RADIO
Week 2 of the NFL is behind us and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the second week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?
Every week, I'll be looking at three to five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.
Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 2. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e. a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e. an anomalous result?
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Daniel Jones - QB, New York Giants
Week 2 stats: 26-for-37, 321 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, nine carries, 59 yards, one touchdown - overall QB1
After the Giants were blanked on the scoreboard in Week 1 against the Cowboys, his team went into the halftime locker room down 20-0 at the half against the Cardinals on Sunday.
But the Giants woke up in the second half, outscoring the Cards 31-8 over the final two quarters. We finally got to see this Giants offense look as dynamic as it's capable of. Jones was 26-for-37 for 321 yards in the game, tossing two touchdowns and a pick. He also added nine carries for 59 yards and a score.
On one hand, this was the kind of game that the Giants were hoping for when they signed Jones to his extension. On the other hand, we have an eight-quarter sample of the Giants offense, and it's been good for just two of those.
Jones threw a pick on a league-low 1.1% of his pass attempts last year, but that's already ballooned to 4.6%. I'm sure that number will go down since he doesn't face the Cowboys' defense every week, but that doesn't make Jones a top fantasy option. This week was likely an anomaly. The Giants won't go down three scores to a defense as bad as Arizona's most weeks, so Jones won't have the same opportunities to post big numbers.
Verdict: Fiction
Kyren Williams - RB, Los Angeles Rams
Week 2 stats: 14 carries, 52 yards, one touchdown, six receptions, 48 receiving yards, one touchdown - overall RB4
We got some interesting news this week involving Cam Akers. The Rams starting running back was a healthy scratch against the 49ers this weekend and the team is reportedly working on trading him. That led to a new face leading the backfield—second-year back Kyren Williams.
After seeing just 35 carries in his rookie campaign, Williams is already at 29 this year, with 15 in Week 1 and 14 in Week 2. Against San Fran, Williams gained 52 yards and found the end zone while also making an impact in the receiving game. He was targeted 10 times, catching six passes for 48 yards and a score.
With Akers out, Williams played 76 of Los Angeles' 80 offensive snaps. The only other running back to see the field was Ronnie Rivers. That's a trend that's likely to keep going now that Akers is out of the picture. I really like the team's third-string back, Zach Evans, but he's not an immediate threat to siphon off touches from Williams.
This is Kyren's backfield. And with the Rams passing attack looking as good as it has, there's going to be ample room for him to run with the football. His receiving role is a major plus too. I consider Williams to be a low-end RB1 play going forward.
Verdict: Fact
Zack Moss - RB, Indianapolis Colts
Week 2 stats: 18 carries, 88 yards one touchdown, four catches, 19 yards - overall RB10
Jonathan Taylor is currently on the PUP list. It's, uhh, not clear what the real reason for that is. Was it because of the ankle surgery he had in the offseason? Or was it because he requested a trade?
I guess we'll find out in a couple weeks. But until then—and potentially after then if Taylor's kept out or traded—Zack Moss is set to be the starting running back for the Colts.
And Moss looks pretty set in that role. After missing Week 1 while recovering from a broken arm, he returned against the Texans this week. He played all but one offensive snap for the Colts, and there wasn't a running back on the field on the play Moss sat.
The veteran back had 18 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown and also caught all four of his targets for 19 yards. It was an effective game for Moss, and a nice departure from the team's Week 1 struggles, when Deon Jackson, Jake Funk, and Evan Hull combined for 25 rushing yards on 15 carries.
It says a ton that Moss' return led to all three backs who played in Week 1 not seeing the field. Until Taylor returns, this is Moss' backfield, making him a solid RB2 play.
Verdict: Fact, Unless Taylor Returns
Nico Collins - WR, Houston Texans
Week 2 stats: seven receptions, nine targets, 146 yards, one touchdown - overall WR4
It wasn't really clear what this Texans offense would look like in 2023. Rookie quarterback. First-year offensive coordinator. A mostly new collection of receivers.
But C.J. Stroud has averaged 313 passing yards per game through his first two NFL contests. The Texans defense has allowed the sixth-most points so far this season, and the team looks to spend much of this season playing from behind. That's usually a good thing in fantasy because it means a team's going to be tasked with throwing the ball more in the second half as it attempts to claw its way back into the game.
Wide receiver Nico Collins has been the team's No. 1 receiver in both games so far. In Week 1, he caught six of his 11 targets for 80 yards, and then this week he had seven receptions for 146 yards and a score.
But here's my concern. Yes, this passing offense looks pretty good. But Collins was just third among the team's receivers in snap rate this week. He was on the field for 62% of Houston's plays, behind Robert Woods (86%) and rookie Tank Dell (79%). I'm a huge Dell fan because he's an electrifying player. The fact he's already out-snapping Collins is a good sign for Dell's future.
Collins is going to be a fine wide receiver this season. But he's not going to consistently be a WR1 or WR2. Woods and Dell have too large of roles for Collins to do what he did in Week 2 on a normal basis. Still, he's definitely worth rostering and is a weekly FLEX play. Just temper expectations a little bit.
Verdict: Fiction, if you think this makes him a top 15 or so fantasy receiver. Fact, if you think this makes him a worthy FLEX play each week.
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