X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

NFL Touchdown Predictions for Week 10: The Fantasy Football Pie Shop (2023)

Aaron Jones - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 10 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for four players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a try in rugby, which Ellis applies for touchdowns.

The Pie Shop is back in business. Here we predict players to score a touchdown this week. Last week, was not our best week, finishing with only one correct lock pick. So far the real success we’ve had has been our locks. As a result, we are switching up the format again.

For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.

We are creating a new format. Instead of providing six selections that range from uncommon to locks, I will only have a “locks section”. As a result, we will be cutting this down to four picks and disregarding name values. This is truly who I believe has the best chance of scoring this week. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 10 Pie Shop.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Locks (7-4)

Aaron Jones (RB, GB)

Packers @ Steelers, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

Aaron Jones is officially back. After exploding in the receiving game in Week One, Jones strained his hamstring. Three games since returning from injury, we finally saw the veteran lead this offense to their third win of the year.

Jones is one of my favorite players in the league, not only being a star for fantasy but also being a Walter Peyton Man of the Year Nominee. It's impossible to watch the MLF tweet below and not smile (unless you are a Bears fan).

In Weeks seven and eight, A.J. Dillon out carried Jones 21-15. Heading into Week Nine, we heard Matt Lafleur talk about unleashing Jones and went on to give him 20 carries and six targets.

Jones is clearly the most stable part of this offense, and he should continue to be featured regardless of the game script. This week the Packers face a Steelers defense that is allowing the second most rushing yards to the RB position. Additionally, the Steelers’ elite pass rushers may force Jordan Love to check down more frequently. It’s shaping up to be another good week for the veteran and I expect he’ll open the Pie Shop for the second week in a row.

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

Titans @ Buccaneers, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

Now that Will Levis is starting for the Titans, this game has great shootout potential. Both these teams pride themselves in their ability to stop the run and relatively ignore their secondary together. Plus, both the QBs aren’t afraid to sling it around the yard.

Baker should have a Mayfield day this week (see what I did there?). The Titans are allowing 230 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game to the WR position. Considering this passing attack is very concentrated between Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, both should have big days.

Evans is clearly Mayfield's favorite big play and red zone weapon, scoring in five of his eight games this season. Last week, he had a 53-yard bomb where he was dragged down on the one, calling back a score. Evans should be able to use his size and dominate the Titans' corners. This game should be selling pies left right and center, and I’m confident Evans will get his hands on one of them.

Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)

Giants @ Cowboys, Sunday 1:25 PM PST

Arguably the most disappointing fantasy player of this season is looking for only his third touchdown of the season. Yes, you read that right, he only has two touchdowns this season, and both came in Week One in their first game against the Giants.

What makes Pollard so disappointing is that he is getting all of the work fantasy managers had hoped for. His 120 attempts and 35 targets are good for 12th and sixth in the league respectively. Plus, this Cowboys offense has been heating up.

Thankfully, this week they face the team they shut out 40-0 in Week One, AND they’re on their third setting QB. I don’t think there is a more positive projected gamescript for the Cowboys running game. The Giants are also allowing the fourth-most rushing yards and fifth-most rushing touchdowns to the position. If Pollard is ever going to turn his season around, it has to start this week. 

Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)

Jets @ Raiders, Sunday 5:20 PM PST

This is not a fun offense to predict touchdowns. Even though Hall and Garrett Wilson are elite young players in the NFL, they can only control so much with Zach Wilson under center.

The Jets are built to rely on their defense to keep them afloat, with a solid ground game to keep the pressure off Zach Wilson. This week against a rejuvenated Raiders team is the perfect matchup for their style of play.

The Raiders are allowing the third most rushing yards to the RB position and the eighth most rushing attempts against. This Jets defense should have a field day against rookie Aiden O’Connell, and Hall should be the primary benefactor. His 12+ carries and three-plus targets in each of his last four games should bode well for him to find the pay dirt.

