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It’s elimination day in the Wild Card series after an epic day one of playoff baseball. It’s essential to understand in these types of games, teams facing elimination will be quicker to turn to their bullpen if in trouble. On the other hand, teams up in the series may have longer leashes for their arms. We will try to exploit this today with our prop bets.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, October 4, 2023. I will continue to hone in on pitcher props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow with some hitter props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zach Eflin UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-144 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Rangers dominated the Rays in game one of this series and now face elimination in game two. They will send Zach Eflin to the bump to keep their season alive. Eflin has a 26.5% K% and an 11.1% SwStr%. The Rangers have a 22.6% K% against right-hand pitching this season. Eflin averaged between 80-90 pitches a start during the regular season.
The strength of this Rays team is their excellent bullpen. They will turn this game over to them as soon as they can. Eflin's leash will be around 75 pitches today, and to get to six strikeouts, he has to be elite. Could it happen? Of course, but I will put my money on it not.
Jose Berrios OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings SportsBook)
Berrios has been in solid form over his last five starts. He owns a 3.10 SIERA, 30.6% K%, and an 11.5% SwStr% in his five September starts. He has gotten five or more strikeouts in all five of those starts. His opponent, the Minnesota Twins, is first in baseball against right-hand pitching, with a 27.0% on the season. I am a bit worried about the leash here for Berrios in an elimination game, but the line is too low for this matchup.
Braxton Garrett UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-130 FanDuel SportsBook)
Garrett is another arm pitching for a team facing elimination tonight for the Marlins in Philly. This Phillies team is not one to mess with in the postseason, which was proven again last night. Citizens Bank was rocking. Garrett, on the season, has a 23.7% K% and an 11.2% SwStr%. The Phillies, on the season, own a 25.7% K%. Over his last six starts, Garrett has only reached five strikeouts two times. Add in a short leash and a ruckus atmosphere. I love his odds of not getting there again.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Randy Arozarena OVER 0.5 Runs Batted In (+165 DraftKings SportsBook)
We get to my final bet of the day, but this is my favorite bet of the night. Playoff Randy is a thing. In his young career, this man has a .339 AVG, 11 HRs, 17 RBIs, and 23 Rs in 32 playoff games. Nathan Eovaldi has had a velocity dip over his last four starts, and in my speculation, I believe he is pitching hurt. Righties have pounded him in the previous 30 days to a .508 wOBA, .367 ISO, and a 62.9% hard hit.
I am all over the Rays today in the betting market. I have bet their moneyline, Arozarena's total bases and RBIs, and Yandy Diaz to score a run. They are also my favorite stack in DFS today.
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