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The top early-slate daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on May 10, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
We're getting an early start with Wednesday's nine-game matinee main slate. Today's matchups feature some tough pitching decisions and plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds. There's a disconnect between DraftKings and FanDuel slate sizes today, so this article will cover the DraftKings main slate, which encompasses two separate slates on FanDuel. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/10/2023 and the early slate locking at 12:35 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Gausman, TOR vs. PHI ($11,100 DK, $10,800 FD)
It's been peaks and valleys for Gausman this season. He got shelled during his last outing, surrendering eight earned runs on 10 hits over 3 1/3 innings against the Red Sox. It was the second time in 2023 that Gausman has been tagged for eight runs. That said, he's been phenomenal in his other five outings, surrendering a total of three earned runs over 34 innings pitched with 49 strikeouts. Gausman is risky, but his ceiling is about as high as it gets.
Overall, Gausman sports a 3.86 ERA. His .427 xSLG and 10.1% barrel rate highlight the volatile side of his game, but a 2.59 xFIP, 4% walk rate, and .298 xwOBA support his ability to dominate. Further, Gausman carries a spectacular 33.1% strikeout rate, including a 30.5% whiff rate and 37.1% chase rate -- that's our favorite part.
Gausman will take on a middling Phillies offense today. Philadelphia scores 4.3 runs per game, including a strong .769 OPS against right-handed pitching. There's a lot of slump on this team, but a lineup featuring Bryce Harper and Trea Turner is never going to present the easiest matchup. Nonetheless, rostering Gausman is all about volatility. Given his upside, Gausman is an excellent GPP tournament play today.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. MIL ($10,400 DK, $11,500 FD)
Contrary to Gausman's riskiness, Kershaw is a rock-solid pitcher to roster today. His numbers are excellent across the board, headlined by a 2.53 ERA through his first seven starts. That includes a .284 xwOBA, 33.6% hard-hit rate, .379 xSLG, .223 xBA, 30% whiff rate, 36.2% chase rate, and 28.4% strikeout rate. Kershaw is not the best at anything in particular, but he is very good at everything.
Outside of understanding Kershaw's greatness, the matchup is why I like him so much today. Milwaukee ranks dead-last in the majors with a .610 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, alongside a similarly awful .118 ISO and 68 wRC+. Most importantly, the Brewers strike out at a league-leading 30.5% rate versus southpaws. These are ideal conditions for a Kershaw gem.
Kershaw is the closest thing to a safe play on this slate. The matchup is ideal, and he's pitched at least six innings in all but one of his seven outings in 2023. Roster Kershaw with confidence.
Also consider: Luis Castillo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Merrill Kelly
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Gleyber Torres – 2B, NYY vs. Kyle Muller ($5,100 DK, $3,100 FD)
Torres has finally found his groove at the plate. He has posted three consecutive multi-hit efforts, including back-to-back games with a home run, entering Wednesday. His overall numbers are still underwhelming, but Torres can always be relied upon to challenge left-handed pitching. He sports a .345 ISO and .585 slugging percentage against southpaws this season, up from a .277 ISO and .533 slugging percentage in 2022.
Kyle Muller is getting rocked this year, carrying an awful 7.59 xERA. Looking around at his numbers, the case for him only gets worse -- .549 xSLG, 50.8% hard-hit rate, .409 xwOBA, .331 xBA, 92.4 mph average exit velocity, and 9.7% barrel rate.
Christian Walker – 1B, ARI vs. Edward Cabrera ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD)
Walker is possibly the hottest hitter in baseball at the moment, owning a 1.538 OPS in May. He has hit five home runs over the last six games and has seven multi-hit efforts over his past nine appearances. For the season, Walker is up to nine home runs with a .500 xSLG.
Edward Cabrera's biggest flaw is undoubtedly his 17.6% walk rate, but he's also shown a tendency to get hit around. Right-handed batters own a .456 slugging percentage against him this season and a .434 slugging percentage for his career. Cabrera additionally sports a 44.4% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate.
