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Mike Fanelli gives his fantasy football bold predictions for Week 10 of the NFL season, giving fantasy players something to think about when setting their lineups.
Week 10 is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Kyler Murray, Tony Pollard, Keaton Mitchell, DeAndre Hopkins, and Dalton Kincaid.
Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely outcomes, they are things I believe could happen this week.
Let’s look at my five bold predictions for Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Kyler Murray…
Has a top-five finish in his season debut
Barring a last-minute hiccup, Murray will make his season debut Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. While fantasy players might be nervous playing the former No. 1 overall pick after nearly a year off the field, Murray has been a fantasy superstar his entire career. Last year, the former Oklahoma star was the QB8, averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game over the first 12 weeks. Yet, he was a top-eight quarterback despite missing two games with a hamstring injury.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have struggled to slow down opposing quarterbacks. They have surrendered 18.4 fantasy points per game to quarterback, the sixth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, Atlanta has been awful outside of the Week 1 matchup against Bryce Young. The Falcons have given up 19.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks since opening weekend, surrendering at least 16.2 in all but one contest.
More importantly, Atlanta has been a fantasy goldmine for opposing quarterbacks lately. Over the past four weeks, they’ve surrendered 2.5 passing touchdowns and 22.2 fantasy points per game to the position. Furthermore, all four quarterbacks finished top-12, including three inside the top seven. More importantly, Joshua Dobbs was the QB5 in Week 9 against the Falcons despite not starting the game and joining the team on Tuesday.
Tony Pollard…
Is the RB1 in Week 10
Last year, Pollard was the RB7, averaging 14.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. When the Dallas Cowboys released Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason, fantasy players had high hopes for the former Memphis star. Unfortunately, he hasn’t lived up to the hype. The veteran is the RB21 for the year, averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he has struggled lately.
Over the past six weeks, Pollard has been the RB33, averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game. He scored fewer than 7.9 fantasy points in all but one contest. However, the former Memphis star has faced multiple talented run defenses. Thankfully, that isn’t the case against the New York Giants this week. The NFC East bottom dwellers have surrendered 21.8 fantasy points per game to running backs, the sixth-most in the NFL.
Pollard has been a favorite buy-low target for me over the past few weeks. His rest of the season schedule is fantasy-friendly, and the veteran has maintained his featured workload. The last time the former Memphis star faced the Giants was in Week 1. He had two rushing touchdowns and 21.1 fantasy points on only 14 rushing attempts. More importantly, Josh Jacobs was the RB2 with 98 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and 21.8 fantasy points against New York last week. Expect Pollard to have a similar fantasy performance.
Keaton Mitchell…
Outscores Gus Edwards
There hasn’t been a hotter running back than Edwards lately. Over the past three weeks, the veteran is the RB1, averaging 22.2 half-point PPR fantasy points and two rushing touchdowns per game. However, he has become a touchdown-or-bust running back. Over 54% of his fantasy production has come from the rushing touchdowns over the past three weeks. Meanwhile, he averaged only 6.5 fantasy points per game over the first six contests.
Meanwhile, Mitchell got the chance to play on offense in Week 9. The former Eastern Carolina star was the RB5, scoring 19.9 fantasy points in the win over the Seattle Seahawks. He only had nine rushing attempts in the game. However, the rookie totaled 138 rushing yards and a touchdown. Furthermore, Mitchell had multiple runs of over 40 yards against Seattle.
The Ravens face the Cleveland Browns in a critical AFC North matchup. Cleveland has been outstanding at keeping running backs out of the end zone, surrendering only two rushing touchdowns to the position this year. However, the Browns struggled with home-run hitters. According to Fantasy Points Data, they have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate this season (7.3%). Don’t be surprised if Mitchell breaks off a big run or two while Edwards is kept out of the end zone.
DeAndre Hopkins…
Has at least two receiving touchdowns
Fantasy players were frustrated with Hopkins to start the year. The veteran was the WR50, averaging 7.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over the first four weeks, scoring fewer than 10.1 in every contest. However, the former Clemson star has played better lately. Over the past five weeks, Hopkins has been the WR8 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 15.5 fantasy points per contest.
The veteran has had two monster performances lately. He scored 18 fantasy points and averaged 17.5 receiving yards per reception in Week 5. Hopkins scored 32.8 fantasy points and averaged 32 receiving yards per reception in Week 8 with Will Levis under center. More importantly, the former Clemson star has been used more downfield with the rookie quarterback. He had an aDOT of 14.2 with Ryan Tannehill starting compared to 16.6 with Levis.
Meanwhile, Hopkins has an excellent matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. They have surrendered 35.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the second-most in the NFL. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has given up 10 receiving touchdowns to the position, the fourth-most in the league. Last week, the Buccaneers gave up four receiving touchdowns to the Houston Texans wide receivers. Don’t be surprised if Hopkins has his second three-touchdown performance this year.
Dalton Kincaid…
Is the top-scoring tight end
While Sam LaPorta has been the top rookie tight end this season, Kincaid has played well lately. Over the first six weeks, the former Utah star was the TE33, averaging 4.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he has been outstanding since the Buffalo Bills lost Dawson Knox to a wrist injury. The rookie has been the TE5, averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game over the past three weeks.
Kincaid has 23 receptions on 25 targets for 221 receiving yards and a touchdown over the past three games. The rookie is second in targets but first in receptions and receiving yards over the past three weeks. More importantly, he has the second-highest target per route run rate (24%) and the second-highest first-read targets over the past three games (per Fantasy Points Data).
More importantly, the former Utah star has an excellent matchup on Monday night. The Denver Broncos have surrendered 12.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends this year, the fourth-most in the NFL. They have given up 18 or more fantasy points to tight ends in nearly half of their games this season. Over their past five games, Denver has surrendered 15.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends. With Travis Kelce on a bye, Kincaid will be the TE1 in Week 10.
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