RADIO
The NFL season rolls on. For those who celebrate, a happy belated Thanksgiving to you. For everyone else, welcome to Week 12 of the NFL season. That calendar just doesn't stop, and before we know it, we'll be counting down the days until next year is here. The gambling landscape remains everchanging with lines shifting constantly, and the books are about as sharp as they have ever been.
There’s no way to put into words how I feel about the last few weeks other than to apologize for the poor performances. Last week was the fifth time this season we have lost a prop by half a yard with Rashee Rice going under. Matthew Stafford had at least five passing attempts wiped out by penalties. Diontae Johnson and Kenny Pickett couldn’t move the ball at all on the day, and Brian Robinson Jr. and the Washington Commanders had six turnovers on the day because they just didn’t feel like scoring. A win from David Montgomery kept it from being a completely winless week, but we are officially in the red for the first time all season.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 12
Evan Engram O45.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -113
Our first prop of the week goes back to a player that has won us money a couple of times this season in the form of Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram. Engram has had a couple of quiet weeks in a row, and I think the books are being a little soft with this number as a result. Before that span, Engram had hit this number five times in his first eight games, including a 67-yard performance against the Houston Texans earlier in the season, and he finished with 45 yards in one of the games in which he came up short.
Engram gives quarterback Trevor Lawrence a strong target in the middle of the field, and that area can be exploited against this Texans' defense. The Texans have given up the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, and they give up an average of 63.5 yards per game to the position. Engram is still receiving nearly all of the tight end receiving work on this team with the other two combining for 11 catches on 14 targets for 90 yards compared to the 59 for 475 that Engram has turned in. This matchup has some shootout potential between two teams that are scrapping for the division title down the stretch.
Isiah Pacheco O65.5 Rushing Yards Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
Our second prop of the week is one that I expect will likely be a rather chalky pick by the time the game rolls around. I went with Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco to go for more than 65.5 rushing yards against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that has simply gotten gashed this season. The Raiders have given up the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, and they’ve allowed opposing backs to hit this mark in four of their last five games, with the lone exception being the football experiment that the New York Jets are running.
Pacheco has only hit this mark four times this season, but he has hit it in back-to-back games, including last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, who lead the league in rushing yards allowed. Pacheco ran 19 times for 89 yards on the night, and he can do that again against this Vegas roster. With Maxx Crosby (knee) doubtful to play, that only makes his job easier. Assuming Kansas City gets out to the lead that I would expect in this matchup, I like Pacheco to turn in a strong performance.
Dalton Kincaid O49.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Our third prop of the week is another receiving prop, and it just so happens to be on another tight end that has won us money in the past in Buffalo Bills rookie Dalton Kincaid. Outside of Stefon Diggs, there has not been a more active pass catcher in this offense than Kincaid over the last month. In five games since October 22, Kincaid has hit this number in all but one game, and the only one he missed was because he was pulled early in last week’s blowout win over the Jets.
He’s averaging 6.8 receptions for 63.6 yards during that stretch, and I think the chemistry is there for the rookie with quarterback Josh Allen. Kincaid and the Bills are in a matchup that has been a bit tough to read as of late. The Eagles started the year with a problem covering the tight end position, but they’re still around the middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed to tight ends. I expect the Bills to have to throw a good bit in this matchup, and Kincaid has been too involved lately to start fading him now.
Keaton Mitchell O6.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
I’ll be the first to admit that this line and bet is one of the goofier ones that we have made this season, but I think it’s worth a look. Baltimore Ravens rookie running back Keaton Mitchell has seen his snaps increase every week since he became activated, and he’s shown off his explosiveness in his limited touch opportunities. Against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that is trending in the wrong direction with one of their best players on injured reserve, Mitchell could be in for a big afternoon.
In four games where he has seen touches, Mitchell has hit this number in three out of the four games. He matches up with a Chargers’ defense that has allowed the third-most receiving yards to opposing backs, including more than 70 receiving yards over the last two weeks to opposing running backs. Mitchell’s volume is the only thing that makes this bet questionable. However, with his big-play ability, he only needs one solid reception to hit this low number.
D.J. Moore O4.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
Our final play of the week goes back to a guy who got us a win in one of the wackier ways possible this year with Chicago Bears wideout DJ Moore getting the call on this one. Moore was credited with a reception on a play when he picked up a ball that had been intercepted and fumbled before fumbling it away himself. It wasn’t easy, but we got the job done. I just think this number doesn’t make much sense when all of the factors surrounding it are added in.
Moore is far and away the leading option in this offense. In quarterback Justin Fields’ return last week, no other pass catcher saw more than four targets while Moore had nine. Moore has hit this mark seven times this season, including against the Minnesota Vikings earlier in the year, and in two different games with quarterback Tyson Bagent under center. If the books want to give us this number against a passing defense that has allowed the third-most completions and is in the top 10 in yards allowed to wideouts, I’m game to take advantage of it.
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