RADIO
Sleeper is a term that's become almost mythical these days. It can mean 10 different things to 10 different people. We each need to define it, as a "sleeper" to a 10-team drafter will be obvious to someone prepping for a 14-teamer. I'll try to dig beyond the top-12 QB/TE choices, as well as the top-36 or so for RBs and WRs.
For me, the term sleeper means a mid-to-late round pick who could be an excellent value where they are currently being drafted. In this article, I will highlight two or three of my favorite sleepers at traditional positions. Those of you seeking kicker or defense sleepers, feel free to try me on Twitter but really you just need to take a deep breath and worry about these positions on draft day.
I'd advocate you avoid drafting K or DEF and use the extra bench slots on late-round fliers, anyway. All ADP data used for this article is aggregate ADP data for half-PPR drafts, except for QBs, and was updated on 09/03/2023.
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2023 Quarterback Draft Sleepers
Anthony Richardson (IND), QB15
Richardson could be classified as a “raw” NFL talent considering he didn’t throw more than 400 total passes in college. But he’s stepping into a strong environment that’ll play to his rushing strengths and allow him to slowly develop the passing tools. New head coach Shane Steichen comes from Philly where he helped Jalen Hurts blossom, and before that, he was OC for LAC as Justin Herbert captured offensive rookie of the year honors.
The Colts had a 58/42 pass/run split in 2022 that should tilt and favor the running game with Richardson and a healthy Jonathan Taylor. Steichen saw Philly be a top-five team in rushing yards in each of the last two years and new OC Jim Bob Cooter was with the Eagles in ‘21. The rushing floor should make Richardson a top-10 threat in any given week, which should elevate him into the top-12 QB picks in any 12-teamers.
Geno Smith (SEA), QB16
I won’t harp on this but Smith had a career year for Seattle and now gets Jaxon Smith-Njigba running alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. If you needed to “play it safe” with someone like Smith as you wait for a Richardson upside pick to pan out then I’m all for it.
Kenny Pickett (PIT), QB19
Pickett may have gone 7-5 as a rookie but it was largely a forgettable campaign. Over 13 total games, Pickett would average just 185 passing yards and throw seven total touchdowns against nine interceptions. He did complete 63% of his passes while putting up a 55-237-3 rushing line, though, and now we creep toward the potential.
And the total doesn't frame the story well. Pickett started cold and threw eight picks in his first five games, but Pittsburgh would then go 7-2 in nine games after the bye. The rookie only threw one INT in that window but did effectively miss Weeks 14 and 15 with a concussion. His rushing attempts calmed down after that. A healthy Pickett should rip it to several weapons around him.
Diontae Johnson is the most obvious TD positive regression candidate in football but there's also Pat Freiermuth over the middle and highlight-magnet George Pickens as well. The Pickett-Pickens connection showed exceptional promise in Year 1.
On the year, Pickens had a 109.3 QBR when targeted, which was 24th among 147 pass-catchers (min. 40 targets, per Stathead). Johnson's 58.3 QBR was 144th. Will OC Matt Canada recognize the strengths at play in PIT and optimize schemes for Pickett? Does Allen Robinson's very presence make you lower Pickett by 10 draft slots?
We'll either see a version of Pickett and the Steelers that is more aggressive and allows him to rip it to his talented pass-catchers, or a modest pass attack that's too similar to 2022 for us to be interested. The opportunity cost of a roster spot can loom large at the beginning of a season and their first three games are against the 49ers (ouch), Browns (eh), and Raiders (good).
Adam Caplan on Kenny Pickett:
“And Pickett’s arm, a source with knowledge of the situation said, looked noticeably stronger during their OTA practices. Pickett’s knock in personnel circles coming into last year’s draft was that his arm strength was lacking, so it will be… https://t.co/hW6Dxrgc5w— NFL Beat Writers (@32BeatWriters) July 24, 2023
2023 Running Back Draft Sleepers
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL), RB59
Close your eyes and remember how last season CPatt had 136 total yards in Week 1 and 153 in Week 3 before a Week 4 injury ruined the party. Bijan Robinson is an obvious stud but this means Patterson can go back to handling 12-15 touches per game rather than the 18-20 that he was flirting with.
