RADIO
Welcome to Week 17 of the WR/CB Matchups article. If you're reading this article, hopefully you've advanced to the finals! For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly series looking at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. As we approach the fantasy playoffs, matchup quality becomes clearer as we have more data to work with. Keep a look out for defensive injuries as oftentimes late-season banged-up DB rooms can lead to ceiling games from WRs.
During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.
As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.
The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 17
Click the image for a full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
Brandon Aiyuk is one of the most underrated players in the entire NFL. The 49ers obviously have a loaded skill group, so any one of Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, or George Kittle could deliver a ceiling game this week. However, Aiyuk has the best matchup.
C.J. Stroud should be back for the Texans, and Nico Collins is in a great spot against the Titans. Tennessee has been shredded by opposing WR groups all year.
The Bucs' pass defense has been exploitable all year. It's a good spot for Chris Olave and the Saints' WR group.
D.J. Chark came out of nowhere to deliver a huge performance last week against the Packers. This week, he takes on a Jaguars' pass defense that has been putrid against opposing outside WRs since Tyson Campbell went down. Chark isn't a bad deep-league play.
Keep an eye out for Courtland Sutton's practice status. If he can't go, Marvin Mims Jr. gets a bump in opportunity and has a good matchup.
The Eagles have been gashed by opposing WR groups all year. It's a matchup upgrade for the Cardinals' WRs, including Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch.
The Chiefs' offense was stifled by Las Vegas last week, but this week against the Bengals could be a bounce-back spot for Patrick Mahomes. Justin Watson and Rashee Rice get matchup upgrades as the Bengals deal with injuries in their secondary.
K.J. Osborn came to life when Jordan Addison went down last week against the Lions. This week, Osborn gets a very favorable slot matchup against the Packers. Keep in mind that Justin Jefferson also plays some slot and that Green Bay's top CB Jaire Alexander will miss the game due to a suspension.
On the other side of that game, if Jayden Reed plays, he gets a matchup boost against the Vikings, who have been terrible against opposing slots all year.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
Michael Pittman Jr. may not play this week due to a concussion, but if he does go, he has a tough matchup against the Raiders. Antonio Pierce has his defense playing inspired ball.
D.J. Moore busted last week in a plus matchup. This week, he'll take on the Falcons, who have been stout against outside WRs all year.
On the other side of that game, Drake London also gets a matchup downgrade. Chicago's pass defense has been solid during the second half of the year.
Amari Cooper was a fantasy playoff hero last week against the Texans, but this week he'll have to deal with Sauce Gardner and the Jets. It's a matchup downgrade. Cooper is also listed as questionable, so he may not play at all. If that's the case, Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore will see target share increases but will both still have tough matchups against the Jets' elite CB group.
The Panthers' secondary has been stingy against opposing slots all year. It's not a great spot for Parker Washington.
The Broncos have one of the best CBs in the league in Patrick Surtain II and have been better against the pass in recent weeks. It's not a good matchup for the Chargers' WRs. Keep an eye out for Keenan Allen's practice reports as he missed last week due to an injury.
Tee Higgins smashed against Pittsburgh this week, but this week will have to take on one of the toughest pass defenses in the league in Kansas City. Trent McDuffie and company are fresh off holding Davante Adams to one catch last week.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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