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Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 11 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for four players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a try in rugby, which Ellis applies for touchdowns.
The Pie Shop is back in business. Here we predict players to score a touchdown this week. Last week, we tried a new format and finished with two correct selections.
For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.
For the second week, we will be cutting this down to four picks and disregarding name value. I will still hold the “Locks” title, but these are players who I believe have the best chances of scoring this week. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 11 Pie Shop.
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Locks (9-7)
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Bengals @ Ravens, Thursday 5:15 PM PST
Originally, I wrote this for Tee Higgins; however, he is unlikely to play. As a result, we're pivoting to Ja'Marr Chase. This Ravens team has done a great job containing Ja’Marr Chase in their previous matchups, holding him to one touchdown in their five games. However, if the Bengals are going to have a chance to stay in this one, Chase will need to be on his "always open" behavior.
The Ravens are a great defense. Despite the Browns managing a miraculous win last week, that was their first game allowing more than 24 points. They have also held opponents to fewer than 10 points four times this season.
Burrow will need to have at least two passing touchdowns to win this game. It'll be no secret who Burrow will be looking to, but Ja’Marr Chase has the talent to make any defense miss.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Chargers @ Packers, Sunday 10:00 AM PST
Coming off an impressive shootout loss to the Lions, the Chargers face another NFC North opponent. However, unlike the Lions who are among the best against the run, they face a Packers team that was torched by the Steelers RBs in Week 10.
Although the defensive stats are solid, if you watched their game last week, the Steelers’ RBs were finding the open field on almost every attempt. Both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren averaged over five yards per carry and had a combined 183 rushing yards on 31 attempts.
Since Ekeler has been back from injury, this offense is built on him and Keenan Allen. I expect this Chargers team will use this as a “get right” game, and their defense will torture Jordan Love. If that’s the case, it’s a positive gamescript for Ekeler. Even if they find themselves behind, we know he is always a threat in the receiving game as well.
Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)
Raiders @ Dolphins, 10:00 AM PST
Coming off their bye week, this Dolphins team will be very aware of the narrative that they can’t win against good teams. Unfortunately for them, a matchup with the Raiders will not fix that. However, it’s definitely a matchup that they should easily exploit.
The Raiders are allowing the third-most yards to the WR position per game. They also just allowed Zach Wilson to support Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin for a combined 16 receptions and 163 yards. The only downside I see for this Dolphins team is if they make it a blowout early. However, if that’s the case, I trust Hill will be a big part of their lead.
James Conner (RB, ARI)
Cardinals @ Texans
A rejuvenated Cardinals team travels to Houston to take on the league’s hottest QB. Thankfully, this Cardinals team has Kyler Murray and James Conner back, who both looked really good last week.
Conner’s 16 rushing attempts commanded the backfield with other RBs only having three combined attempts. Conner was also a victim of Clayton Tune and Kyler Murray's "vulturing" rushing touchdowns inside the 10. This game could be a shootout, and the Texans are allowing two rushing TDs per game to the RB position. James Conner is a lock for a touchdown and could easily find two in this matchup.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Eagles @ Chiefs, Monday 5:20 PM PST
The second of two incredible prime time games this week. In a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs and Eagles come off their bye and head into a massive matchup. I am sure Kelce enjoyed his time in Argentina, but I am not worried that he won’t be ready to go on Monday.
This Chiefs team is truly Patrick Mahomes and Kelce (with a bit of Isiah Pacheco). Although we have seen this duo have some limitations, the Eagles are allowing the most touchdowns to the TE position. They also allow the fifth-most receptions and sixth-most yards to the position. I expect Kelce will make or break this offense's performance. When in doubt, I’ll bet on Mahomes and Kelce finding their groove.
Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!
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