The Falcons have Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Patterson all strong threats out of the backfield. But Patterson also helps cover up the thin receiver depth. Mack Hollins can shine at times, but he's not a strong No. 2 option. And Scotty Miller is a situational deep play, not a consistent slot man.
Yes, Kyle Pitts is basically a wideout but you know how they line up. Desmond Ridder's best bet is huddling up with Robinson, Patterson, Pitts, Hollins, and Drake London. I understand trepidation in non-PPR formats but the 15 targets to Patterson in Atlanta's final four games in '22 is a nice teaser ahead of '23.
Jerome Ford (CLE), RB69
Ford didn’t see the field much as a rookie in 2022, totaling just eight carries behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The former is another year older and coming off of his first 300-rush season, while the latter is off in free agency.
Hunt went from averaging 4.9 yards per carry in ‘21 to a paltry 3.8 in ‘22 while disappearing in the red zone. Hunt had four touchdowns on seven carries inside the 10 in ‘21 but only two TDs on 12 of those totes in ‘22. The inefficiency led to more Chubb, which creates a potential illusion that Ford can only be ‘22 Hunt rather than ‘21 Hunt.
Ford proved he can handle quite the workload as a senior at the University of Cincinnati, totaling 236 touches for over 1,500 total yards just two years ago. That included 21 catches for 220 yards and a score, so he can chip in with the hands. He was entrusted with Cleveland’s kick returns and racked up 723 yards, which was third-most in the NFL. Let the elusiveness shine with some dump-offs and allow Ford to be a FLEX play with standalone handcuff value.
We have to note that Cleveland didn’t take a running back in 2023’s draft and hasn’t been connected to notable free agents. The Browns boast a strong offensive line and many figure Deshaun Watson can help push the offense into the red zone with more consistency in Year 2. Ford provides a cheap path to a sneaky-potent environment, especially if Elijah Moore takes off.
(I'm not particularly worried about Pierre Strong Jr. coming in. It makes sense to have a decent third option, especially after Ford was injured for preseason reps.)
Others to consider: Evan Hull (IND), RB70 and Sean Tucker (TB), RB72.
2023 Wide Receiver Draft Sleepers
Nico Collins (HOU), WR57
I truly hoped Davis Mills would be serviceable in 2022 and allow Collins to make a sophomore jump. Alas, that did not occur. Brandin Cooks was a dismayed No. 1 WR and Collins was limited to 10 games by groin and foot injuries. But hope springs eternal in Houston through C.J. Stroud’s big arm.
I wager Stroud's early success will come from a clean pocket, with Collins able to win downfield if the line can buy roughly three seconds. PFF's draft profile on Stroud gave him a strong 93.4 grade and 71.7% completion rate in optimal conditions, but that sunk to a 42 grade and 41.3% completion rate under pressure. Can Houston win the scheme war against the rush?
If so, Collins gets a great chance to grow in Year 3 next to veteran Robert Woods and John Metchie III, who missed his rookie year while battling cancer. Hopefully, this WR corps can encourage Houston to not simply turtle up with their rushing game. If early trends aren’t there then we bail. But the Texans also invested in Dalton Schultz at tight end and genuinely have given Stroud some weapons. Give me the 6’4” Collins on the outside where a better QB like Stroud should be able to maximize the size advantage.
C.J. Stroud deep to Nico Collins. This is the play.
If Houston is going to take a big leap forward offensively, these two creating a real vertical threat is a must have.
