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Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 18 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for five players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a try in rugby, which Ellis applies for touchdowns.
Happy New Year everyone! I hope you all had a great championship week. This week, we have some special Pie Shop picks for the New Year. Here we predict players to score touchdowns. Last week, we selected five players and finished 3-2.
For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.
We have matchups on Saturday and Sunday this week as we head into the playoffs. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 18 Pie Shop.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings (redraft)
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Week 18 Touchdown Picks (30-24 Season Record *updated January*)
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Texans @ Colts, Saturday 6:15 PM MST/8:15 PM EST
It’s a must-win game for both teams Saturday night. The Houston Texans take on their divisional rivals for a “win and in” playoff scenario. Both of these teams have been pleasant surprises all year, and both have potential Coach of the Year candidates.
In a huge game, the Colts will try and ride their superstar back to another victory. Last week, he totaled over 100 scrimmage yards and a score against the Raiders. This week, he gets a tougher opponent that held Derrick Henry to 42 yards on 12 attempts last week. However, the Colts will need to lean on their stars to win this one.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Vikings @ Lions, Sunday 11:00 AM MST/1:00 PM EST
Nick Mullens will be under center again for the Vikings, which helps this entire offense. Mullens will face the Lions for the second time this season after losing 30-24 in Week 16.
Technically, the Vikings still have a chance to make the postseason, but it is a long shot. This team will want to win the game badly, and Jefferson can put this offense on his back. Plus, the Lions are allowing 1.5 receiving TDs to the WR position per game. Give me Jefferson to have a huge day in this one.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Cowboys @ Commanders, Sunday 2:25 PM MST/4:25 PM EST
CeeDee is the hottest WR in the league right now and has a perfect matchup to finish the regular season. The Cowboys will secure their standing if they can win this game and the Commanders are already looking towards the draft.
This Washington team has not been able to stop anyone through the air. They are allowing the most touchdowns per game to the WR position with 1.6 per game. Considering Dak Prescott is leading the league in passing touchdowns, that’s a great sign for Lamb to open the Pie Shop in Week 18.
James Conner (RB, ARI)
Seahawks @ Cardinals, Sunday 2:25 PM MST/4:25 PM EST
James Conner is the RB5 since Week 13. Not only is Conner leading RBs in yards after contact per touch, but he isn’t slowing down anytime soon. Although there is an out in his contract after this season, the team will likely keep him around one more year.
Conner has six touchdowns in his last four games and is a big reason the Cardinals upset the Eagles last week. This week, he faces a Seahawks defense that is allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns to the RB position on the season. In a game where the Cardinals look to play spoiler to their divisional rivals, Conner should see plenty of usage in a great matchup.
Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)
Bills @ Dolphins, Sunday 6:20 PM MST/8:20 PM EST
If the Dolphins want to have any chance in this game, Tyreek Hill needs to have a day. With Jaylen Waddle, Xavien Howard, and Bradley Chubb all injured, this Dolphins team is hanging on by a thread.
It’s simple, if the Dolphins win, they are the second seed in the AFC. If they lose, they are potentially the sixth or seventh seed. Although the Bills have been steady against opposing WRs all year, Hill is a different beast. I trust that Mike McDaniel will find a way to make sure Hill is schemed open in this one.
Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!
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