 

Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jeremy Sochan

Expected To Miss EuroBasket With Calf Injury
Trae Young

'Resigned' To Idea Of No Extension This Offseason
Malik Washington

Firmly Entrenched as Dolphins' WR3
Chris Olave

Rashid Shaheed Not Expected to Play on Sunday
Tennessee Titans

L'Jarius Sneed Nearing Return From Knee Injury
Cleveland Browns

Browns Planning to Roster Four Quarterbacks?
Jermaine Burton

Misses Practice on Sunday
Sean Tucker

to Be More Involved in Buccaneers Offense
Matthew Stafford

Will Return to Practice on Monday
Skylar Thompson

Shines In Preseason Victory
Ke'Shawn Williams

Leads Pittsburgh In Receiving
Luther Burden III

to Play in Preseason Opener
Roman Wilson

Involved In Preseason Opener
Tua Tagovailoa

Dressed to Start in Preseason Opener
Tyreek Hill

Jaylen Waddle Not Dressed for Preseason Opener
Darnell Washington

Scores In Win Over Jaguars
Tyjae Spears

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Hunter Greene

Expected to Return Wednesday
Bobby Witt Jr.

Dealing With Stiff Back
Kaleb Johnson

Bottled Up In Preseason Debut
Mason Rudolph

Tosses Touchdown In Preseason Win
Kalel Mullings

Leads Titans in Rushing on Saturday
Calvin Ridley

Shows Early Chemistry With Cam Ward
Rhamondre Stevenson

Not Practicing on Sunday
Cameron Ward

Cam Ward Turns in Solid Preseason Debut
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite to Win at Watkins Glen
Kyle Larson

Is Kyle Larson a Must-Play in DFS at Watkins Glen?
Chase Elliott

an Easy Pick to Make in DFS at Watkins Glen
Chris Buescher

Trying to Repeat at Watkins Glen
Tyler Reddick

Struggling to Find Speed at Watkins Glen
Michael McDowell

a Legitimate Threat at Watkins Glen
Joey Logano

Has Been Solid at Watkins Glen in Next Gen Car
Todd Gilliland

Has Upside at Watkins Glen
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. has Favorable Watkins Glen Record
Justin Haley

Fastest in Practice at Watkins Glen
Riley Herbst

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play
Connor Zilisch

Withdraws Cup Series Entry from Watkins Glen After Injury
Christopher Bell

Should not be Underestimated this Week at Watkins Glen
Chase Briscoe

May Remain Hot at Watkins Glen
Ty Gibbs

Is Ty Gibbs Worth Rostering At Watkins Glen This Week For DFS?
Ross Chastain

Should DFS Managers Roster Ross Chastain at Watkins Glen?
Kyle Busch

Could Be One to Watch at Watkins Glen
Carson Hocevar

May Be Too Big of A DFS Risk for Watkins Glen Lineups
Daniel Suarez

Is Daniel Suarez Worth Rostering At Watkins Glen For DFS?
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Is Difficult to Recommend for Watkins Glen DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Should Austin Cindric be Considered For Watkins Glen DFS Lineups?
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Homers Twice in Win
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Drawing Interest from Knicks, Celtics
Trea Turner

Homers, Drives in Five in Productive Night
Haywood Highsmith

Undergoes Successful Knee Surgery
NHL

Jakub Vrana Signs Two-Year Deal in Sweden
COL

Avalanche Bring Back Joel Kiviranta on One-Year Deal
Matthew Tkachuk

Could Miss 2-3 Months with Surgery
Edward Cabrera

Punches Out 11 in Victory
Chase Burns

Superb in 10-Strikeout Performance
Mason McTavish

Several Teams Keeping Tabs on Mason McTavish
LA

Kyle Clifford Hangs Up Skates
Elias Pettersson

Out for "Revenge" in 2025-26
Roman Dolidze

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Semyon Varlamov

to Start Skating Next Week
Anthony Hernandez

Set For UFC Vegas 109 Main Event
VAN

Vitali Kravtsov Returns to Canucks
Steve Erceg

In Dire Need Of Victory
Iasmin Lucindo

Aims To Bounce Back
Angela Hill

Set For A Main-Card Bout
Christian Rodriguez

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 109
Andre Fili

Set For His 24th UFC Fight
Miles Johns

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jean Matsumoto

Looks To Bounce Back
Christian Leroy Duncan

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Eryk Anders

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 109 Main Card
Drake Baldwin

