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Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 16 Thursday Night Football: Saints vs. Rams.
Last week’s picks went 2-1, bringing us to 7-2 (78%) since taking over this column in Week 13. Let’s start Week 16 off right with three more top props.
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NFL Sleeper DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Thursday Night Football
Matthew Stafford OVER 21.5 Completions
Stafford has been on a hot streak in recent weeks, totaling 1,060 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and only one interception over his last four games. During that span, he has averaged 23.8 completions and 36 attempts per game. Leaning on the passing game recently has worked out well for the Rams, who have won four of their last five games and sit at 7-7 with three games to play.
This week Stafford and the Rams welcome the Saints to town, a middling opponent who sit as the 15th-best matchup for QBs according to PFF’s strength of schedule metric. The Saints have benefited from a weak division this year and currently sit as the 12th-best defense according to DVOA. That said, Stafford has seemingly elevated his play against top defenses this year, finishing with 22+ completions and 250+ passing yards in all three of his matchups against top-five defenses by DVOA (49ers, Browns, and Ravens).
With a healthy complement of offensive weapons this week in a must-win game to keep pace in the wildcard race, look for Stafford to clear his completions total. With multiple touchdowns in four straight, consider riding with the gunslinger for over 1.5 passing touchdowns as well.
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Alvin Kamara OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards
Kamara’s rushing prop is showing value this week. He has hit 50 or more rushing yards in four straight games and 9-of-11 games this season, averaging 14.6 carries and 57.3 rushing yards per game this year for the Saints.
The Rams have the 22nd-ranked defense according to DVOA. They have given up an average of 110.8 rushing yards per game, 18th-most in the league. While LA has been formidable against opposing fantasy running backs this season (31st in PPR fantasy points allowed to the position), they have not faced a Pro Bowl-caliber runner since Week 9 (Aaron Jones, who finished with 73 rushing yards and a score). They gave up 50+ rushing yard performances to eight RBs in their first nine weeks.
In a must-win game with star WR Chris Olave still nursing an ankle injury, the Saints will be looking to put the ball in the hands of their top playmaker as much as possible. As such, Kamara is a great pick to produce on the ground and through the air this week.
Derek Carr UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Carr has had a largely forgettable first season with the Saints, ranking as the QB18 so far while passing for 3,068 yards, 16 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. After scoring five passing touchdowns in his last two games, now is a great time to sell high by fading Carr.
The 11th-year pro has only five multi-touchdown performances this season (36% of games). His per-game marks of 32 attempts and 1.14 touchdowns are career lows, and his 221.3 passing yards per game is his lowest since his rookie season of 2014.
The Rams have given up one passing touchdown or less in nine of 14 games this year (64%). The list of QBs they have held to this mark this season includes past or current MVP candidates in Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Brock Purdy. With Carr often subbed out for Taysom Hill in goal-line scenarios, his touchdown likelihood is even lower. Fade Carr this week.
Be sure to check out the rest of our prop betting coverage later this week. Good luck with your picks!
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