RADIO
Week 5 of the NFL season is here, and you can truly never predict this league. One week after scoring 70 points, the Miami Dolphins put up just 20. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears looked like the best team in the league for three quarters before melting down in an epic fashion. Games are never final, and your bets are never dead until they're truly dead. We've turned in three winning weeks in four attempts so far, and we've just barely missed a couple of big weeks by a yard or catch here or there. We're so close that I feel like I can taste it.
Unlike Week 3 where we had some narrow losses, Week 4 broke our hearts early to save us from suffering. It was another week in the green, although Brian Robinson Jr. and the Washington Commanders made us sweat late in the game. After seeing his snap counts increase for three straight weeks, Jordan Addison saw just one target and his lowest snap count of the season. Meanwhile, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson played arguably the best game of his career, and he became the first player in college or the NFL to have more completions, yards, touchdowns and fewer interceptions than Patrick Mahomes. Regardless of those losses, it was a slightly green week, so we move forward.
We’re still up slightly on the season, but those close losses really stung last week. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 5
Gabe Davis O37.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis hasn’t quite become the high-volume big-play machine that fans were hoping for following his breakout performance against the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs a couple of seasons ago, but he has played well through four games this season. He’s settling into his role as the big-bodied threat opposite Stefon Diggs, and he’s second on the team in targets, yards and receiving touchdowns. He’s gone over this mark in only two games this season, but, in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he’s got another strong matchup.
The Jaguars will be putting extra attention towards Diggs following his big performance last week, and that opens up room for Davis to work. The Jaguars have been a feisty run defense this season, and, outside of a big run by Bijan Robinson last week, they held the Falcons in check on the ground for the most part. Davis has big-play ability in his arsenal at any point in time, with catches of 34 or more yards in three straight games. Just one play like that could have him cashing this one early in the game.
Russell Wilson O0.5 Interceptions
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: +114
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson has just two interceptions on the season, and we’re still fading him this week. The New York Jets have registered five picks on the season, with all five of those coming off of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. This Jets’ team is playing fast and aggressive every week, and Wilson will give them opportunities to come up with takeaways to force short fields. Wilson’s top two targets are Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, who average 2.9 and 3.3 yards of separation per play respectively.
Last week, the Jets made Mahomes uncomfortable in the pocket and forced him to make awkward throws. The Jets also showed some renewed fight on the offensive side of the ball. Against a Broncos’ defense that has looked absolutely abysmal to start the season, they may be able to continue that. If they can get Russ into more passing situations, that will increase their chances of coming up with a takeaway.
Tyreek Hill O88.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
I don’t usually like to take lines this high, but this is a perfect blend of matchup and bounceback narrative for Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The Bills put the clamps on the Dolphins’ high-flying offense, and Hill turned in just three catches on five targets for 58 yards. Now, he gets a New York Giants’ defense that is 29th by DVOA against the pass, and they’ve been getting lit up week after week to start the year.
Hill has hit this mark in just two of his first four games, but both of those games featured an explosive passing play. The Giants have given up a reception of 40 or more yards in three of their four games. The lone exception was against the Arizona Cardinals, who didn’t have to throw much in the second half of the game due to the large lead that they were nursing. Hill has the ability to hit this mark in the first quarter of the game before we even blink, and I like him to bounce back this week.
Jalen Hurts O31.5 Passing Attempts
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: +100
This play is one that I think might fly a little under the radar, but I like the opportunity we have in front of us if we’re getting this line early. The Los Angeles Rams are likely getting wideout Cooper Kupp back this week, and they have already been a tough out on a weekly basis. Three of their four games have been one-score games, with the lone exception being their Week 1 win over the Seattle Seahawks, and they were tied with the San Francisco 49ers at halftime. Against a Philly secondary that is 17th against the pass this year after being 1st last season, there should be room for them to air it out.
How does this affect Jalen Hurts’ passing attempts? I think the Eagles will have to throw more than people thought when this game was seen on the schedule. Hurts has hit this number in three of his four games this season, and the Eagles have not been a stout defense thus far with 20 or more points in three of four games after allowing that just eight times last year. If the Rams are able to get an early score and force the Eagles to throw the ball, Hurts could be chucking the ball a bit more than he expected.
Tank Dell O41.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Houston Texans’ rookie wide receiver Tank Dell has impressed early on in his young career, and I like him to keep that going in Week 5 against the Atlanta Falcons. Dell had hit this number in back-to-back games prior to last week when his team blew out the Pittsburgh Steelers and pulled their foot off of the gas very early on. I don’t think that they’re going to do that to Atlanta, and, even if they do, Dell is in a strong position to be part of the reason that happens.
The Falcons tend to deploy top cornerback A.J. Terrell onto the opposing team's top wide receiver. I’m expecting him to match up with Nico Collins for most of the afternoon, and I think Dell can take advantage of his matchup as a result. When Dell gets open, quarterback CJ Stroud works to get him the ball, and I think Dell could be in for a big day this week.
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