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Josh Naylor

Day-to-Day With Shoulder Soreness
Michael King

to Return Saturday
Payton Pritchard

Eager to Continue Improving
Austin Reaves

Expected to Receive Massive Pay Raise with Next Contract
Jayson Tatum

Out of Walking Boot
San Antonio Spurs

Spurs Bring in Micah Potter for Training Camp
Harrison Ingram

Re-Signs with Spurs
Zack Wheeler

Pushed Back to Sunday With Shoulder Stiffness
Roman Anthony

Agrees to Eight-Year Extension
NBA

Richaun Holmes Moves to Panathinaikos on Two-Year Deal
Maverick McNealy

Attempts to Bounce Back at Memphis
Bennedict Mathurin

to Become Regular Starter for Pacers
Darius Garland

Cavaliers Not Rushing Darius Garland Back
Kurt Kitayama

Could Get Hot at Memphis
PGA

Sungjae Im a Volatile Risk at FedEx St. Jude
Riley Minix

Signs New Two-Way Deal with Spurs
Harry Hall

Playing Well as Playoffs Approach
Chris Boucher

Signs One-Year, $3.3 Million Deal with Celtics
PGA

Chris Gotterup on Impressive Run Heading to Memphis
Georges Niang

Returns to Utah
Harris English

Ready for the Playoffs
Bud Cauley

Trying to Reverse Course at Memphis
Daniel Berger

Hoping to Contend at FedEx St. Jude
Luke Keaschall

Launches First Career Home Run
Scottie Scheffler

Continues Dominance Ahead of TPC Southwind
Collin Morikawa

Eyes Major Bounce Back at TPC Southwind
Michael Kim

Looking to Find Rhythm at TPC Southwind
PGA

Victor Hovland Eyeing Another Strong Finish at TPC Southwind
Ben Griffin

Brings High-Upside Value to TPC Southwind
Shea Langeliers

Has Three-Homer Evening Tuesday
Matt Fitzpatrick

Staying Red-Hot Entering TPC Southwind
Patrick Cantlay

Eyeing Another Strong Finish at TPC Southwind
Ludvig Aberg

Needs a Complete Week at TPC Southwind
Roman Anthony

to Return on Wednesday
Gleyber Torres

Scratched from Tuesday's Lineup
DAL

Anton Khudobin Announces Retirement
Miro Heiskanen

Back at 100 Percent Ahead of New Season
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Miss Start of Season
Nick Lodolo

Reds Place Nick Lodolo on Injured List With Finger Blister
NHL

Jimmy Vesey Moves Abroad
ANA

Sam Colangelo Signs Two-Year Extension
NYI

Matthew Schaefer Signs Entry-Level Contract with Islanders
NBA

Brandon Boston Jr. Inks Deal with Fenerbahce
NBA

Jeff Dowtin Jr. Joins Six-Time EuroLeague Champions
NBA

Lonnie Walker IV Agrees to Three-Year Contract with Maccabi Tel Aviv
Neemias Queta

Working Back From Knee Surgery
Johnny Juzang

Links Up with Timberwolves
Ricky Council IV

Joins Nets on One-Year Contract
Aaron Judge

To Return To Yankees On Tuesday
Michael King

Could Make Next Start With Padres
Michael Soroka

To Go On Injured List
Nick Lodolo

Exits Early With Blister
Roman Anthony

Dealing With Back Tightness