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Joshua Costello looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the season, written in Week 21. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
Welcome RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball breakout hitters article for Week 21. As always, we are here to bring you a few MLB hitters whose advanced metrics are popping out.
My name is Joshua Costello, and I will be giving you 3-5 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time-to-time as well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year.
For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first, and then we'll get into the three names we're picking for this week.
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2023 Breakout Picks Tracker
Let's get to the picks for Week 21!
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson was already a prolific power hitter when he joined the team, but he's proving to be all the Braves hoped he'd be in 2023. In Olson's last season with the Oakland Athletics, he slashed .271/.371/.540 with 39 home runs, 101 runs, and 111 RBI. The first baseman had career numbers across the board in 2021, and it seemed like the Braves were buying him at his peak.
In 2022, the slugger slashed .240/.325/.477 with 34 home runs, 86 runs, and 103 RBI. Every stat saw an apparent drop-off the following year, with a 7.5% increase in strikeout rate being one of the most glaring. As good as Olson's 2021 season was, his strikeout rate below 20% was the apparent choice for regression. Olson has only had a strikeout rate below 24% that year. The 29-year-old's first year with the Braves was lukewarm compared to his previous season, but Olson has settled doubts this year.
In 2023, the Braves' first baseman has gone from one of the best power hitters to arguably the best in baseball. The veteran slugger also has the highest walk rate of his career at 14.9%, a full percentage higher than his previous career high in 2020. Olson is on pace to set a new Atlanta Braves franchise record for home runs and RBI in a season. Olson has settled in with his new team and will continue competing to be the best power hitter in baseball for years to come.
Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres infielder Ha-Seong Kim has only been with the team since 2021 but has made notable improvements each year. In his first season with the Padres, Kim slashed .202/.270/.352 with eight home runs, 34 RBI, and six stolen bases in 117 games. In his second season, Kim slashed .251/.325/.383 with 11 home runs, 59 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in 150 games. The 27-year-old infielder has slashed .284/376/.444 with 15 home runs, 42 RBI, and 27 stolen bases in 116 games in 2023.
Kim continues to find ways to improve, and some metrics to look at would be his plate discipline stats. His third-year stats show that he has been far more patient at the plate. The Padres' infielder had a Swing% around 44% his first two seasons, and that stat has dropped to 37.2% this year. Kim also swings at pitches out of the zone, 5% less than before. The 27-year-old has displayed an improved eye and accurate bat, with the highest Contact% and Z-Contact% rates of his career in the MLB.
Fantasy managers who roster Kim have found gold, likely from the waiver wire. The infielder has always been a standout on the defensive side, and now the offense has come around. Among all hitters, Kim ranks third in fWAR in the second half of the season. While the expected stats may not fully support Kim's success this season, he does have a higher Barrel% and Sweet Spot% than the previous two seasons. Kim is a valuable player with room to improve even more next season.
Omar Narvaez, New York Mets
New York Mets catcher Omar Narvaez has shown the ability to be an above-average hitter at the catcher position but has yet to display that production since 2021 with the Milwaukee Brewers. In 2021, Narvaez slashed .266/.342/.402 with 11 home runs, 54 runs, and 49 RBI in 123 games. In 2022, Narvaez had his season cut short by injuries and COVID. The veteran catcher finished the season batting .206 with four home runs in 84 games.
In 2023, Narvaez was set to be the starting catcher for the stacked New York Mets lineup. The hype surrounding his potential was ultimately short-lived because the veteran catcher went down with an injury in early April. He had a potentially high-grade calf strain and was initially ruled out for at least nine weeks. In Narvaez's absence, the young catcher Francisco Alvarez made his presence felt. Alvarez made it challenging to predict if Narvaez would be the starter when healthy.
Despite having his playing time in doubt, Narvaez has been a solid fantasy catcher for several seasons. The 31-year-old has consistently had a wOBA greater than the league average. Narvaez is batting a measly .208 this season, but his xBA sits at .269, so a hot streak could be coming any day now. The Mets catcher also has the lowest strikeout rate of his career at 11.9%, which is likely to increase but is important to watch. Narvaez is a solid veteran hitter, and I see no reason why he can't continue this production.
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