Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for Launch Angle (Week 5)

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose launch angles could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 5.

Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. Last week, I wrote about average exit velocity (EV), and this week, I'll focus on a related metric: launch angle (LA).

Pitchers can find success by allowing fly balls. But they generally strive to get hitters to put the ball on the ground since a ground ball, even a hard-hit one, is less likely to go for a hit or damaging contact. The landscape has changed somewhat this season with the banning of shifts, but pitchers historically have tried to keep the ball out of the air.

While LA alone does not paint a pitcher's complete story, it is a good indicator as to what type of results they could experience throughout the season. I will pick two SPs in the top percentiles of LA and two in the bottom, take a look under the hood, and predict what we can expect from them going forward. Pitching in general has been quite variable to this point, but let's see what we can find!

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Launch Angle Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 23, 2023.

Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres

2-1, 2.78 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.3-Degree LA

After years of serving as a reliever, Seth Lugo is back as a starter for the Padres and has gotten off to a good start, compiling a 2.78 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 24.2% strikeout rate in four starts. Part of his success could be attributed to his low 2.3-degree LA. Should fantasy managers expect him to continue to produce in his new role?

Lugo does throw a sinker, but he doesn't rely on it primarily like a lot of ground ball pitchers. He has relied mostly on a curveball and four-seam fastball. This doesn't mean he can't continue to keep the ball on the ground, but his pitch location has me skeptical. Lugo has worked primarily in the top of the zone to this point, which makes his low LA surprising.

Lugo has never been a ground ball specialist with a career LA of 10.9 degrees. I would expect his LA to rise, especially given his pitch location. He has given up a lot of contact at 82.3%, which will present more opportunities for regression to occur.

Lugo seems to have outperformed his batted-ball profile to this point, and his expected stats suggest that. His expected batting average and expected slugging percentage are in the 30th and 38th percentiles of baseball, respectively.

Overall, Lugo has been a surprise fantasy starter so far, but there are a number of underlying signs that he may not continue to be this good. He has induced a low LA but has pitched in the top of the zone while allowing a lot of contact. His exit velocities have been middling as well, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some negative regression for him. This makes Lugo a decent sell-high candidate at this time.

Anthony DeSclafani, San Francisco Giants

1-1, 2.63 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 2.4-Degree LA

While he struggled with injuries in 2022, Anthony DeSclafani was a surprise fantasy asset with the Giants in 2021 and appears to be back in form. Through four starts, he has a 2.63 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 22.8% strikeout rate. He also has allowed an encouraging 2.4-degree launch angle. While the Giants are finicky with how they manage their starting rotation, could DeSclafani be a staple for fantasy managers?

Unlike Lugo, DeSclafani does primarily throw a sinker in addition to a slider and changeup. His location hasn't been great to start the season, but his pitch mix does profile as one that is more conducive to keeping the ball out of the air. His overall profile does mirror Lugo's in that his expected stats are worse than his achieved stats so far, although he hasn't allowed as much contact at 79.8%.

There may be regression coming for DeSclafani as well, but it is worth noting that the Giants have had great success at getting the most out of their starters in the past few seasons and DeSclafani was an example of that in 2021. It seems that he will be one of the mainstay starters in their rotation and he does have the benefit of pitching his home games at Oracle Park.

Given his track record and the fact that he has served as a starter throughout his career, I am more inclined to trust DeSclafani than Lugo at this time. While both have similar batted-ball profiles so far, DeSclafani's pitch mix could lend itself more to keeping balls out of the air over Lugo's. We will see in a few more starts how this take looks.

Launch Angle Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 23, 2023.

Nestor Cortes Jr., New York Yankees

3-0, 3.09 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 28.8-Degree LA

Nestor Cortes came out of nowhere in 2021 as an unconventional, deceptive pitcher and has proved to be a legitimate high-end fantasy option. He has gotten off to a solid start in 2023, going 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 23.7% strikeout rate. However, he has allowed a lot of contact in the air at 28.8 degrees. Pitching in Yankee Stadium, could this come back to bite him?

Pitchers can get away with allowing contact in the air if it is not hard. Cortes has done a decent job of this, with an exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 58th and 69th percentiles of baseball, respectively. Further, if an LA becomes too high, then the contact becomes pop-ups rather than line drive fly balls. Cortes's LA has been so high that it has not led to that sweet spot swing that hitters have tried to achieve during the Fly Ball Revolution.

Cortes has proven to be more than just a quirky starter. He still mixes up his delivery but has gotten great results while allowing soft contact in the air. He should continue to be a solid fantasy option.

Nestor Cortes just casually threw a 69 MPH sweeper 😂 pic.twitter.com/o1nMe5yFw0

— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) April 20, 2023

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays

2-0, 2.61 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 22.5-Degree LA

The final pitcher has been the talk of the fantasy town. Taj Bradley is one of fantasy's top prospects and has pitched like it early, winning both starts with a 2.61 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 42.5% strikeout rate. One potential blemish is a high LA of 22.5 degrees. Is this something fantasy managers should worry about?

I think that it is too early to really draw any concrete conclusions about Bradley. He has allowed hard contact in the air, but he has allowed so little contact that it hasn't mattered. Overall, Bradley has looked solid, as evidenced by his Statcast profile. Fantasy managers shouldn't jump to too many conclusions, but have many reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

Bradley has looked every bit the part of one of baseball's top prospects through two starts and has flashed encouraging skills. He has allowed hard contact in the air, but his positives more than outweigh the negatives after just two starts. Hopefully, he can keep things going now that he should have a spot in the Rays' rotation.

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