RADIO
We have made it to Week 4 of the NFL season. We're starting to get to the point of the year where we really learn who these teams are. That gives us more information to use to try and catch the books sleeping at the wheel when they post lines. Remember to always be selective and to not force anything, but we're here to win money while watching a sport we all love. The bottom line is that the NFL isn't here for very long, so we have to milk every ounce of juice out of it while we can.
Last week, we had two of the most unfortunate losses in gambling that I’ve seen in a long time. For one, Robert Woods had three catches for 34 yards in the first half, and he didn’t see a single target in the second half. Our other brutal loss was Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers finishing with 48 yards on eight receptions when we needed 49 yards. After catching all eight of his targets during regulation, he failed to bring in both of his overtime targets. We had sweat-free wins from Raheem Mostert and Justin Jefferson, while Jimmy Garoppolo showed early in the game that we were going to end in the red for Week 3.
We’re still up slightly on the season, but those close losses really stung last week. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 4
Nico Collins O51.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -112
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins was another receiver who saw a diminished workload last week while teammate Tank Dell took on an increased workload. Collins saw just three targets after seeing 20 over the first two games of the season. I believe Collins remains the WR1 in this offense, and this is a solid get-right spot for him against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that has been suspect to start the year against top wideouts.
Collins does the majority of his damage in the intermediate middle of the field. Pittsburgh has been chopped up by Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, and Davante Adams in that exact area, with those three wideouts all going for 90 or more yards in their matchups. Collins hit this mark in each of the first two games this season, and I think this is another strong spot for him to make it three out of four to start the year.
Evan Engram O45.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram signed a contract extension in July, and the early returns have been good for the sixth-year tight end. Through three games, he’s recorded five or more receptions for 49 or more yards in each game. He’s third on the team in targets, but he’s first in receptions and tied for first in yards with Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley. While some parts of this offense have been inconsistent through three games, that has not been the case with Engram.
In Week 4, Engram and the Jags draw the first of two games in London for them with the Atlanta Falcons coming to them fresh off their first loss of the year against the Detroit Lions. In that game, the Falcons gave up eight catches on 11 targets to Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta for 84 yards and a score.
The Falcons’ secondary has been strong at stopping opposing WR1s for the most part, but that usually opens up areas for other guys to get involved. I think Engram could break loose once or twice in this game to hit this mark. Additionally, with teammate Zay Jones (knee) out for another week, that makes Engram more of a focal point in the offense again this week.
Brian Robinson Jr. U53.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. came along slowly last season following recovery from his attempted carjacking over the summer, but he steadily seized control of the starting running back duties. Through three games this year, he’s been firmly in control of that job as long as his team has been in the game. In fact, even last week against the Buffalo Bills in a 34-point blowout loss, he still had 10 carries for 70 yards to make him 3-for-3 to start the year in going over this mark.
Despite all of those positives, we’re going to fade Robinson in Week 4 against this Philadelphia Eagles defense. Through three games, the Eagles have yet to allow more than 38 yards to a single running back. While two of those three games came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings, who aren’t known for running the football, they stifled the New England Patriots in Week 1. I think Philly can jump on Washington early, and that negative game script will bite into Robinson’s workload.
Zach Wilson U177.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
Betting on a quarterback to go under his passing yards mark that is this low is always going to leave me a little queasy. However, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson has yet to give me a reason to have any confidence in him. Through three games, he’s completing just 52.4 percent of his passes, and he’s thrown for 170 or fewer yards in each outing. Now, the writing is starting to show on the wall with the Jets signing quarterback Trevor Siemian to their practice squad this week, although he will not be active on Sunday against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have been hit or miss on offense through three games, but their defense has been really clicking thus far. If we remove the pick-six that slid through the hands of wideout Kadarius Toney, the defense has given up 14, 9, and 10 points in each game. They’re allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and I think they can rattle Wilson. Additionally, if Wilson struggles early, I think he’ll have an extremely short leash.
Jordan Addison O39.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
We’re going to a line that has seen a significant drop from last week, and I think the main reason for that is specifically the books are expecting the game to be a blowout where Minnesota doesn’t have to throw a ton. However, they only have Minnesota listed as a four-to-five-point favorite across the board. Even though the Panthers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards entering Week 4, the Vikings aren’t necessarily built to take advantage of that.
Through three weeks, the Vikings rank last and second-to-last in rushing attempts and yards. Meanwhile, they’re first in passing attempts and second in passing yards. Rookie wideout Jordan Addison is second on the team in receiving yards with a healthy 61.3 yards per game. He’s gone for 52 or more yards in each of the first three games, and he has the big-play ability to hit this line early with just one big play down the field. Even if this does become a blowout, I like Addison in this spot at this line.
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