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New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had a career year in 2022 en route to a playoff victory and a new contract.
Jones set career highs in passing yards, completions, completion percentage, fewest interceptions throw, and, crucially for fantasy football, in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Jones took 120 carries for 708 yards and seven touchdowns. On top of his success throwing the football, that helped him to 294 fantasy points, his all-time high, and a QB7 finish.
But can Jones repeat it? What is his fantasy outlook for 2023 if he runs less often?
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Will Daniels Jones Run Less in 2023?
Daniel Jones's 2022 season was an outlier in comparison to his first three seasons. His production on the ground was an extreme outlier. While Jones had shown gradual progress as a passer, he hadn't done anything like this on the ground. He has had big games from week to week but not like this for a full season.
Let's put things in perspective: Jones's 120 carries were twice as many as his previous career high, 65 carries in 2020. His yards per carry figure in 2022, 5.9, was on par with his career average, 5.8. But his total yardage with that many carries was about 400 yards higher than in 2019 and 2021 and 300 higher than in 2020. He scored five more touchdowns on the ground than he had done in his previous best season.
You know how important rushing production can be for a quarterback's fantasy scoring. The yards score one for every 10 yards, and the touchdowns are six points each, two more points than in many leagues.
So what if this reflects a new normal for Jones? Brian Daboll, the former Bills offensive coordinator who made Josh Allen a fantasy football cheat code, came in before the 2022 season.
There might be something to that. Jones did take the ball on more designed rush attempts in 2022. But the effect of possible changes to Jones' game is exaggerated in his baseline numbers. He also scrambled the ball more often because he was under pressure a lot more often than he had been in 2021.
Daniels Jones Fantasy Football Outlook
Daniel Jones did have 33 more designed runs than he had the previous year, and his yardage gained on designed runs was also a career-high. But about two-thirds of the rushing yards he gained came on scrambles, and the increase in scrambles came from both increases in the number of times he was pressured and an increase in his propensity to scramble when pressured.
The Giants will hope that Jones doesn't have to rely on scrambling so much in 2023. They drafted center John Michael Schmitz in the second round, and they are banking on a second-year leap from 2021 first-rounder Evan Neal. But they still don't have a great offensive line. Jacob Wayne at Lineups.com rates the Giants' front five as the 22nd-best in the NFL.
Another important part of the equation is how often Jones takes off and runs when he is pressured. Did 2022 represent a shift in Jones' style of play? While Jones puts up good numbers scrambling, scrambling isn't always the preferable option. If the receivers are open downfield, a team can often do better if they throw the ball. But the Giants have not had good wide receivers during Jones' career.
This offseason, their biggest move was trading for tight end Darren Waller. They didn't add any top-tier talent, but they did sign Parris Campbell to be a WR3, and they drafted blazing-fast deep threat WR Jalin Hyatt from Tennessee. Wan'Dale Robinson might break out in his second year.
A lot of fantasy managers do not have confidence that 2022 represented a legitimate and sustained jump in Jones' game. He's only being drafted at QB13 in the National Fantasy Football Championship drafts, behind a lot of QBs he outscored last season and a couple (Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson) if they hadn't gotten injured.
If Jones keeps up what he was doing, you can get him at a bargain.
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