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Our Sleeper.com NFL DFS prop picks - over/under props for Wild Card Sunday. Dan's favorite prop bets on Sleeper.com.
Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for the Sunday Slate of Wild Card Weekend.
Our Sleeper DFS prop picks finished the regular season at 106-78 across all slates. We’ll look to build on that with our top prop picks for Sunday’s playoff matchups.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for Sunday's games on Sleeper DFS.
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Wild Card Weekend Sleeper DFS Prop Picks: Sunday Slate
Jared Goff OVER 260.5 Passing Yards
While the majority of discussion seems to be on the Rams and Matthew Stafford in this matchup, don’t sleep on Goff’s ability to return value in the passing game on Sunday. Goff had alarming home/away splits this year, averaging 280 passing yards, 2.6 total touchdowns, 70.1% completion, and a 107.9 quarterback rating at home compared to 259 passing yards, 1.2 touchdowns, 64.8% completion, and an 89.4 quarterback rating on the road.
In a matchup with a 51.5-point total featuring two bottom-six defenses in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, expect a lot of passing on both sides.
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool is in line with this pick, giving it a 15.9% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 276 passing yards.
Najee Harris UNDER 1.5 Receptions
Harris has been leveraged as a true between-the-tackles back for the Steelers this season with shifty back Jaylen Warren seeing more opportunities and emerging as the stronger pass catcher. Pittsburgh has found success in recent weeks leaning on Harris on the ground, giving him 72 carries and just five targets over their last three games, all wins. Warren, meanwhile, has tallied 15 targets while being given 30 carries over that same span.
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool gives this prop an 11.8% edge, with a Sharp App projected line of 1.4 catches. Look for the Steelers to continue prioritizing Warren in the passing game while Harris attacks the Bills defense on the ground on Sunday.
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CeeDee Lamb OVER 7.5 Receptions
Lamb had an outstanding 2023 campaign, finishing as the WR1 in fantasy with career highs in every major statistical category. He enters the postseason on an absolute streak of dominance, totaling 30 targets, 26 catches, 325 receiving yards, and three touchdowns over his last two games.
PFF projects Lamb to have the best matchup advantage of any receiver this week against the Packers secondary, with a 91.9 advantage grade. His 91.1 PFF receiving grade far outpaces the 61.2 coverage grade of Green Bay slot corner Keisean Nixon, who he will line up against most often on Sunday night.
The Packers are league-average in their rate of both zone and man coverage. Lamb ranks among the league’s best in fantasy points per route run versus man (0.88) and zone (0.44) this season.
PFF agrees with this pick, giving it a 77.4% likelihood of hitting.
Other Recommendations:
- Cooper Kupp OVER 5.5 receptions
- Chris Boswell OVER 4.5 kicking points
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