X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Quarterback Fallers for Fantasy Football - ADP Analysis for 2023 Drafts

Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of quarterbacks to assess their situations for fantasy football. Which QBs are falling in ADP and is now the time to pounce?

Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days that are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we check to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks - ADP Fallers

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Although there is nothing to worry about an ADP falling eight picks just a couple of weeks after the NFL draft, the trend speaks a bit about Jacksonville's offseason and the moves they made (or actually, didn't make) through the past few weeks. Lawrence is a loser by default here, although there is also the chance most fantasy GMs are focusing too much on the Jaguars draft in terms of the franchise choosing to go with a RB in Tank Bigsby instead of favoring bolstering the pass-catching corps.

Perhaps those GMs have forgotten about a certain receiver in the returning Calvin Ridley? This could be the case, and if that's in fact the thing causing this drop, then I hope that gets fixed eventually and Lawrence's ADP rises to the blue skies and beyond. Ridley is a top-tier wideout and his last full season in Atlanta (2020) proved so.

Back in 2020, Ridley played 15 games and finished the season as the WR5 in PPR formats. He caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards and 9 TDs. In 2021, he only played five games but still averaged a solid 14.2 FPPG with an average line of 6 receptions for 55+ yards per game that season. He spent 2022 suspended but he'll return hypercharged next season to help Trevor Lawrence.

Speaking of Lawrence... The young man is coming off a top-7 QB season. He was already QB23 in his rookie year and the improvement last season was sizable going from an average of 11.7 FPPG in 2021 to a fantastic 17.4 FPPG in 2022. His passing was much more efficient as a sophomore and his rushing numbers improved all across the board.

Hell, Lawrence even brought Evan Engram back to life after the Jags acquired what seemed to be a near-finished tight end and turned him into a bonafide TE1 last year. Buy while you can because the ADP drop is unreasonable and it will eventually/inevitably bounce back and rise again.

 

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes's ADP falling... I've seen it all! Now, if we're serious, it actually makes sense at the end of the day. It is not that his freakishly high ADP can even rise anymore, so it can only go down if you think about it.

Mahomes is coming off a supremely great season in which he finished QB1 with 417.4 FP through 17 games played. The guy simply mastered this thing we called football through the fall and the winter, full stop. And it's been like that since 2018 when he took charge of the Chiefs' pocket, honestly.

That said, it is also true that Kansas City might be getting a little bit too comfortable when it comes to giving Mahomes some pieces that actually help him when on the field. The Chiefs let Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster (two of their top-4 WRs in total PPR points last year) go this offseason. They only added Rashee Rice with a draft pick while retaining all of their other main pieces.

The Chiefs are basically betting on Mahomes being Mahomes all by himself, in Travis Kelce still being a no. 1 TE (he's been that guy for seven of the last eight seasons in PPR leagues...), and in a weird amalgam of wide receivers that hopefully will find open windows on a play-by-play basis, one player at a time.

You might or might not like a strategy founded on drafting a QB with a second-round pick, but if you're going to walk that path you better put your money (pick) where Mahomes is. Folks keep doubting him and the lad keeps shutting their mouths yearly. Too bad for the haters, that doesn't look like it will be changing in the next two... or eight seasons.

 

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

It took Allen two years (one, maybe?) but after we hit the 2020s, he's been an absolute beast at things we call fantasy football. Allen has finished the last three seasons as the QB1, QB1, and QB2. In the offseasons leading up to those campaigns, his ADP sat at 85th, 25th, and 18th overall. It's now settling around 30th and, truth be told, that's a bargain considering his last two figures on that front and his QB1+QB2 finishes.

All the Bills have lost this offseason are WR3 Isaiah McKenzie and RB1 Devin Singletary. For one, Isaiah McKenzie's production has been replaced by the addition of the pair of Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty along with rookie TE Dalton Kincaid. For two, Singletary was a borderline RB2 in the NFL last season (PPR format) and Josh Allen nearly outrushed him while scoring two more touchdowns through the year.

In a similar situation to that of Mahomes, it is not that Allen's ADP can do anything else other than drop because it's already sky-high. That said, the more it keeps falling, the better Allen will look for those aiming at building their fantasy roster around a legitimate league-winning quarterback with a super early fantasy draft pick this summer.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yanquiel Fernández

Yanquiel Fernandez Called Up to Majors
Tyler Mahle

Dealing With Rotator-Cuff Strain
Brooklyn Nets

Ziaire Williams Expected to Return to Nets
Austin Wells

to Miss Next Two Games
Tre Mann

Set to Become an Unrestricted Free Agent
Bo Bichette

Scratched With Sore Knee
Cody Martin

to Enter Free Agency
Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Staying with Clippers
Jurickson Profar

to Return on Wednesday
Jordan Clarkson

Jazz Finalize Contract Buyout for Jordan Clarkson
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Jalen Williams

will Undergo Surgery on Right Wrist
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
Deandre Ayton

Finalizing Contract Buyout with Portland
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF