RADIO
Week 3 of the NFL season is here. We only get about five months of football to bet on, so we have to bet on it while we can. The offenses improved a bit in Week 2, and I think they're only going to improve as the season goes along. With each week, everyone is going to get a little bit more comfortable, and that chemistry is really going to start to pay off. Let's get into those Week 3 picks. We have started this NFL season off with two straight weeks in the green, and, if it weren’t for some unfortunate and boneheaded circumstances, we would have swept last week on our final two picks.
Javonte Williams had 30 yards on his first three carries of the game, and he racked up 14 yards on his remaining nine carries while the team imploded to give up a massive lead. Jaylen Waddle had three catches midway through the third quarter, and he dropped a pass squarely in his hands near the end of the quarter before his night was ended in the fourth following a hit that put him into concussion protocol. Regardless, we’re up 1.21 units heading into Week 3, and we have to keep building on that.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 3
Robert Woods O37.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
This line feels like a bit of a trap, but I’m going to go ahead and take the bait. Through two weeks, the Houston Texans have proven to be a booster for offense on both sides. They struggle on defense, and they chuck the ball around the yard on offense to turn games into shootouts. One of the primary beneficiaries has been a familiar face in the form of veteran wideout Robert Woods. Woods has put up 57 and 74 receiving yards in the teams first two games, and he leads the team in snaps at wide receiver.
The team’s younger wideouts are generally running routes further down the field, but Woods is the safety valve on many plays which is how he just steadily adds up yardage. In Week 3, he draws the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts entering the week. Woods isn’t the guy who goes for the big explosive plays, but he can work his way to this number in a game that has some shootout potential.
Zay Flowers O48.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
This line is another that feels like a bit of a trap, but I’m going to go after it anyway because I believe in the talent of the player. Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers has been as advertised for two weeks. He’s caught 86.7 percent of his passes, and, thanks to his quick-twitch athleticism, he’s turned that into 140 yards through the air. Of those 140, 82 have come after the catch which ranks sixth among wideouts.
The Indianapolis Colts have been a bit frisky on offense to start the year, but they’re still finding their footing on defense. They’ve given up the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. The major reason for that is they’re stifling opposing running games well, with the 10th-fewest rushing yards allowed, so teams are more than willing to pass on them. Flowers has hit this mark in each of his first two games, and, with Odell Beckham Jr. uncertain for this week’s contest, I think he could see an increased workload in this one.
Raheem Mostert O57.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert has got to be loving the life that he’s living right now. Due to the speed of his wide receivers, there is more space to work than he’s likely ever had in his life. Last week, against a strong New England Patriots defense that held the Philadelphia Eagles under 100 rushing yards as a team, Mostert averaged 6.7 yards per tote on 18 carries. Now, he draws a Denver Broncos defense that has been steadily leaking yards through two weeks.
Raheem Mostert is averaging 5.1 yards per carry...
BEFORE CONTACT
That's the best mark of any RB with 10+ carries.
No Wilson, no Ahmed, just a 187 LB rookie backing him up.
He's going to get fed at home against a Denver defense that couldn't stop Brian Robinson last week.
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) September 23, 2023
Denver allowed 122 rushing yards to the Washington Commanders last week in a game that Denver led by as many as 18 points at one point. This week, the Dolphins could be dealing with a limited wide receiver room with Waddle still questionable as of this writing. Despite that, Mostert should still be in a spot for a strong day. His speed makes him a threat to go for chunk gains on every snap, and, if Miami gets a lead, they can have him running strong all afternoon long to salt the game away.
Jimmy Garoppolo U239.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is probably reeling after last week’s beatdown by the Buffalo Bills. Both of his top wideouts are available and practicing this week, but I still have some doubts about his passing outlook for this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’s gone under this mark in each of his first two outings, and Pittsburgh has held opposing QBs under this number in each of the first two weeks. One major reason for that has been their struggles in the running game.
For the Raiders, they don’t want to be a team that throws the ball a ton. They want to run the ball and try to grind out the clock. Against a defense that has allowed nearly 50 more rushing yards than any other team entering Week 3, that seems extremely feasible. As long as the Raiders don’t fall behind by a wide margin early in the game, I could see a healthy dose of running back Josh Jacobs on the ground with a quiet day from Jimmy G.
Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: +105
This one is somewhat of a he’s due type of situation, and the matchup also helps it make even more sense. Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson leads the league in yards, and he’s second in catches. He’s also tied for the team lead in red zone targets while leading them in red zone catches. Despite all of that, he has yet to find the end zone through two games. Now, he draws a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has been letting opposing wideouts feast, and this seems like the perfect time for Jefferson to find the end zone for the first time this year.
#Vikings WR Justin Jefferson could become the first player in #NFL history to start a season with three consecutive games of 150+ receiving yards when the Vikings play the Chargers on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/lPqQgvzhmm
— Demo Report (@0M3D28) September 23, 2023
The Chargers are last in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to opposing wide receivers, and they’re tied for the lead league with four receiving touchdowns allowed thus far. In one career game against the Chargers, Jefferson caught nine of his 11 targets for 143 yards back in the 2021 season. I like Jefferson to find the end zone this week in a great matchup.
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