LaMonte Wade Jr. – 1B, SF vs. Josiah Gray ($3,500 DK, $3,100 FD)
Josiah Gray has looked like a different pitcher in 2023, but I'm not convinced he's put his prolific troubles with the home run ball behind him. In 2022, left-handed hitters posted a .598 slugging percentage against Gray, including 22 home runs. He led the majors with 38 total long balls surrendered.
Given the absence of Mike Yastrzemski, the struggles of Joc Pederson, and Michael Conforto's inability to get going, Wade is my favorite lefty bat in the Giants lineup. He's slugging .494 against right-handed pitching, including a .234 ISO and five home runs. Wade also isn't getting enough credit for his overall figures, featuring an elite .425 xwOBA, .528 xSLG, and 13% barrel rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Brent Rooker – OF, OAK vs. Jhony Brito ($4,100 DK, $4,200 FD)
Rooker has taken the league by storm early in the 2023 campaign. He carries a .319/.441/.681 slash line with 10 home runs. That includes phenomenal numbers like a .619 xSLG, .442 xwOBA, and a 21.7% barrel rate.
On the flip side, Jhony Brito is getting shelled on the mound. He sports a 6.97 xERA, 5.52 xFIP, .558 xSLG, .393 xwOBA, and 14.1% barrel rate through seven appearances. In particular, the damage Brito accrued has come exclusively against right-handed hitters, who are slugging .642 against him. There's no Athletics hitter more capable of capitalizing than Rooker.
Randal Grichuk – OF, COL vs. Rich Hill ($3,400 DK, $3,000 FD)
Since being activated from the injured list on April 29, Grichuk has recorded a hit in all eight games he's played in. The 31-year-old posted a .593 slugging percentage and .285 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2022 and carries a career-long preference for facing southpaws.
Rich Hill has performed much worse than his 4.94 ERA tells us. He brings a 6.94 xERA, .394 xwOBA, .306 xBA, .573 xSLG, and 15% barrel rate. Right-handed hitters have already launched eight home runs against Hill in 2023, including a .578 slugging percentage.
Lane Thomas – OF, WAS vs. Sean Manaea ($2,800 DK, $3,000 FD)
Whatever Sean Manaea is doing is not working out this year. Through seven outings, he carries an 8.02 xERA alongside similarly terrible numbers like a .581 xSLG, .418 xwOBA, .299 xBA, 46.2% hard-hit rate, and 16.9% barrel rate. The problems get even worse for Manaea against right-handed hitters, who are slugging .631 against him.
Lane Thomas is an excellent value play today. He's recorded a hit in nine of his last 10 games, hitting three home runs in that span. Throughout his career, Thomas has fared better against left-handed pitching, carrying a .493 slugging percentage and .201 ISO against lefties for his career.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
New York Yankees vs. Kyle Muller
The Yankees are still without Giancarlo Stanton, but with Aaron Judge and a red-hot Harrison Bader back in the fold, they're a tempting team today. New York has scored 21 runs over their past three games, and they appear to be putting their early-season offensive struggles behind them. Aaron Judge is predictably an expensive piece, but this lineup offers a wide range of pricing options to make stacking them reasonably accessible.
The main reason we like the Yankees today is the matchup. Kyle Muller's struggles are highlighted above. He brings a 7.59 xERA and has been rocked to the tune of a .549 xSLG and .409 xwOBA. Looking beyond Muller, Oakland sports the worst bullpen ERA in baseball this season, so scoring opportunities will certainly be available.
Favorite Plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Harrison Bader
Houston Astros vs. Griffin Canning
The Astros have underwhelmed in 2023, but the firepower is there. This slate has deeper pitching options, so this is one of the few spots where a great lineup meets weaker pitching. High prices on guys like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker will help keep ownership lower, while more affordable options such as Mauricio Dubon and Jose Abreu can fill out your stacks.
Griffin Canning missed nearly two years after a stress fracture in his back. He's still trying to find his groove on the mound, and the results have not been pretty thus far. Canning sports a 5.40 xERA alongside weak numbers like a .474 xSLG, .355 xwOBA, 42.4% hard-hit rate, and 10.2% barrel rate.
Favorite Plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, Mauricio Dubon
Also Consider: Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals
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