following his promotion to the Twins ranked in the 98th percentile. While only projected for 73 runs, that is from 128 games. If Julien is allowed to face LHP frequently and can show a propensity to hit (or walk) against them, there's no reason he can't top 90 runs while being a top second-base option in OBP leagues.
Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
ADP - 225
ATC projection - 74 runs
As expected, McMahon had better numbers at home (.816 OPS) than on the road (.690) last year. But he scored a similar number of runs with 42 coming at Coors Field and 38 coming away from Colorado. The key to McMahon's fantasy value has been his consistency. We can see below how the second of our Rockies hitters has been one of the most consistent players in baseball over the last three seasons.
| Year | G | PA | HR | RBI | R | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2021 | 151 | 596 | 23 | 86 | 80 | 6 | .254 | .331 | .449 |
| 2022 | 153 | 597 | 20 | 67 | 67 | 7 | .246 | .327 | .414 |
| 2023 | 152 | 627 | 23 | 70 | 80 | 5 | .240 | .322 | .431 |
| Average | 152 | 607 | 22 | 74 | 77 | 6 | .246 | .326 | .431 |
ATC projections have McMahon scoring 74 runs in 143 games. Given the number of games he has played in each of the last three years, another 10 games and therefore a few more runs seems likely. The third baseman played 81 games, hitting third in the lineup last year. The emergence of Nolan Jones may see McMahon slip down to fifth, but he could easily still hit fourth and will still be in a great spot to score and drive in runs.
McMahon does enough of everything to be worthwhile drafting at his ADP. His batting average won't help, but won't cause serious harm either. Only 15 players have played more games than McMahon since 2021, offering a nice floor due to his volume. He has scored 80 runs in two of the last three seasons and I certainly wouldn't bet against him reaching that total again in 2024.
J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners
ADP - 270
ATC projection - 81 runs
Crawford had his best offensive year in 2023. Yet looking at his ADP, the fantasy community is not buying into it. In 145 games, Crawford hit .266/.380/.438 with 19 homers, 65 RBI, 94 runs, and two stolen bases. The home runs, RBI, and runs were all career highs and so too was his .380 OBP and .438 SLG. Crawford also had a 14.7% BB% (96th percentile), the highest since his rookie debut (18.4% BB% in 23 games).
That lofty walk rate helped Crawford become the Mariners' predominant leadoff hitter (113 games). While he showed more power against RHP (.463 SLG) compared to LHP (.382 SLG), he got on base at a similar rate (.382 OBP against RHP and .373 against LHP). That should be enough to prevent any platoons. Hitting in front of Julio Rodriguez will help Crawford to score plenty of runs.
It might be a coincidence, but the fact Crawford had such a significant improvement at the plate following a visit to Driveline shouldn't be dismissed. It appears as though it helped unlock something. If it did and Crawford can maintain those improvements, scoring 90 runs again shouldn't be out of reach. The shortstop could end up being a steal in drafts this year, especially in OBP leagues.
Congrats to Driveline Trainee JP Crawford on a monster 2023 at the plate, tripling his home run total from 2022 while improving his average by 23 points. 🔥
Congrats @jp_crawford 👏 pic.twitter.com/O9rjgZswa0
— Driveline Baseball (@DrivelineBB) October 9, 2023
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