RADIO
Week 4 brought five new faces to the weekly top-12 WR finishers club (PPR scoring), including Michael Wilson, Chris Godwin, and Romeo Doubs. Of the repeat performers, only Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua have finished in the top 12 three times in their four games.
Week 5 introduces our first byes of the 2023 season. Despite fewer teams to select from on the main DFS slate this week there is still value to be found, especially for managers looking to avoid paying up for one of the top-priced receiver options.
Each week we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for Week 5. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.
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Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
$6,900 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel; vs. Myles Bryant, Jalen Mills
After starting the season with three straight 10+ target games, Olave came down to earth last week, finishing with one catch on six targets for four yards.
The Saints travel to New England on Sunday looking to take advantage of a battered Patriots defense that will be missing CB Christian Gonzalez and Pro Bowl DE Matthew Judon, among other starters. With Olave playing primarily from the slot, he is projected to match up often against Myles Bryant, who has been filling in for starting slot corner Jonathan Jones.
The Patriots are the 6th best matchup for receivers according to PFF. Olave’s poor Week 4 performance is likely to influence his ownership percentage this week, making him a more attractive bet to return value as the 10th most expensive receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
$6,400 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel; vs. Roger McCreary
The Indianapolis Colts have been brought back to fantasy relevance with rookie Anthony Richardson under center, producing a top-20 performer at each skill position as it stands after four weeks (PPR scoring). Michael Pittman Jr. in particular has enjoyed a heavy volume with Richardson at quarterback, totaling 39 targets so far this year (tied for 8th-best in the NFL) to go along with a 23% target share.
Pittman Jr. gets a favorable matchup with the Titans in Week 5, PFF’s 10th-easiest matchup for receivers. The Titans defense ranks 30th in catch rate allowed to wide receivers (75.9%), meaning Pittman Jr. is even more likely to convert a high target share into receiving volume. Tennessee deploys a balanced amount of man and zone coverage.
As the 12th and 16th most expensive receivers in DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, Pittman Jr. provides top-eight upside at a discount. Use his high floor in cash or tournament contests on Sunday.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
$6,000 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel; vs. Ja'Quan McMillian
Garrett Wilson has been one of fantasy’s biggest disappointments this year with Zach Wilson under center, entering Week 5 as the WR26 in PPR despite being drafted as a top-10 receiver in most leagues. There is hope for Wilson yet though - his weekly targets have steadily increased every week this season, from five in Week 1, to eight, to nine, to 14 last week.
The Jets have the seventh easiest matchup for receivers in Week 5 according to PFF as they travel to MetLife to battle the Jets. With Wilson historically lining up all across the formation, including an increased percentage of time operating out of the slot last week, New York will look for mismatches where Wilson can avoid stud CB Patrick Surtain II.
Wilson is the 14th most expensive receiver on Week 5’s main slate despite being projected as a top-ten finisher for the week as a whole. Use him as a high-ceiling play in tournaments this week.
Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals
$3,700 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel; vs. Chidobe Awuzie
Michael Wilson took the league by storm in Week 4 with a seven for 76 and two touchdown performance, good enough for WR6 on the week. The rookie third-round pick has built a quick rapport with QB Joshua Dobbs as a downfield threat, averaging 16.9 yards per reception (tied for eighth-best in the NFL among receivers).
Wilson and the Cardinals have the ninth-best matchup for receivers this week as they face off against the Bengals. With Wilson’s target share in the offense rising, look for him to perform again in Week 5.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
$3,600 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel; vs. Byron Murphy
Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as a top receiving option for the Chiefs behind Travis Kelce this year. The 2023 second-round pick has garnered at least five targets in three of his four games as a Chief. Rice has also shown above-average efficiency thus far - he is currently twelve best among eligible receivers in yards per route run (2.41) and leads his team in targets per route run.
The Chiefs match up against the Vikings this week, the fourth-easiest matchup for receivers according to PFF. With the second-highest implied total of the week (28.25), expect Rice to be involved as the Chiefs top WR again. Those looking for a discount dart throw can do worse than Rice this week.
All data is from PFF. Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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