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Our Sleeper.com NFL DFS prop picks - over/under props for Wild Card Monday. Dan's favorite prop bets on Sleeper.com.
Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Wild Card Weekend: Monday Night Football. The last game of Wild Card Weekend features the Eagles and the Buccaneers.
Our Sleeper DFS prop picks finished the regular season at 106-78 across all slates. We’ll look to build on that with our top prop picks for MNF.
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Wild Card DFS Prop Picks: Eagles vs. Bucs MNF
Jalen Hurts OVER 30.5 Rushing Yards
The Eagles travel to Tampa Bay on Monday night with something to prove, having lost five of their last six to end the regular season. Hurts and the Philadelphia offense face a tough Buccaneers team that ranked 14th in defensive DVOA and gave up the fifth-least rushing yards this season.
With the Eagles likely to rely more heavily on Hurts, he has a great chance to top his rushing props. While Hurts is no slouch as a runner in the regular season, averaging 8.5 rushes and 40.4 rushing yards per game for his career, he adds an extra gear in the postseason. In four career playoff games, Hurts has averaged 10.8 rushes and 45.5 rushing yards per game.
Hurts exceeded 30 rushing yards in nine of his 17 games this season, averaging 35.6 rushing yards per game. The Buccs have only allowed two QBs to rush for over 30 yards this year, but they haven’t faced many signal callers with Hurts’ pedigree on the ground. Hurts is nursing a finger injury as well, which may account for an extra 1-2 rushes against a Buccs defense that ranked 10th in sacks this year.
Trey Palmer OVER 23.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Buccaneers rookie receiver Trey Palmer had a serviceable first NFL season, finishing with 39 catches for 385 receiving yards and three touchdowns while averaging 62% of snaps. He also got involved in the running game with three rushes this year, giving his combined yardage prop a slight pop.
The sixth-round pick has finished with 24 or more combined yards in five of his last 10 games after only topping that amount once in his first six matchups. He faces off against an Eagles secondary that gave up the second-most yards through the air this season.
PFF shows a 61.2% likelihood of this prop hitting. Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool agrees with this pick, giving his receiving prop a 9.2% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 27.6 yards.
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Chase Edmonds OVER 11.5 Rushing Yards
Edmonds is showing value on his rushing prop this week as a sneaky play that many may not be paying attention to.
As the Buccaneers' RB2, his usage has ticked upwards as the season has progressed. After averaging 10% of offensive snaps in Weeks 1 through 15, his snap share has jumped up to an average of 28% over his last three contests. Edmonds has hit 13 or more rushing yards in five straight, averaging 5.6 carries per game over that span.
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool is in line with this pick, giving it a 24.8% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 19.1 rushing yards. In what is expected to be a tight game with a three-point margin, look for the Buccaneers to keep the Eagles guessing on offense by mixing Edmonds in on third downs.
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