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Welcome to my 2024 team-by-team prospect rankings. Over the next few months, I'll be going through all 30 MLB farm systems, ranking my top 10 in each system, and discussing the profiles and long-term outlooks of these players.
After the Chicago Cubs led off the National League Central, the Cincinnati Reds are batting second. This Cincinnati farm system has graduated plenty of exciting prospects over the last few years who are all making impacts at the Major League Level. In 2022, the trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Spencer Steer all debuted along with Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Andrew Abbott, and Noelvi Marte in 2023, among others.
And even after all these graduations, this system is still one of the more exciting organizations in baseball with plenty of exciting talent that you need to know for dynasty leagues, starting with one of their 2023 debuts, Noelvi Marte. After Marte, there's a decent dropoff in my rankings, but the back half of my top-100 overall rankings is filled with Cincinnati prospects, hence this sizeable tier two.
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Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects
1. Noelvi Marte, SS/3B
Age on 4/1/2024: 22.5 | Highest Level: MLB | ETA: Debuted
It feels like Noelvi Marte has been a mainstay in my Top 25 overall for a couple of years now. The 22-year-old Dominican native burst onto the prospect scene back in 2019 with a strong showing in the Dominican Summer League and followed that up with three remarkable consistent seasons in 2021-2023 before his promotion to Cincinnati this past summer.
In 123 plate appearances with the Reds, Marte slashed .316/.366/.456 with 10 extra-base hits, three home runs, and six steals. This following an 11/18 season in 92 MiLB games before his promotion. Marte's Quality of Contact metrics have always been impressive and he showed that in his MLB debut, posting a 46.1% hard-hit rate and 115.6 mph max EV along with a 91st percentile sprint speed. The fact that he's maintained his speed and willingness to run even after adding bulk in 2022 is highly encouraging. Add in a solid approach and contact skills, and you have a potential top-50 fantasy hitter in the making with legit 25/25 upside, especially in Great American Ballpark.
2. Hector Rodriguez, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 20.0 | Highest Level: Hi-A | ETA: 2025
Acquired from the New York Mets in the Tyler Naquin deal, Hector Rodriguez has hit .304 in 206 career minor league games and is coming off a 16/18 season in 115 games in 2023. Rodriguez has long been considered an advanced hitter at the plate, but I think the power is better than people give him credit for with a 90th percentile exit velocity around 102 mph.
In Great American Ballpark, Rodriguez could approach 20 homers annually with a solid average and 20+ steals as well. The only concern I have is how aggressive he was in 2023 with the walk rate dipping to 5.6%. Rodriguez makes for a solid value buy in dynasty leagues though as the perceived value doesn't appear to be as high as I believe it should be.
3. Carlos Jorge, 2B
Age on 4/1/2024: 20.5 | Highest Level: Hi-A | ETA: 2025
Carlos Jorge has been a prospect I've been fairly high on for a couple of years now. After swiping 54 bags in 89 combined rookie ball games in 2021 and 2022, Jorge finally bumped up to full-season Single-A in 2023 where he slashed .282/.374/.464 in 109 games with 36 extra-base hits, 12 home runs, and 32 steals. I'm not putting much stock into his rough showing in Hi-A.
Jorge has proven to be an advanced hitter for his age with above-average speed. However, he didn't progress in the power department as hoped this season, so I'm now wondering if he's going to be more than a 15-homer option. However, given the AVG, OBP, and SB that he potentially could bring to the table, Jorge could still develop into a decent fantasy option at the second base position, or wherever he winds up on the diamond.
4. Blake Dunn, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 25.6 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2024
By the time my next big overall prospect rankings update goes live, Blake Dunn might be a few spots higher than this as he's one of the harder prospects for me to rank right now. Given that he's 25 and wasn't really on many people's radar entering 2023, it's easy to see why there's a wide range of ranks for Dunn right now after his monster 2023 season. Dunn exploded for 23 home runs and 54 steals in 124 games between Hi-A and Double-A with .312/.425/.522 slash line.
Even if we forget his 54 steals, Dunn was one of just 10 hitters in the minors this past season to have a .300+ AVG, .200+ ISO, and 10+% walk rate over 400+ plate appearances. There are a lot of exciting names on that list, but none could even sniff Dunn's SB total. With his solid contact skills, plus speed, and around average raw power, Dunn could continue to surprise people and develop into an outfielder who could provide sneaky-good fantasy value, especially in Great American Ball Park.
