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Happy Monday, everyone. I hope you had a great weekend filled with baseball. We welcome the work week back with an eight-game slate. Today's slate has some excellent top-end pitching options and little value on the bump. We will sort through the best options at the top of the board and talk about a punt who can be a game-changer for us when salary is needed.
Bats are hard to come by with the stacked options at pitching, but there are a few spots we can attack. We also have one offense in a perfect spot today against an arm due for some negative regression after a big league debut where everything went his way. We may see some “bad chalk” today with some bats, so I will do my best to give the best positively leveraged stacks on today's slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/8/2023 and the slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Zac Gallen, ARZ vs. MIA ($10,200 DK, $11,300 FD)
Zac Gallen will face the Miami Marlins Monday night in the familiar confines of Chase Field. Gallen has been tremendous to start 2023. He is 4-1 with a 2.47 SIERA, 35.2% K, and a 13.4% SwStr. He has gone at least six innings in five of his last six starts and has thrown 94 or more pitches in all those outings. Gallen has also yet to allow a run at home in 2023. He has a 49.3% K and a 0.49 WHIP at Chase Field this season, and although a lot of that seems like noise, Gallen has been much better at home in his career.
The Marlins have been well below average against right-hand pitching in 2023. They have an 82 wRC+, a 24.7% K, and a .359 SLG, all bottom eight in baseball. Gallen should be able to exploit this matchup and pitch deep into this game, creating a safe floor for cash games and an upside for GPPs. Gallen is my SP1 tonight in cash.
Dylan Cease, CWS @ KC ($9,700 DK, $9,100 FD)
Cease has not been his usual self since the start of 2023, but the underlying numbers still show the stuff is there. Cease is 2-1 with a 4.37 SIERA, 26.2% K, and 12.2% SwStr. He has faced a gauntlet of teams to start the year. On average, the teams he has faced through seven starts have a 113 wRC+ against right-hand pitching.
For perspective, his opponent, the Kansas City Royals, has a 74 wRC+. The Royals are also seventh in baseball with a 25.0% K against right-hand pitching. I think the slow start to the season will cause Cease to be a bit lower-owned in what is his best matchup this young season. Cease is my favorite GPP play on tonight’s slate and is my SP1 for tournaments.
JP Sears, OAK @ NYY ($6,300 DK, $7,000 FD)
Full disclosure: I will likely be paying up for pitching on today's slate, but if you are looking for a punt on DraftKings, Sears is your guy. He starts today with a 4.08 SIERA, 25.8% K, and an 11.9% SwStr. He also gets a favorable matchup here against, what’s weird to say, the New York Yankees. The Yanks have a 22.7% K, with an 89 wRC+ against left-hand pitching this season. Even more astonishing is they have a .338 SLG, the second worst in baseball. This matchup is exploitable, and Sears is mispriced for his production this season, yet alone his matchup here today.
Also consider: Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 1B/OF, SF vs. Jake Irvin ($3,200 DK, $3,000 FD)
Wade is my favorite play tonight, on my favorite stack. He faces rookie Jake Irvin whose underlying numbers show he was very lucky in his major league debut and is due for some negative regression. Who better to make him pay than LaMonte Wade and his .415 wOBA, .261 ISO, and 41.5% hard hit against right-hand pitching in 2023. I love that you can get him in the OF on DraftKings, making him my first bat to jam into lineups tonight.
Matt Mervis - 1B, CHC vs. Miles Mikolas ($2,200 DK, $2,300 FD)
Matt Mervis has done nothing but hit in the minor leagues. Last season he hit .309 with 36 HR and 119 RBI in three levels in the Cubs system. Mervis was hitting .262, with five home runs before his call-up. He’s way too cheap in this matchup, and until his price settles to where it should be, he’s a must-play because of his hit tool.
