NFL Player Props: Bets for Week 14 - Prop Betting Picks for Rushing, Receiving, Passing Yards

December 9, 2023

Gage Bridgford provides his favorite NFL player prop bets for quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers in Week 14. His top props betting picks, all free.

We're really into the home stretch now with Week 14 upon us. The NFL fantasy regular season is nearly over, and the actual NFL regular season is following closely behind. After a couple of strong months to start the season, we took a bit of a tumble in November, but we're building things back up to end the year. All we need is a few balls to bounce our way to really carry some strong momentum to end the year. We've been close, and I feel like one of those weeks is right around the corner. 

It’s another week back in the green after the stumble we had a few weeks ago, and we’re scratching at the door of being back up on the year overall. We had easy wins from Rachaad White, Tyreek Hill and Sam LaPorta, but we weren’t so lucky on our last couple of picks. Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders were trailing nearly the entire game, but they couldn’t stay on the field long enough to rack up passing attempts. On the Samaje Perine front, he played the second-fewest snaps of the season for him, and Russell Wilson was distributing the ball a ton with eight different pass catchers seeing at least two targets.

We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.

NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 14

Drake London O45.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -113

The first prop of the week has us heading south for this one with Atlanta Falcons wideout Drake London leading us off in this one. The second-year wideout is coming off of a rough game against the New York Jets, but the Jets have been one of the best teams in the league against opposing wideouts. London dealt with an injury earlier in the year that caused a small lull, but he’s far and away the top wide receiver option in this offense. 

He leads all Falcons’ pass catchers in targets, receptions and yards, and he’s cleared this receiving line six times in 11 games this season, including against these same Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in October. The Bucs have given up the third-most receiving yards to wideouts this season, and they allow nearly 200 yards per game to the position. Tampa has also been a stout run defense this season, and I think that forces the Falcons to throw the ball a bit more than they normally might in this one.

David Montgomery O60.5 Rushing Yards

Sportsbook: Caesar's Sportsbook

Odds: -102

We’re going back to Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery in this one, and it definitely helps his case that we’re in the revenge spot once again against the Chicago Bears. Montgomery has hit this line in all but two games this season, and one of those was when he left the game early in a blowout win over the Bucs. Since returning from his rib injury, Monty has hit this line in three out of four games, and that includes two games where the team trailed for the majority of the way.

After the strong production out of rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, there were concerns that Monty’s workload would be affected, but that has not been the case thus far. The Bears are third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to running backs, but Montgomery showed a few weeks ago that he is a strong matchup against this group. The Lions have stumbled of late, and I think they get back to their early season success of running the ball behind their big offensive line here.

Jake Ferguson O43.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115

In a game with massive playoff implications for the rest of the year, I had to find some way to get involved, and I settled on Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson in this one. Ferguson has been the second-most consistent pass catcher in this offense all year, and he’s coming off of a strong six catch, 77 yard performance a week ago. Ferguson has only cleared this mark five times this season, but that’s been due to gamescript more than anything else. 

In the five games he has cleared the mark, the Cowboys have been in tight games that required them to throw and compete to score. In the games he’s come up short, the Cowboys were either winning big or losing big. I expect this to be a tight one throughout as it was a couple weeks ago. The Eagles have fallen into the middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed to tight ends, but they allow the fifth-highest completion percentage to the position. Ferguson’s volume has been there, and I think he hits this mark against the Eagles for the second time this year after putting up 91 on them earlier this season.

Josh Allen O32.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114

In five career games against the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has had some stellar performances, and he often puts together strong games on the ground. He’s hit this mark in four of those five games, and he finished with 32 yards in the one game where he came up short. The Bills need every win they can get to make their way into the playoffs, and Allen showed two weeks ago against the Philadelphia Eagles that he’s going to try to drag the team there any way that he can.

Allen has only hit this mark five times this year, but he has hit it in three of his last five outings. The Chiefs are dealing with injuries in their back seven, and that could open up more running lanes for him. I expect the Bills to keep this game close, and, even if they fall behind, Allen is going to stay aggressive all game long. I like him to get on the move in this game.

Jordan Love O1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: +100

Our final play of the week has us going to Monday night where Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love is leading his team against the New York Giants. Love has thrown for 22 touchdowns this season, which is tied for fifth in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes, and he’s thrown for two or more touchdowns in seven out of 12 games this year, including each of his last four games. At even money, I think we’re getting a great price on Love here with how they’ve been running the offense as of late. 

I think the main reason we’re getting this price is due to the Giants’ defensive weaknesses this year. They’ve allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs compared to 14 passing touchdowns for quarterbacks. However, when Green Bay has been in close this year, they’ve been using the run to set up the pass, and I like Love to be able to take advantage of an overmatched and aggressive defense in this one.

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