Rivalry Week: Picks and predictions for Ohio State/Michigan, Florida State/Florida, Oregon State/Oregon, Washington State/Washington and Arizona/Arizona State

November 23, 2023

Week 13 NCAA college football betting picks and matchups previews for Rivalry Week Dominick's top CFB games to watch in Week 13, including betting lines and recommendations.

It has come down to this. There are currently five unbeaten power five teams atop the playoff standings. After this week, one will be guaranteed not to be left standing. Ohio State and Michigan will play the biggest game of the season in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Even more so than 2022, this is for a berth in the playoffs.

Around the rest of the country, we have even more games which could cause a big reversal in what we thought we were heading for just a week ago.

Can Oregon State beat Oregon for the second year in a row? If so, does Arizona beat Arizona State to knock Oregon from the Pac-12 Championship Game? Rivalry week is arguably the best week of games all season. Not just for the outcomes, but because of the true meaning of the game for the two teams involved.

Biggest games of rivalry week:

(2)Ohio State vs. (3)Michigan: Betting Lines: Michigan -3.5(-108) O/U 45.5 O(-115)U(-105)|

The Big Game. In the Big House. While all games between these teams have meaning, this clash between Ohio State and Michigan has even more meaning. This will determine a playoff spot for one and bitter disappointment for the other.

This game will have all the storylines you want in a big matchup. Can Ryan Day finally beat Michigan? If Day beats Michigan and Jim Harbaugh is not there, does it really count? In the case of the playoff committee, it sure will. It will also validate, for Buckeye fans, the notion that Michigan only won the last two matchups because it had Ohio State's signs.

This will pit two of the top defenses in the nation against each other. Michigan comes in with a No. 1 rank in yards allowed at 235.5/game while also ranking No. 2 with 144.8 pass yards allowed and No. 1 in points allowed at 9.0. The Buckeyes come into the matchup with a defense that ranks No. 3 in yards allowed at 252.9/game, No. 2 at 4.0 yards/play, and No. 1 in pass defense allowing only 144.4 yards. When it comes to teams being able to score on the Buckeyes, Ohio State ranks just behind Michigan at 9.4 points/game.

In a game of attrition, which offense can remain on the field will be the winning side. Tre' Henderson and Blake Corum will be the biggest keys as both sides attempt to produce in the run game under the cold, gray skies of Michigan in November.

J.J. McCarthy has tailed off in recent games. Throwing for only 140 yards against Maryland after going just seven of eight against Penn State. Kyle McCord has not lived up to the five-star hype of his recruitment for Ohio State. Nor has he lived up to the recent lineage of Ohio State QBs. If McCord can find Marvin Harrison Jr., this game could be a blowout from Ohio State. But this will be unlikely as Michigan will use its top-ranked pass defense to blanket the best receiver in football. This will be a rock fight. The one who connects with more throws will win and make the playoff.

Betting: Michigan -3.5. Under 45.5

Wash. State vs. (4)Washington: Betting Lines: Washington -16.5 (-110) O/U 67.5 O(-110)U(-110)|

After both teams started the season ranked in the top 25, this final iteration of the Apple Cup with both schools as Pac-12 members was thought to have a lot riding on it. After struggling through the middle of the season, Washington State has far less to play for. Instead of playing for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game, the Cougars are instead playing just to become bowl-eligible.

Washington has held up its end of the bargain and with a win, will finish an undefeated regular season and attempt to make the playoff with a win in the conference title game. Michael Penix Jr. has had a remarkable season leading the Huskies.

The Huskies rank No. 8 in the nation at 482.8 yards/game and rank No. 1 in passing offense with 358.4 yards. In recent games, including a rainstorm Saturday against Oregon State, the defense has also finally come to play. Something Washington will need against a Washington State team that put up 56 points in a 56-14 win over Colorado.

The Cougars will be determined to win. Not just for the bowl eligibility, but also to show big brother what they are leaving behind by joining the Big Ten. Well, this plus the money Washington State and Oregon State are going to keep. Good for them. They deserve it.

Betting: Washington -16.5. Under 67.5

(5)Florida State vs. Florida: Betting Lines: Florida State -6.5 (-115) O/U 49.5 O(-115)U(-105)|

It is a shame what happened to both starting QBs for these teams last week. The hopes of a national championship for Florida State vanished with the gruesome leg injury suffered by star QB Jordan Travis. While the consequences are not as dire for Florida, Their chances of making a bowl game took a hit when Graham Mertz went down with a broken collar bone against Missouri. Both teams will be forced to lean on talented skill players to make things easier for their new starting QBs.

Florida State will rely on Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman to help Tate Rodemaker have a quick transition to the starting job. Florida, for its part, will rely on Trevor Etienne in the run game and Ricky Pearsall in the passing game to muster any offense against a Florida State defense led by Jared Verse. This could cause all types of issues for Florida QB Max Brown as he tries to find his footing early.

While not elite in any category, the Seminoles defense ranks in the top 25 in the country in yards allowed yards/play and pass defense while ranking No. 47 in rush defense. Its 12th-ranked scoring defense, at 16.9 points/game is also solid enough against a Florida offense that averages just 424.8 yards (No. 42) and 29.6 points (No. 51) on the season.

Betting: Florida State -6.5. Over 49.5

(15)Oregon State vs. (6)Oregon: Betting Lines: Oregon 13.5 (-110) O/U 61.5 O(-110)U(-110)|

Much like the Apple Cup, the Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State is likely to be renewed past the collapse of the Pac-12. While this is great for the schools and the sport, it does not mean a hill of beans this week.

Oregon State would love nothing better than to defeat Oregon for the second season in a row. Add to this that this will take Oregon out of the playoff hunt and potentially out of the Pac-12 Championship Game and the Beavers are playing for a lot. It is also playing with house money as it looks to an uncertain future following the season. The Beavers will certainly be facing a new conference and could also be looking to replace one of the best coaches in program history.

While Oregon State is playing for pride, Oregon is playing for much more. A win here and a win against Washington in Las Vegas and the Ducks could quite possibly be the third or fourth team in the playoff. Bo Nix, who passed for 404 yards and six touchdowns against Arizona State will now attempt to finish his Heisman Trophy campaign with the two most important wins of his college career.

With Oregon State averaging 192.5 yards/game and Oregon averaging 196.6 yards, both teams can run the ball down the throat of the opponent. Both offensive lines are elite, and this will allow Bucky Irving and Damien Martinez room to run. But Oregon has the better pass game ranking No. 2 at 350.0 yards/game. Nix has excelled in the Oregon offense while D.J. Uiagalelei has been solid but prone to turnovers with six interceptions to only 20 touchdowns for the Beavers.

Oregon will use its elite offense (547 yards/game) to maul a Beavers team which will play hard but, in the end, come up a bit short. Dan Lanning has not allowed his team to forget what Oregon State was able to do in 2022. After Saturday, Oregon State will not forget this game. If you would like a bonus wager to make here, take D.J. Uiagalelei to throw an interception.

Betting: Oregon -13.5. Under 61.5

(16)Arizona vs. Arizona State: Betting Lines: Arizona -10.5 (-115) O/U 49.5 O(-115)U(-105)|

This one could be fun for Arizona. A terrible Arizona State team will take the field against an Arizona team that is looking to get to 9 wins on the season. Arizona State, at 3-8, does not look to have the talent to compete with the Wildcats.

If Oregon State can beat Oregon on Friday night, Arizona will reach the Pac-12 Championship Game with a victory in the Territorial Cup. This would be a major achievement for a team that finished with just one win two seasons ago.

Betting: Arizona -10.5. Over 49.5

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