RADIO
We’re to Week 8, and the NFL calendar is flying by. There are no NFL teams on byes this week, even though there were six on byes last week. This column has remained profitable this season with winning weeks in six of seven weeks, and we’re hovering at a 60 percent winning percentage while being up 5.28 units thus far. We’ve had some unfortunate losses and some fortunate wins, so let’s just keep riding this train as long as we can.
I can’t count the number of coin flips we’ve had this year, but it was another winning Week in Week 7. Unfortunately, we were on the wrong side of one last week with Najee Harris falling into a loss by half a yard. We got a late cash from Curtis Samuel, and we had easy cashes from Drake London and Rashee Rice to secure a winning week. Heading into Sunday night, we just needed four catches from D’Andre Swift, but it wasn’t meant to be as he finished with just three catches on three targets, which was his fewest targets since Week 3.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 8
Nico Collins O55.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins started the season by announcing his presence in a big way. He had 226 yards through the first two weeks, and he established himself as the primary target in this Houston passing offense. He’s gone for 80 or more yards in four of the team’s six games thus far, and one of the two games that he missed was the team’s blowout win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3.
UNDERRATED: Alvin Kamara and
Christian McCaffrey’s career stats comparedCMC AK
2017 Year drafted 2017
1,618 Touches 1,669
9,308 Scrimmage yds 9,326
71… pic.twitter.com/bw6QlN8dHy— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) October 27, 2023
The Carolina Panthers have a number of highly drafted defensive prospects, but they’ve struggled to put things together on that side of the ball this season, especially against primary receiving options. Opposing WR1s are averaging 87 yards per game against them this season, and they’ve given up this mark to five of their six opponents, with the lone exception being Week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons when the Falcons elected to ignore the passing game altogether.
DeVonta Smith O49.5 Receiving Yards Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Philadelphia Eagles’ wideouts AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith were one of the top duos in the league last season, and that was expected to continue again this year. After the season started that way, we’ve seen a more steady focus of targets going in the direction of Brown as of late, and Smith has taken somewhat of a backseat. However, this is the type of matchup where he gets things rolling again. In the previous game against the Washington Commanders, Smith caught seven of his nine targets for 78 yards, and he caught four of his five targets for 49 yards last week.
This number strikes me as one that’s going to climb more as we get closer and closer to game time, so I’m glad to be getting here while we can. The Commanders are in the middle of the pack for rushing yards allowed, but they’ve given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts, and it has been on a lot of big plays. They’re last in the NFL in yards per reception allowed, and Smith has the type of big-play ability to break a big one at any time.
Rhamondre Stevenson O10.5 Rushing Attempts
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
I think this line is a little bit deceptive and recency-biased, and I think we have a strong chance here to get some good value out of it. New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson hit this mark in each of his first four games, including against the Miami Dolphins back in Week 2. Over the last three weeks, he’s seen a more even split of rushing attempts with teammate Ezekiel Elliott, but I think that has been due to the game script and situations more than anything.
The best way to beat the Dolphins is by keeping the receivers in front of you to reduce big plays down the field on defense while having long and sustained drives on offense. Last week, the Eagles had 34 total rushing attempts, and they dominated time of possession by more than 12 minutes. I expect Bill Belichick and the Patriots to come out trying to control the ball and the clock with a heavy dose of the running game. Outside of a blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints, Stevenson’s snap count has never been below 64 percent, so we know he’s going to be on the field and getting touches.
Alvin Kamara O53.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -110
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved since he returned from injury. He’s averaging 26 touches per game, and he’s gone over this rushing yards mark in three of the four games. His lone miss was in his first game back when he had 51 yards on 11 carries while catching 13 of the 14 targets thrown his way in a game his team trailed nearly the entire way. While teammate Jamaal Williams has returned from injury, I still expect Kamara to get the majority of the workload.
UNDERRATED: Alvin Kamara and
Christian McCaffrey’s career stats comparedCMC AK
2017 Year drafted 2017
1,618 Touches 1,669
9,308 Scrimmage yds 9,326
71… pic.twitter.com/bw6QlN8dHy— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) October 27, 2023
On the other side, the Indianapolis Colts have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and they’ve allowed opposing RB1s to hit this mark five times this year. They’re 18th by DVOA against the run, and I think this is a game that could be a struggle for either team to score points. However, I expect Kamara to still get his usual workload, and, in that situation, I think this mark is well within reach.
Kenny Pickett O215.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
Our final play of the week is another over because I wasn’t finding an under that I wanted to force in, especially with a lot of key injury notes holding lines up. We’re going with Steelers’ quarterback Kenny Pickett to go over a relatively modest line on this one. He’s hit this in five of his six games this year, and the lone miss was the team’s blowout loss to the Texans when they couldn’t get anything going. Pickett doesn’t throw for a high yardage total, but he does move the ball with some efficiency.
The Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing yards to quarterbacks this year, and they’ve given up 280 or more yards in all but one game thus far. The Steelers have struggled to run the ball this year, and that should play out perfectly in this matchup where the Jags have been a strong run defense as they’re sixth by DVOA against the run. This line is relying primarily on it not becoming a blowout in favor of the Steelers which I’m not expecting based on how the Jaguars have been playing this year.
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