RADIO
Week 18 of the NFL season is here. The regular season is nearly in the books. Some teams are still fighting for their playoff lives, some have clinched a spot, and the rest are fighting for their jobs next season. For us in this column, we’re fighting to end the regular season in the green due to consistently confounding coaching decisions and extremely unfortunate calls going against us.
Last week, it was a 1-4 week, but it easily should have been at least a 3-2 performance. Jahmyr Gibbs finished with 43 rushing yards on the day, but he had five of his 15 carries combine for -16 yards along with five more that got wiped out by a holding penalty. Kenneth Walker III got hurt and left the game early. Despite trailing by double digits for most of the game, Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons didn’t see his first target until the second half. The New York Giants just couldn’t give Saquon Barkley enough room to run to really get out and bust one. At least we had one easy clearance in Adam Thielen of the Carolina Panthers.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 18
Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Sportsbook: ESPNBet
Odds: -114
Our second prop of the week is taking advantage of a great matchup for a team that needs to win to get into the playoffs and a market that’s poorly priced. Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White has been a workhorse for this team all year, and I expect that to continue this week. If the Bucs win, they’re in the playoffs. White has nine touchdowns on the year, including one against the Panthers when these teams matched up just over a month ago.
The Panthers are last in the NFL with 25 touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs this year. They’ve allowed at least one running back touchdown in 13 of their 16 games this year, and they’re coming off of a shutout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars where they were playing their backup quarterback and still gave up a pair of touchdowns to running back Travis Etienne. Throw in the fact that ESPNBet is showing this number while most books are -140 or longer, and I’ll take those odds all day.
Wan'Dale Robinson O29.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -115
This is a weird one. I don’t necessarily love the idea of targeting a wide receiver on a team that doesn’t have anything to play for in Week 18, but the New York Giants and wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson are still playing hard and trying to build momentum heading into next season. Robinson has only hit this mark in six of his 14 games this season, but it doesn’t tell the full story with the carousel of quarterbacks the Giants have had this year.
Robinson is tied for the team-lead in targets, despite missing two games, and he leads the team in receptions. He’s third in yards, and he draws a Philadelphia Eagles’ team that can’t find their footing with losses in four of their last five games. Robinson only had 16 yards against the Eagles two weeks ago, but he had seven targets. The matchup remains great with the Eagles allowing the third-most receiving yards in the NFL to opposing wideouts this year. This mark is low enough for Robinson to get there even if he possibly gets pulled early.
Stefon Diggs O59.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Of the five props that we’re going over today, this might be the one that I’m actually the most questionable on. Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs was one of the most consistent wideouts in the NFL to start the year. He hit this mark in eight of the team’s first nine games. Now, he’s hit it just once in their last seven games. The team is also 5-2 in that stretch with their two losses coming due to a miracle field goal by Jake Elliott to send the game to overtime and a 12-men on the field penalty to give the Denver Broncos a redemption shot at a field goal.
Earlier in the year, Diggs torched the Miami Dolphins to the tune of six catches on seven targets for 120 yards. Last season, against the Los Angeles Rams and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, Diggs had eight catches on nine targets for 122 yards. The Dolphins have an injury report longer than a CVS receipt, and it’s injuries on both sides of the ball. We’re buying the dip on Diggs here. I think that he’s due for at least one strong game still this year, and this is a good spot to get him with that in mind.
Justin Jefferson O88.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -114
The Minnesota Vikings need help to get into the playoffs in the form of the Green Bay Packers losing along with a loss by the Seattle Seahawks and one of the Bucs or New Orleans Saints. Their hopes are slim, but they’re still there. Vikings’ wideout Justin Jefferson needs a little under 120 yards to go over 1000 yards for the season. Considering he missed effectively eight and a half games this year after exiting the team’s win over the Las Vegas Raiders early, that’s incredible.
Two weeks ago, Jefferson caught six of his 10 targets for 141 yards. He’s gone for more than 124 yards in five of his seven career games against the Lions, and they just gave up more than 220 yards to CeeDee Lamb last week. They’ve allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts, and they show no signs of being able to improve that. I think Jefferson gets there in this one.
Dalton Schultz O4.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: Caesar's Sportsbook
Odds: +108
With questionable snap counts and gamescripts for this week, we can’t be as selective as I would like. So, I chose to focus more on plays where the team in question still has a chance to either make the playoffs or adjust their playoff seeding. With that in mind, our first play of the week is Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz getting peppered with targets tonight against the Indianapolis Colts.
Schultz has only hit this number three times this season, but he has a few things working in his favor tonight. For one, he needs just four receptions to get a $250k bonus, and he needs six to double that bonus. The Colts allow the eighth-most receptions to opposing tight ends, and they gave up four to Schultz back in the first matchup between these two teams when Houston had more weapons to work with. I think quarterback CJ Stroud finds his veteran tight end early and often in this one.
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