RADIO
The NFL season continues to chug along, and we’re into Week 11. We’re still in the green after 10 weeks, but we’ve given about five units back to the books over the last three weeks. I’d be lying if I said that I wasn’t ticked off about it. I can handle losses where we had a bad read, but some of the ways that we’re carrying these Ls home just doesn’t sit right with me, and I’m ready to really hunker down and lock in to finish the year out strong.
Without a doubt, that was our worst week for this column by a country mile. We went just 1-4 on the week, and every loss seemed worse than the last. Christian Watson was targeted downfield on several occasions, but he couldn’t reel in any of them while his teammates all got in on the deep action. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had nine yards on the team’s first drive, but he went catchless over the final three quarters. The Detroit Lions put up 41 points with Jared Goff throwing for 333 yards, but Sam LaPorta only finished with 40 yards on the day. The final loss was New Orleans Saints wideout Michael Thomas, who had two targets on the first drive before exiting the game with an ankle injury. It was a day of brutal loss after brutal loss.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 11
Rashee Rice O42.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -113
For our first prop this week, we’re going out to Monday Night Football for the game of the week between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams are coming off the bye ahead of their Super Bowl 57 rematch. Right off the bat, we’re going to target this Eagles secondary with rookie wideout Rashee Rice. Rice has been the most consistent true wideout for the Chiefs this year, and coming off of the bye, I think he sees even more of an uptick in his workload moving forward.
After hitting this mark just once in his first five games, Rice hit it in three out of four games heading into the bye week. Excluding tight end Travis Kelce, he leads the Chiefs in targets, receptions, and yards, and he’s tied with Kelce with four receiving touchdowns. The Eagles have given up the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, and I think this game ends up being another high-scoring affair with a lot of points put up on the board.
Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: +100
This is a market that we haven’t dabbled in since way back in Week 3, but we’re coming back to the well. I like Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. to find the end zone against this New York Giants defense. Robinson has had a nose for the end zone this season as he’s tied for fourth in the NFL with eight total touchdowns this year. Against this same Giants team that he saw back in Week 7, he found the end zone despite having just eight carries for 23 yards on the day.
The Giants have allowed a total of 12 touchdowns to running backs this season, and they’ve allowed four running back touchdowns over their last three games. They’re second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, and they’re just struggling to stop anyone without the assistance of severe rain or bad weather. Even if that occurs, that just gives more reason for Washington to hand the ball off, and when Washington’s in close, Robinson is the guy the vast majority of the time.
Diontae Johnson O4.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: +120
I’ll be the first to admit that this line very easily could be a trap that I’m taking the bait on. Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson doesn’t have a great matchup, and he’s coming off an absolute dud of a game against the Green Bay Packers. However, I think that doesn’t tell the full tale. Green Bay couldn’t stop the run to save their lives in that game, and Pittsburgh just didn’t have to throw the ball all that often. Quarterback Kenny Pickett attempted just 23 passes, and George Pickens was the leading receiver with a whopping 45 yards while no pass catcher saw more than four targets.
In the three previous games since returning from injury, Johnson had seen six or more targets in each game, and he had at least five receptions in all three games. The Cleveland Browns have given up the second-fewest completions to wide receivers this year, and they don’t give up a ton of yards. However, they’re fifth in the league in pressure rate, and they’re first in air yards allowed on completions. When teams complete passes against them, it’s on underneath stuff, so I like Johnson to be a safety valve often for Pickett in this one.
David Montgomery O48.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
We’re getting Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery in a great spot this week in a revenge game against his old team. The books seem kind of confused about how to handle this Detroit backfield, and I think we can use that to our advantage here. Last week, Montgomery was outsnapped by Jahmyr Gibbs in his return from injury, but that game was also a bit of a shootout which resulted in more receiving work for Gibbs. I don’t see Chicago lighting up the scoreboard quite as much here.
I think the chalky play could be Montgomery to score a touchdown against his former squad, but I like the rushing yards angle here. Detroit is running the ball exceptionally well, and despite matching up with a team that’s sixth by DVOA against the run, I think they can be had by this Detroit rushing attack. Montgomery has hit this number in five of his six games this season with the lone exception being the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that he left early in a blowout victory with an injury. I like Monty at this low number this week.
Matthew Stafford O34.5 Passing Attempts
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
I’ll admit right away that this is a risky play trying to target a guy who is returning from a thumb injury that caused him to miss the team’s previous game, but I think that we have a good opportunity in this one. Stafford has hit this number four times in eight games this year, including in the team’s Week 1 blowout over these Seattle Seahawks. This team has too good of pass-catchers to not get the ball going through the air.
In this matchup, the Rams draw a defense that has given up the 11th-fewest rushing yards this year compared to the 11th-most passing yards per game allowed. This defense is gettable through the air, and I think rather than airing it out, we could see Stafford and the Rams try to wear this defense out by getting the ball out of his hands quickly to his playmakers. It plays right into our hands on this one.
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