RADIO
Well, a little more than halfway through the season, it has been a heck of a ride thus far. Through nine weeks, we’ve made 45 player props, and we have a record of 26-19 while being up 4.66 units. We’ve had some tight losses this year, but it’s ultimately still a profitable season overall. Over the final several weeks, we have a great opportunity to try to stack this money up even more.
After just our second losing week of the year in Week 8, we bounced back with a 3-2 performance in Week 9. Our three wins were all easy wins, and our two losses were interesting in how we got there. The Indianapolis Colts led much of the game, but running back Jonathan Taylor just couldn’t get as much going. As far as Jalen Hurts was concerned, the Philadelphia Eagles just put a lid on Dallas in the second half, and he wasn’t throwing the ball nearly as much as we needed.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 10
Christian Watson O19.5 Longest Reception
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -110
From a fantasy football perspective, Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson has been a massive letdown. However, when it comes to catching deep passes on a weekly basis, he’s been pretty good at that one. Watson has hit this mark in four of his five games played this season, and he missed by just three yards in the lone week where he came up short. At 17.3 yards, Watson is third in the NFL in average depth of target.
In Week 10, the Packers have a matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers have the defensive front to make life difficult on quarterback Jordan Love, but they have been a bit soft on the back end this year. Pittsburgh gives up the fourth-longest yards per reception to opposing wide receivers, and I think Watson has a chance to take advantage of this suspect secondary.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine O18.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
This is an under-the-radar line that I came across ahead of Thursday Night Football, and I was interested to see where it would open this week. Tennessee Titans wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine doesn’t see a ton of volume, but he does often see his targets further down the field. He’s hit this number in six of his eight games this year, including each of quarterback Will Levis’ first two starts.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a strong run defense still, but they have been softer in the secondary. They’ve allowed the third-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, and they give up the sixth-longest yards per reception to the position. We’ve seen through two weeks that Levis is willing to take shots down the field, and, if the Bucs are able to put up some points early in this one, we could see a potential shootout brewing on our hands.
Bijan Robinson O55.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has been one of the more difficult players to figure out this season. Granted, this is due in large part to head coach Arthur Smith seemingly having no allegiance to the highly drafted players on the team. Outside of wideout Drake London, the team's top two draft selections from the past three years have seen their touches fluctuate dramatically.
After hitting this mark in three of his first four games, Robinson has hit it just once in the last five games, including a frustratingly confusing game where he had just one carry for three yards three weeks ago. Now, he gets the Arizona Cardinals defense that is ripe to be torn apart. The Cardinals have given up the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing backs, and Robinson is the perfect type of back to take advantage of them while the head coach works to limit the damage his quarterback can do.
Sam LaPorta O50.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has been far and away the biggest revelation at the position this season. He’s fourth overall in fantasy scoring, and he’s been consistent week after week. The Lions made him a key part of their passing offense right behind wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, and he’s rewarded them by hitting this mark in five of his eight games this year. Coming off of his bye week, he’s primed to make it six of nine games.
The Los Angeles Chargers are a strong offense, and they’ve been improving some on defense. However, this Lions’ passing attack is different than the majority of ones they’ve matched up with this season. Against tight ends, they’ve given up the second-most yards to tight ends per game this season, and they just got torn up by Travis Kelce a couple of weeks back. LaPorta is on that level yet, but he’s a young player that is making his way there.
Michael Thomas O41.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
The last play of the week is another receiving yards play, but there are some strong opportunities this week in that arena. New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas doesn’t have the ceiling that he did a couple of years ago, but he does have one of the safer floors that we’ve seen among wideouts this year. Thomas had hit this mark in eight straight games to start the year prior to last week’s one-target and zero-catch outing. He’s in a great bounce-back spot.
The Minnesota Vikings are blitzing at an incredible rate this year, and that often results in a lot of throws underneath. That’s where Thomas has been making his hay. The Vikings give up a 68.4 completion percentage to wide receivers, which is the eighth-highest mark allowed. When Minnesota gives up yards, it’s through the air. Thomas’ game last week was an outlier, and he should get back to the consistent floor that he had shown us to start the year.
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