Cal Raleigh - C, SEA vs. Jon Gray ($4,100 DK, $2,900 FD)
Jon Gray has struggled to a 5.63 SIERA this year with a 1.76 HR/9. Gray has a .407 wOBA, .237 ISO, and a 47.2% hard hit against left-hand hitters this year. He has only struck out lefties to an 11.3% clip. Gray has no way to get lefties out at the moment. Raleigh has a .328 wOBA, .221 ISO, and a 41.3% hard hit this season. He does have a 29.6% K, which shouldn’t matter here as Gray can’t seem to miss bats in the early going.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Joc Pederson - OF, SF vs. Jake Irvin ($4,000 DK, $3,000 FD)
Pederson gets the same matchup here tonight as LaMonte Wade making the duo my favorite two bats to pair. Pederson has a .323 wOBA, .213 ISO, and a 52.2% hard hit against right-hand pitching this season. His struggles have always been making contact, but Irvin does not have the swing-and-miss that makes us worry about Pederson’s upside. I sense a dinger here from Pederson tonight.
Chas McCormick - OF, HOU vs. Patrick Sandoval ($3,700 DK, $3,500 FD)
McCormick is set to return for the IL to face Patrick Sandoval and the Angels. McCormick was on a tear before hitting the IL, especially against left-hand pitching. I hope he slides back into the lead-off role, but we’ll have to wait and see. McCormick has a .538 wOBA, .500 ISO, and a 55.6% hard hit against left-hand pitching in 2023.
Luis Robert Jr. - OF, CWS vs. Zack Greinke ($4,200 DK, $2,900 FD)
After a slow start to the season, Robert is starting to turn it on. Over his last 15 games, Robert has a 112 wRC+, .335 wOBA, and .225 ISO. His adversary Zack Greinke has always shown signs of reverse splits, so this is an excellent matchup for Robert. Robert is cheap on both sites and has a ton of upside at that price.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. San Fransisco Giants vs. Jake Irvin
The Giants will face Jake Irvin in his second career big league start today at Oracle Park. Irvin allowed one earned run in his big league debut, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. Irvin had a 7.21 SIERA and 21.1% BB. He had a 15.8% K and only a 4.9% SwStr. He also had a .182 BABIP. If this doesn’t scream regression to you, then DFS isn’t your thing. Irvin struggled to a 5.64 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in Triple-A before his call-up last week.
The Giants are in a great spot here against Irvin as they have mashed right-hand pitching this season when they have put the ball in play. They have a 119 wRC+, a .463 SLG, and a .347 wOBA, all fourth-best in baseball. They lead the league in K%, but Irvin will not miss many bats here tonight; as I stated before, the K and SwStr percentage is not his strength. Giants are the top stack on the board, and I don’t know if they will get the ownership they deserve.
Favorite Plays: LaMonte Wade Jr., Joc Pederson, Mitch Haniger, Thairo Estrada, Blake Sabol
2. Chicago Cubs vs. Miles Mikolas
After the Giants, we have to dig a little to find stacks I love. I will have two full Giants stacks in three-entry max, which I rarely do. If I had to pick another team, I would full-man stack tonight; it would be the Cubs. They continue to improve offensively after call-ups of top prospects Matt Mervis and Miguel Amaya. The Cubs have a 109 wRC+, a .418 SLG, and a .333 wOBA against right-hand pitching in 2023. They are top ten in baseball in all three categories, and the bats they are bringing up are, without a doubt, improvements over Eric Hosmer and company.
Mikolas has a .440 SIERA, 1.69 HR/9, and a 35.9% hard hit through seven starts this season. He has a .385 wOBA, .239 ISO, and a 51.0% hard hit against lefties. His splits against righties aren’t much better, with a .371 wOBA, .174 ISO, and a 40.0% hard hit. He keeps the ball on the ground at 41.4% GB against righties compared to 25.5% GB against lefties, so the focus here will be left-handed bats.
Favorite Plays: Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, Matt Mervis, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson
Also Consider:
3. Seattle Mariners (LHH) vs. Jon Gray
4. Chicago White Sox vs. Zack Greinke
5. Houston Astros (RHH) vs. Patrick Sandoval
DraftKings and FanDuel Cores
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