5. Ricardo Cabrera, SS
Age on 4/1/2024: 19.4 | Highest Level: Lo-A | ETA: 2026
One of the bigger signings in the 2021-2022 international period, Ricardo Cabrera broke out in 2023 after coming stateside. In 39 games for Cincinnati's Complex Level squad, Cabrera slashed .360/.469/.559 with 16 extra-base hits and 21 steals.
It's always hard to project how a 16-year-old international prospect's hit tool will translate into games, but Cabrera has impressed in that regard and is a plus runner as well. Those two tools give him a nice base to work off of and Cabrera could realistically jump into my top 25 overall if he adds more power in 2024.
6. Edwin Arroyo, SS
Age on 4/1/2024: 20.6 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2025
For the first few months of the 2022 season, Edwin Arroyo's name was trending up in a hurry given the performance in the Lo-A California League. However, Arroyo's production has dropped off since he was traded to the Reds last summer. In 123 games in 2023, mostly at Hi-A, Arroyo slashed a respectable .252/.324/.433 and was able to rack up 52 extra-base hits, 13 home runs, and 29 steals while keeping his strikeout rate in check at 21.3%.
Even through the struggles since the trade, Arroyo's contact rates have remained decent and he's an above-average runner with fringe-average power along with being a standout defender at shortstop. I'd be willing to buy low in dynasty leagues right now.
7. Chase Petty, P
Age on 4/1/2024: 20.9 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2025
Over the last few seasons, the Reds have brought up Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbot, and several others. And even after all of that, they still have a top-10 caliber pitching prospect in Chase Petty. In my eyes, Petty remains pretty underrated, even after a strong showing in 2023 where he finished with a 1.72 ERA and 5.5% walk rate in 18 starts this past season. But on the flip side, Petty's strikeout rate was a pedestrian 24.1%.
I'm focusing more on Petty's low walk rate than his strikeout rate, which isn't even that bad. Petty strikeout rate can absolutely tick up given his three-pitch mix of above-average or better offerings along with above-average to plus command and control as well. I'm not going to say there's ace upside here, but Petty could certainly become a #2 at the highest level.
8. Cam Collier, 3B
Age on 4/1/2024: 19.3 | Highest Level: Lo-A | ETA: 2026
After an underwhelming 2023 season in Lo-A, Cam Collier has tumbled down rankings quite a bit. In 111 games, Collier slashed .246/.349/.356 along with a half dozen home runs and a .110 ISO. When he was drafted, Collier was considered to be a plus hitter with power projection. And while his surface stats might not indicate as much, that's still the player he projects to be and was under the hood in 2023.
Collier's contact rate hovered around a decent 75% mark and his AVG EV was around the Major League average. For a player that was 18 this season in Lo-A, I'll absolutely take that. Collier is going to have to stand out with the bat as he provides minimal speed, but the tools are there for that to be the case down the road. Collier makes for a great buy-low in dynasty leagues this offseason.
9. Rhett Lowder, P
Age on 4/1/2024: 22.1 | Highest Level: NCAA | ETA: 2025
After back-to-back standout years in 2022 and 2023 at Wake Forest, the Reds selected Rhett Lowder with the 7th overall pick in the 2023 draft and he will make his professional debut in 2024.
Lowder might not possess quite the same lofty upside as Skenes, Waldrep, or Meyer, but you could make an argument that Lowder has the highest floor of any pitcher in the 2023 draft class thanks to plus command and control over three above-average to plus offerings. Lowder should move quickly through the Reds system and has the upside of a back-end #2 starter down the road.
10. Rece Hinds, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 23.6 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2024
Recently, I put a tweet out saying that there here were only two prospects (min 200 PA) under the age of 24 this past season to have over 50% of their hits go for extra-bases while converting 75+% of their SB attempts (min 20 attempts). Rece Hinds was one of those two players. In 109 games for Double-A Chattanooga, Hinds slashed .269/.330/.536 with 29 doubles, 23 home runs, and 20 steals. Hinds has always shown plus or better raw power to all parts of the ballpark and has the athleticism to add double-digit steals as well.
So why is he not higher in these rankings? Well, Hinds has prominent swing-and-miss concerns in his profile. He struck out 32.8% of the time in 2023 and 33.8% in his 245 career minor league games. Unless he can improve in that area, I'm not sure he'll be able to stick as a Major League regular for a long period of time. Let's hope he can though, as the upside in Great American Ballpark is intriguing.
If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see the full top 40 along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.
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