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When playing fantasy baseball, the player pool is so deep you have to know it front and back. A key strategy I use when I am preparing for my fantasy baseball drafts is to narrow down my player pool.
While I am still about a month and a half from drafting some of my main teams, it's never too early to take a look at how things sit and formulate ideas.
Below are the five infield hitters I am most likely going to cross off from my player pool in 2023 in my 12-team leagues. You can also read part two of this series with these overvalued outfielders.
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Jose Abreu, 1B, Houston Astros
It's amazing how things can change. For a few years, Jose Abreu was a staple in my fantasy baseball lineups. Now I am out here fading him every chance I can get and I don't care how scarce first base is.
His ATC projection for 2023 is 21 HR, 78 R, 83 RBI, and a .272 average. For me, 21 home runs are too few from a starting first baseman, I don't care how good of an average he has. Last year, he hit .304, but only had 15 home runs, so there is no doubt he can hit for contact, but to be drafted in the top 90 as the fifth 1B off the board doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
You can find batting average in other positions and draft one of Nathaniel Lowe, Rhys Hoskins, C.J. Cron, and Christian Walker, and likely end up with a better roster than drafting Abreu at pick 90.
Now, if Abreu comes back to form and hits 25-30 HR, then I'm dead wrong. At age 36, how likely is that though? At this point in his career, he is likely a better real-life player than a fantasy player, and I can't risk a 15 HR season in my lineup from a key position.
Andres Gimenez, 2B, Cleveland Guardians
In 2022, Andres Gimenez had a nice season with 17 HR, 20 SB, 66 R, 69 RBI, and a .297 batting average. So why am I avoiding him in 2023?
Because I have no idea where those numbers came from and also because he burned me before.
In 2021, I was all-in on Gimenez as a source of cheap steals, and he was a disappointment, batting .218 with five HR and 11 SB in just 68 games played in the Majors.
Then he comes into 2022, hits for his highest batting average since 2016 Rookie Ball, hit more home runs than he has ever hit, and also has 20 steals.
Coming up as a prospect, it was known he was fast and he could steal. He was also known more for his defensive ability than his offensive ability. Has he developed or did he just have a career year?
If he repeats his production, he is a bargain, as he would be a top 50-60 fantasy player at an ADP of pick 84. If he bats .250 with eight home runs and 20 steals, then it isn't a bargain.
I just don't want to take that chance. I like to avoid players coming off of career years. Gimenez is young, just 24, and this could be the beginning of a great career. I just want to wait and see it and if he beats me, he beats me.
His ATC projection is essentially a repeat of last year's production with a .265 average: 16 HR, 21 SB, 72 R, and 67 RBI.
Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Gunnar Henderson is a nice prospect with a promising career, but he is going too high in fantasy drafts with his ADP at pick 98.
His ATC projection is a .253 average with 20 HR, 73 R, 70 RBI, and 11 SB. This projection reminds me of a Ryan McMahon profile as last season McMahon hit .246 with 20 HR, 67 R, 67 RBI, and seven SB. McMahon's production on the Razzball Player Rater was 15th among 3B and 139th overall. It's not bad, but is the numbers of a fringe starting 3B in a 15-team league or a CI player in a 12-team league going in the top 100?
McMahon is going at pick 213 on average. He won't have the upside that Henderson has, but he has put up two consecutive seasons similar to this one, so I would say there is a higher floor from McMahon than there is from Henderson.
With only 34 Major League games under his belt, there is a lot more uncertainty with Henderson and he is being drafted as if his 80th percentile projection is his median projection. Henderson's prospect profile is that of a power hitter, but at age 21 in his first full major league season, how likely is that to happen?
If he produces somewhere between a Machado and a Devers, then you hit the jackpot. If he struggles and produces more like Yoan Moncada, then you put your team in a tough spot as third base is probably the most scarce position in 2023.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B, Miami Marlins
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is going around pick 36 in NFBC drafts, which is the second 2B drafted behind Jose Altuve and ahead of Marcus Semien. What has he done to warrant such a high draft slot?
In 2021, he had a nice season with 18 HR, 70 R, 53 RBI, and 23 SB, with a .248 average in 507 plate appearances. In 2022, his ADP was in the 60s-70 range coming off of that season.
Then, through 60 games, he had 14 HR, 39 R, 45 RBI, and 12 SB with a .254 average. Fantasy managers are doubling these numbers and assuming if healthy, Chisholm can produce 28 HR, 80 R, 90 RBI, and 24 SB at least, because if he did it through 60 games, why can't he do it through 120 games or more?
Looking at 2022 further, he had a hot June where he hit seven home runs and doubled his home run total to 14. He also scored 18 runs, just three less than the first two months of the season combined as well. 50 percent of his home run production and 48 percent of his runs scored happened in one month of the season.
I'm not taking that away from Chisholm but it's clear he was not going to produce at the rate he was during the entire season. His batting average was dropping from .298 in March/April to .250 in May, to .254 in June.
Also in 2022, he hit just .143 vs. LHP. In fact, he has a career .223 average with just six of his 34 career home runs coming against left-handed pitching. With him likely moving to the outfield, is he someone that could sit out against LHP?
Lastly, even though he is young, we do not know how his back injury could affect his fantasy production. Will he be able to hit for power like he was doing during the first half of 2022?
ATC projects Chisholm to have 24 HR, 25 SB, 79 R, and 71 RBI, with a .244 average, which is pretty solid outside of the bad batting average.
That said, I think I'd be more likely to draft an Ozzie Albies, who ATC projects to have 24 HR, 14 SB, 82 R, 80 RBI, and a better .260 batting average who is also going one round later on average than Chisholm. Albies was going in the second round in 2022 and we can now get him in the fourth round because he isn't fresh in people's minds. Albies' injuries are less of a long-term concern for me as well.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fantasy baseball players love their prospects and boost them up so much.
Last season, Cruz did have some nice power/speed numbers with 17 HR and 10 steals through 87 games played. If playing 150 games, that would be on pace for 29 home runs and 17 steals.
When one looks at his ATC projection for 2023, it is similar to the above pace with 25 HR, 17 SB, 79 R, 74 RBI, and a .244 average. This looks very similar to Jazz Chisholm's projection and Cruz is going around pick 65 in NFBC Online Championship drafts vs. Chisholm at pick 36.
What concerns me about Cruz is his strikeouts. He had a 34.9% strikeout rate, and it is difficult to produce consistently with such a high strikeout rate. He hit .233 last year with a .317 BABIP, and that number could be the same or even worse until his approach at the plate changes. I think a .244 average is optimistic in the projection.
I can't take a core piece of my lineup with an unknown batting average. I like his power and speed potential, but Cruz is going to have a wide range of outcomes and I am not willing to take the risk of grabbing him.
Dansby Swanson is projected for 23 HR, 13 SB, 85 R, 79 RBI, and a .253 average. His ADP is 20 picks later and he has a more proven track record in the MLB.
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