RADIO
We have made it to Week 6 of the NFL season. After this week, we will have officially completed one third of the season, and it just seems like it is flying right past us. Some teams that we thought were good are bad, and teams that we thought would be bad are good. Any team can show up on any given week, and that's why we really have to hunt to find the best betting lines and ways to attack this season while it's here.
Week 5 was our best week yet with a 4-1 finish, and, if it weren’t for Denver Broncos’ quarterback Russell Wilson’s inability to attempt to throw the ball down the field, we might have had a chance to go 5-0. We got lucky with Tank Dell getting his yardage prop on his last snap of the day, but we’ll take it after some of the hooks we’ve gotten thus far this year. If you have tailed every pick through five weeks, you’d be up 3.39 units, and I hope that we can continue pushing that number higher as the season moves on.
We’re still up slightly on the season, but those close losses really stung last week. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my Twitter.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 6
Evan Engram O40.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
We’re going back to a familiar face from a couple weeks ago in the form of Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram’s receiving yards. Engram has been a consistent target for third-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence all season, and I think that will continue this week against the Indianapolis Colts. Engram had hit this mark in four straight games to start the season, including a five catch, 49-yard performance against the Colts in Week 1.
Engram ranks second on the team in targets and receptions, and he is third in receiving yards. On the Colts’ side of things, they’ve given up the eighth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends with a clip of nearly 60 yards per game. Engram is largely the only tight end that’s involved in the passing game for the Jags. As long as this game doesn’t get out of hand early, I think this number is well within reach.
Raheem Mostert O68.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: Caesar's Sportsbook
Odds: -101
This prop seems like it will be one of the chalkier ones of the week, but I’m willing to eat some of that chalk in this matchup. Miami Dolphins’ running back Raheem Mostert was splitting touches with rookie De’Von Achane (knee) the last few weeks, but, with the rookie on IR for at least the next few weeks, that frees up Mostert to take back the lion’s share of the touches. Mostert has the explosiveness to take a ball to the house at any time, and, against this Carolina Panthers’ defense, we could see him rip off a few chunk gains.
The Panthers have given up the third-most rushing yards to opposing backs this season, and they rank last by DVOA by a full seven percent. There is some potential that teammate Jeff Wilson (ribs/finger) could be returning to action this week, but I would expect them to ease him back into the fold rather than rushing him back, especially in a matchup that they should handle with ease. Mostert had 65 yards last week on just 10 carries against a similarly bad defense. I think he can get a few more in this matchup to push him over this line for the third time this year.
Joe Burrow O37.5 Passing Attempts
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
For the majority of quarterbacks, this number would spook me quite a bit. However, in the case of Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, I don’t think this is a completely farfetched line, especially in this matchup. Burrow has hit this line in three of his, and the two exceptions have been two blowout losses to the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans. In their other three games, he’s thrown the ball 41, 46 and 49 times.
I don’t expect this game to be a blowout. The interesting thing about it is the Bengals, even if they’re the ones winning big, will probably still be throwing the ball. In a game they won by 14 and possessed the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game, Burrow had 46 attempts. The Seattle Seahawks have been a strong rushing defense through five weeks with no more than 67 yards allowed to a single running back thus far. This game has shootout potential, and I expect Burrow to be throwing the ball a lot.
DeVonta Smith O51.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Earlier this season, Philadelphia Eagles’ wideout A.J. Brown had an animated discussion with his quarterback after a couple of quiet weeks on the field. In Week 3, there was a concerted effort to get the star wideout the ball. The squeaky wheel had gotten the grease. While we didn’t see DeVonta Smith have that sort of attitude last week, there were many callouts on the broadcast about his lack of involvement in the offense, and I think he gets involved this week.
To start the season, we’ve seen New York Jets’ cornerback Sauce Gardner has often taken on the opposing WR1, and I think we’ll see a high number of battles between he and Brown in this one. With that in mind, this strikes me as a strong Smith game. The Jets have a decent run defense, and, while Philly should still be able to move the ball a bit on the ground, I think Smith gets moving again on this number. He’s hit it twice, and I feel he’s due to make it a third this week.
D.J. Moore O4.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: +112
I’m not 100% sure what’s going on with this line, and it feels a bit fishy even just writing it down now. Over the last two weeks, Chicago Bears’ wideout D.J. Moore has eight receptions in each game, and he’s hit this mark three times on the year. He leads the team in targets, yards, receptions and receiving touchdowns. Looking at the other wide receivers for the team. They have combined for 16 catches on 37 targets for 196 yards and two touchdowns. When it comes to wide receivers, it begins and ends with Moore.
On the other side, he draws the Minnesota Vikings, who have allowed the most catches and yards to opposing wideouts. Last week, Moore was the only wide receiver on his team to catch a pass, and I expect him to continue to be heavily featured this week. The Chicago offense has looked good the last two weeks, and I’m going to risk them making it three weeks in a row with this play.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
