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Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 12 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for four players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a try in rugby, which Ellis applies for touchdowns.
The Pie Shop is back in business with a special Pumpkin Pie format. Here we predict players to score a touchdown this week. Last week, we selected four players and finished 2-2.
For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.
For the second week, we will be cutting this down to four picks and disregarding name value. I will still hold the “Locks” title, but these are players who I believe have the best chances of scoring this week. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 12 Pie Shop.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
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Locks (11-9)
David Montgomery (RB, DET)
Packers @ Lions, 9:30 AM PST
Montgomery is no stranger to playing in Detroit on Thanksgiving. It might be early to have a Thanksgiving feast, but Montgomery will devour this Packers’ run defense. In a game script where the home team is favored by over a touchdown, Montgomery should see a hearty workload throughout the game. I can’t imagine this Packers defense which was recently torched by Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, will hold up against Jahmyr Gibbs and Montgomery.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
Commanders @ Cowboys, 1:30 PM PST
This is probably the least confident “lock” I’ve made, but the process checks out. The Commanders have allowed the fifth most receiving TDs to the TE position (5). Plus, Fergo is currently tied with Davante Adams for the league lead with 18 red zone targets (four more than Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews). The Cowboys are projected to score the most points of any team this weekend, and Ferguson could be one of the many benefactors.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
49ers @ Seahawks, 5:20 PM PST
Call it easy pickings, but I have avoided selecting CMC all year. Since I am forcing myself to pick a player in this match, he is the only one I can confidently say will find the endzone. If you want a deeper selection, I don’t mind Tyler Lockett, but we’re rolling with McCaffrey.
Scoring in 18 of his last 19 games, he is the definition of a touchdown lock. It’s incredible how he continues to dominate the league year after year. Hopefully, I’m not jinxing this by calling it my lay-up selection.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Panthers @ Titans, 10:00 AM PST
We might finally be seeing the start of a decline for one of the league's most dominant backs ever. Henry has increasingly been splitting touches with Tyjae Spears and is very efficient with the opportunities he is getting.
Thankfully, he is in the perfect get-right match-up this week. The Panthers have yet to figure out how to stop opposing rushing offenses and have allowed a league-leading 14 rushing touchdowns to the RB position. They have also allowed the sixth most receiving touchdowns to the position, ultimately allowing 19 touchdowns on the season to the position.
Although we might be seeing the curtain call of Henry’s dominance, he has more than enough juice to dominate a brutal Panthers’ defense.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Bills @ Eagles, Sunday 1:25 PM PST
The last two weeks have not been fun for those relying on Diggs. After back-to-back weeks under 40 yards and no scores, he has a fantastic matchup to get back on track. The Bills, as a whole, have a very tough remaining schedule starting with Philadelphia.
The Eagles are flying high after redeeming their Super Bowl loss on Monday night, however, their secondary still needs work. Thankfully for them, Marquez Valdes-Scantling couldn’t hang onto the ball, but I can’t imagine Diggs will have the same issue. This defense has allowed the most touchdowns to the WR position, and the Bills will need to air it out if they want a chance to win this game.
Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!
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