Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates - NFL Rookies to Surge in Second-Half

October 28, 2023

Which rookies will break out in fantasy football's 2023 season? Tony investigates standout performers and promising talent.

When it comes to fantasy football rookies, most don't become dominant producers right from the start.

Typically, early injuries or bye weeks open up opportunities for them to get more playing time, allowing them to earn a role. By the halfway point of the season, a significant number of teams have had their bye weeks, and everyone has experienced their fair share of injuries.

So, which rookies are poised to break out in the second half of the season? Let's take a closer look.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) rankings
• Quarterback (QB) rankings
• Tight end (TE) rankings
• Defense (D/ST) rankings
• Kicker (K) rankings
• FLEX rankings
• Dynasty rankings

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

After posting his third straight game with 10 or more PPR points, making it five out of seven games in total, many might argue that Rashee Rice has already broken out. His Week 7 performance, which included five catches for 60 yards and one touchdown, showcased his potential in the high-powered Chiefs' offense.

Despite ranking only sixth on the Chiefs in routes run (119), he's second only to Travis Kelce in targets with 33. Furthermore, he's been increasing his route participation every week, running a career-high 30 routes against the Chargers last week. With a solid 2.56 yards per route run and an impressive target share, Rice's stock is on the rise as the season progresses.

While Kelce remains healthy, he'll remain the clear number one in this offense. However, Rice has emerged as the most productive option after Kelce, and he's earning the trust of his star quarterback.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

The last two weeks have been a perfect preview of what's to come with rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid, who has recorded 13 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown. With Dawson Knox (wrist) heading to the IR, this is a golden opportunity for the rookie to take charge and establish himself in the Bills' offense.

Even though he's been operating as TE2 for most of the season, Kincaid ranks third on the Bills in routes run (201), trailing only Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The chance to become the clear-cut third option in this high-powered offense holds significant value, and Kincaid is poised to receive a lot of opportunities.

Even when Knox returns, it's worth noting that the Bills use 12 personnel more frequently than most teams in the NFL, ranking eighth with a usage rate of 33%. This means there will be many formations with both Kincaid and Knox on the field. If Kincaid can continue to gain Josh Allen's trust in the coming weeks, he has the potential to become a significant contributor in the Bills' offense.

Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders

Another rookie tight end with the potential to make an impact is Michael Mayer, who has seen increased involvement over the last two weeks. Since Week 6, Mayer ranks third on the team in both routes run (46) and targets (10). Meanwhile, veteran Austin Hooper's role has gradually diminished, with the rookie showing exactly why he was drafted in the second round.

Although his Week 7 performance wasn't very productive, it's worth noting that he had veteran backup Brian Hoyer as his quarterback. In his first game with an expanded role and Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, Mayer recorded five catches for 75 yards, albeit without a touchdown. Mayer has run 20 or more routes in each of the last two games, indicating that he has earned a significant role in the offense.

The breakout for Mayer could happen as soon as this week, especially with Garoppolo listed as questionable due to a back injury. Adding to the potential, the Lions currently allow the second-highest number of points per game to tight ends. Mayer's upcoming schedule also looks promising, with three of his next four opponents ranking in the top-10 for points allowed to tight ends. It looks like Mayer is well-positioned to be the next rookie tight end to break out in the 2023 season.

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