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Are we really about to have another Thursday Night Football game with the Kansas City Chiefs where we have to worry about Travis Kelce missing the game? Fantasy managers might finally abandon the night altogether if that happens after Kelce missed the season opener with a knee injury, but it does look like the first-round tight end should suit up. The Chiefs have not exactly been their explosive selves in several of their games this year, but that just might change against a historically bad Denver defense.
Both teams are coming off competitive games -- although Kansas City was able to come out victorious in theirs -- and are looking to build more momentum in Week 6. If this is going to turn into a competitive game on Thursday night, all hope of that will rest on Russell Wilson and the Denver offense. Kansas City should have no problem scoring points or gaining big plays.
I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this sixth Thursday Night matchup of the 2023 season.
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Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs - 8:15 pm ET
Notable Injuries:
- Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN) - Hamstring - Questionable
- Travis Kelce (TE, KC) - Ankle - Questionable - EXPECTED TO PLAY
The Broncos-Chiefs Matchup
How exactly do we describe a matchup of the Chiefs offense and the Broncos defense? A real-life David versus Goliath? I'm not sure that Kansas City can hang 70 points on Denver as Miami did, but Patrick Mahomes versus this version of the Denver defense looks like a colossal mismatch. Even without true stud wide receivers and even with a hobbled (or unavailable) Travis Kelce, this is still Mahomes we are talking about.
Over the last three games, the Broncos have allowed the third-most passing yards per game to opponents. Yes, one of those games was against Miami, but the other two were against Justin Fields and Zach Wilson, two guys not exactly known for their passing chops. Denver allows the most yards per pass attempt as well as the most passing touchdowns per game.
If that's not enough, Denver also allows the most rushing yards per game to their opponents (187.6 per contest), which is over 30 yards more than the next closest team (Cincinnati allowing 154). With a competent rushing weapon in Isiah Pacheco, the Chiefs look poised to hit the Broncos from all angles in this home game.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Oh boy, where do we start here? Mahomes is closer to being ranked QB1 on the week than he is to being ranked outside the top 10. Denver allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (21.6 per game), including the most passing touchdowns and third-most passing yards. They also have just three takeaways from QBs in five games, so Patrick Mahomes' turnover risk is minimized here. Set it and forget it this week.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
If Kelce is in the Chiefs starting lineup, he should be in yours as well (UPDATE: He is expected to play). The Broncos allow the fourth-most fantasy points to the position, including the fourth-most receiving yards. Kelce may be having a "down" year so far, but he still is second in the position in red zone targets (nine) and leads all tight ends with three red zone touchdowns. Once they get in that area, Mahomes is looking for Kelce.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
Despite being a borderline RB1 on the season, Pacheco is a clear starter in this game and also has upside as the top running back of the week, depending on the game script. Denver gives up big plays every single game on the ground and Pacheco is number seven among running backs this year in yards created per touch.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
Jerry Jeudy emerged in Week 5 as Russell Wilson's favorite target and the pendulum is certainly swinging his way for fantasy. Among the 18 targets to wide receivers and tight ends in Week 5, Jeudy saw seven of them, including a red zone look. Jeudy hauled in the most balls of the season in that game (six) and will be the first read when Russell Wilson needs a big play to keep up with Kansas City on Thursday.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine (RBs, DEN)
After missing a week with an injury, Javonte Williams has been back at practice and is off the injury report for the game against Kansas City. He and Samaje Perine should form a nice thunder-and-lightning approach to attacking the Chiefs' defense in their attempt to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Kansas City is a bottom-10 team in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.3 yards), so there should be some holes for the running back duo.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Courtland Sutton may have had an abysmal Week 5, but he still possesses a 21.1% target share, a 27.6% air yards share, and the most receiving touchdowns on the team (three). Second on the team in yards after the catch, Sutton's relatively modest aDOT this year (9.8 yards) is helping him get the ball quicker so he can operate in the open field.
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
The Chiefs have been tough on opposing quarterbacks this season, allowing only 14.6 fantasy points per game. They also allow the fifth-lowest yards per pass attempt to opponents this season. Wilson is definitely on the borderline of start-w0rthy quarterbacks in Week 6 in 12-team leagues, and he will likely only pay off the investment in garbage time if the Chiefs let him rack up easy yards. He is certainly a Superflex play, but you likely have better options in your lineup.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
Rashee Rice may not officially be the WR1 or WR2 on this team, but he is getting the high-value looks and has become the most valuable wide receiver touchdown-maker for Mahomes. After another score in Week 5, Rice now has six red zone targets in the last three games.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jaleel McLaughlin (RB, DEN)
It looks like it will be back to the bench for McLaughlin after Javonte Williams was a full participant in practice this week. I suppose he could be a deep league dart-throw, but against a Chiefs defense that is top-12 in opponent rushing yards per game, it seems pretty thin in 10 or 12-team leagues. We will always fondly remember Week 5!
Jerick McKinnon (RB, KC)
This has not been the late 2022 version of Jerick McKinnon through the first five weeks of the season. Not by a long shot. In Week 5, he played his lowest snap share of the season (27%), and he has zero red zone opportunities in three of five games this season. I suppose if the Chiefs got down in this game and needed to have a quick, catch-up drive, they would call on McKinnon, but I'm not counting on it.
Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WRs, KC)
Right now, there are five players on the Chiefs who have more targets than Skyy Moore, including two other wide receivers. MVS only has 11 total targets on the year and players like Justin Watson and Noah Gray have higher target shares and air yards shares. In this offense, neither have been able to separate from the pack and remain desperation flex options on most fantasy teams.
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, DEN)
Marvin Mims Jr. was taking small steps up the ladder to relevancy before Week 5. But against the Jets last week, Mims took a big step down in all categories. He played just over 30% of snaps, he saw just two targets, and he caught one pass for four yards. Seemingly gone are the days in the first few weeks of the season when Russell Wilson would hit him for one to two long passes per game. He has 51 combined yards in Weeks 4-5.
Adam Trautman and Greg Dulcich (TEs, DEN)
On the season, the Chiefs have allowed less than 60 yards per game to tight ends and have given up just one touchdown to the position. And those numbers are for combined tight ends. With Greg Dulcich potentially coming back this week, you have to figure he and Adam Trautman will be splitting work, which eats into the fantasy viability of both.
Kirksey’s Picks
Current Spread: KC -10.5, Current Total: 47.5
This pick is weighted heavily by the availability of Travis Kelce (UPDATE: He is expected to play). Mahomes and Kelce are the engines that run this offense, and while I believe Pacheco can have a big game on the ground (maybe a huge game on the ground), the passing game needs to be firing for the Chiefs to put up plenty of points. Denver can take advantage of a Kansas City defense that allows three red zone scoring attempts per game and rack up some garbage time points. A game that ends with a Kansas City 32-17 victory is certainly within the range of outcomes here.
If Travis Kelce is ruled out, I will come back in and reevaluate this pick.
Picks: KC -10.5, OVER 47.5
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