Hopefully they can have a big year together #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/7YW53qj9XJ
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) July 26, 2023
Chase Claypool (CHI), WR86
The Bears traded the eventual 32nd overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft for Claypool just last year, which (hopefully) hints at a larger vision for the versatile threat. Not only did he top 850 receiving yards in his first two seasons, but he’d chipped in 10-15 rushes per year as well. But an 11-TD rookie year gave way to just two scores in his sophomore year. Some frustrating moments led to Pittsburgh dealing him to WR-needy Chicago after eight games last season.
Chicago has a rushing superstar in Justin Fields but that’s simply not sustainable and they’d love for him to make that Jalen Hurts-esque leap in the passing game. Now surrounded by Claypool, DJ Moore, and Darnell Mooney, can we see it? They also invested a first-round pick in right tackle Darnell Wright to beef up the protection.
To put this more succinctly, the recipe is right for a Claypool bounceback. The Bears have shown signs that we can expect 50-100 additional pass attempts after last year’s run-heavy attack. Claypool doesn’t have to be “the guy” but also Chicago paid a pretty penny for his donning their uniform. And Darnell Mooney/Cole Kmet haven’t popped as consistent competition. Fields’ athleticism can drag them to the red zone and create opportunities if Claypool remains a 2- or 3-wide starter.
2023 Tight End Draft Sleepers
Greg Dulcich (DEN), TE14
I recognize the tight end pool gets awfully murky beyond the established superstars but Dulcich theoretically languishing in a 12-teamer when everyone has the slot filled is painful. The rookie missed valuable time in the spring due to a core-muscle injury and then missed the majority of training camp and the first five games with a hamstring injury.
Chase Despite all of those hurdles, Dulcich immediately stepped into a significant role and gathered 55 targets between Weeks 6-16. That’s the seventh-most by a tight end in that window even with Denver’s bye in Week 9. His 71% snap share in his NFL debut put Albert Okwuegbunam's dreams on the back burner.
Dulcich regularly saw over 70% of the team’s snaps while working further downfield than most would’ve imagined. His aDOT of 11.35 trailed only Kyle Pitts and Darren Waller among TEs with at least 20 targets over the season. The counterpunch was seeing only two red-zone targets. Trim that to inside the 10 and Dulcich got one look while Denver’s wideouts saw 16 targets and the RBs got 33 opportunities. Even Eric Tomlinson got three targets there!
Let’s hope Sean Payton recognizes Dulcich’s abilities beyond stretching the middle of the field and gives him a chance to feast where the points are scored. The talent is there. Payton brought over blocking TE Adam Trautman from his NO days to go with Chris Manhertz, but no one is threatening Dulcich for receiving work. Hope for better RZ variance and increased trust from Payton and Russ with a full offseason of work out of Dulcich.
*Jerry Jeudy's early injury should only help Dulcich generate momentum as he looks to calm fears regarding Trautman's involvement.
Irv Smith Jr. (CIN), TE24
Many of y’all are acting like you forgot about Irv. I can see why, as the 6’2” TE tore his meniscus in 2021’s preseason and missed the entire campaign. Then he required thumb surgery in August 2022 and barely played in Week 1. He wouldn’t eclipse 50 yards in his next six games before suffering a Grade 3 high-ankle sprain, which effectively ended the year.
But this is about his 2023 opportunity on Joe Burrow’s Bengals. When Hayden Hurst was healthy through Week 12, he was seventh among TEs with 60 targets. We like Hurst but he’s not some game-breaking athlete. It’d be a stretch to say Smith can’t step into that role and see a similar volume. Burrow only played in 16 games and was still one of five signal-callers to attempt over 600 passes. Joe Mixon isn’t exciting anyone in 2023 so invest in the passing attack.
Irv Smith Jr. is being drafted as the TE25.
In just 13 games last yr, Hayden Hurst finished as TE21.
It’s time (again). pic.twitter.com/JReICXDl5Y
— Dom Cintorino (@domcinto_11) July 16, 2023
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