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Ellis' betting breakdown for the two NFL playoff matchups this Sunday (1/22) that close out the Divisional Round, Bengals vs. Bills and Cowboys vs. 49ers.
The final NFL Sundays of the season are counting down; however, the stakes are rapidly increasing. I’m struggling to find the words to describe my excitement for these two Divisional Round games today (not the best issue to have for a writer).
Anyway, these two games hold an abundance of storylines each. Not only did the Cowboys win their first road playoff game since the 90s, but they now face arguably the most dominant team in the league led by a seventh-round rookie. As for the Bengals and Bills, this one speaks for itself. Three weeks ago, this game was canceled and the entire NFL community held its breath, and now Damar Hamlin has begun to make a miraculous recovery and I expect him to be in attendance for this game.
This might be one of the most anticipated non-Super Bowl matchups of all time. Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen and Dak Prescott vs. Brock Purdy, oh boy, do I have an article for you. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Divisional Round Sunday Preview. If articles aren't your jam, check out my TikTok previews @FiresideFantasy_FF.
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Bengals vs. Bills (3:00 PM ET)
I alluded to it above that this game will be dominated by Damar Hamlin’s narrative. And rightfully so, three weeks ago, these teams met and altered the NFL forever. Thanks to the incredible medical staff of both teams, the first responders, and the hospital workers, Hamlin is making an incredible recovery. I write these articles to discuss potential matchup-altering statistics and metrics that each team can take advantage of. However, it is impossible to quantify the impact Hamlin will have on this game, especially if he is in attendance. The emotional motivation that will erupt throughout this Bills team and fans will be deafening.
On the other side, the Bengals will also be impacted while trying to hang their hat on the fact that they were looking outstanding on their opening drive. Both of these teams struggled to overcome backup QB play by their divisional rivals last week. Hopefully, they’ll both bounce back for this barn burner of a matchup. The current line has the Bills favorited by five points and the over-under is set at an even 50 points.
Bengals
Ever since this matchup was originally scheduled in Week 17, I’ve been excited to see these two QBs duel for the first time in their careers. I love how these teams match up as well as the intangibles that these QBs possess. Joe Cool has earned his nickname tenfold, as since he has been a Bengal, the team has had four playoff wins. To put that in perspective, the franchise only had five previously.
Burrow now faces a defense that is often grouped at the top of the league. The Bills’ defense has allowed the 13th-fewest passing yards per game and the fourth-fewest rushing yards. On top of this, the Bills average the fourth-most takeaways per game (1.7). This fares well against a Bengals team that averages the seventh-most passing yards per game and also the fourth-fewest rushing yards.
Just like NFL fans around the world are hoping for, this game should come down to the arm of Burrow and the best WR trio in the league. The combination of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd will be instrumental to the Bengals' success. In Week 17, we saw the Bengals win the toss and elect to be aggressive and receive the opening kick-off. This led to an opening drive Boyd touchdown by an absolute dart from Joe Burrow. If that’s a sign of things to come, we’re in line for an excellent game this Sunday.
One statement my friends often criticize me for saying is that if I need to win one game, I’m choosing Burrow over Allen. It’s nothing against Allen, but I view these two as the new Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, respectively. Although Rodgers is often praised for his arm talent and flashy plays, Brady is the one that finds ways to win. I think that was put on full display as both these teams lost the overtime coin toss to the Chiefs in Arrowhead last year, but only one team managed to win. Blame the defense all you want, winners win.
Bills
I know I’m a Bengals fan and that last statement won’t sit well with Bills Mafia, but there is so much to like about this Bills team. Outside of their questionable drafting of punter Matt Araiza, there is nothing not to like about this team, their fans, the QB, their offense, their stadium, everything is awesome.
Plus, this team had an excellent season. Although a little up and down, over the course of the year, they managed to score the second-most points per game and allow the third-fewest. Despite the 49ers often being awarded the most complete team, the Bills definitely make it a competition. Plus, the Bills are averaging the fourth-most takeaways per game.
The potential key to this game will be can Buffalo slow down Burrow, Chase, Higgins, and Boyd? The Bengals are one of four teams with multiple 1000-yard WRs last season and averaged 260 passing yards per game. On the Bills' side, they have a star WR of their own in Stefon Diggs, who finished the season with the fifth-most yards and second-most receiving touchdowns at the position.
Lastly, the run game might struggle as the Bengals are allowing the ninth fewest rushing yards per game. This makes the passing game all the more necessary, and the Bengals are mediocre at best against the pass. Without the likes of Chidobe Awuzie leading this secondary, the Bengals allow the ninth-most passing yards per game (227).
I mentioned earlier that Damar Hamlin will have a huge impact on this team, and frankly the Bills seemed destined to shake their Super Bowl ghosts of the past. If they can make it through Burrow and potentially Patrick Mahomes, it would certainly be one of the greatest playoff runs in NFL history.
Ellis’ Picks (CIN vs. BUF)
Bengals +5.0, Over 50.0
What a game. Despite the defense giving the clear edge to the Bills, I think the Bengals possess a more consistent and dynamic offense. Although both teams struggled last week, I think the Bills' struggles were more concerning as their defense allowed 31 points and their offense kept turning the ball over.
On that note, I think turnovers will continue to be at a premium in this game. Not only did Josh Allen finish second in interceptions this season and first in redzone interceptions, but he also is coming off a three-turnover game against an average Dolphins defense. This Bengals defense may give up a lot of yards, but they also average 1.5 takeaways per game. My biggest concern is that the Bengals might be missing three of their five offensive line starters, which could change this game dramatically.
I think this game will come down to who makes the most mistakes. Based on their track record, it’s hard not to favor Burrow. Although I have no issue with the Bengals being underdogs, I was shocked to see that Vegas is giving the Cowboys a closer line than this one (which I’ll break down in a second). As for this game, I’m sticking to my gut and calling for a Bengals upset and shoot out.
Player Prop Parlays (CIN vs. BUF)
Joe Burrow Over 274.5 passing yards
Ja'Marr Chase Over 6.5 receptions
Tee Higgins Anytime TD
Tyler Boyd Over 34.5 receiving yards
+1000
Josh Allen Over 264.5 passing yards
Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions
Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 receptions
Stefon Diggs Anytime TD
+650
BONUS
Bengals and Bills to each score in every quarter +600
Cowboys vs. 49ers (6:30 PM ET)
In 2021, who would have thought three NFC East teams would be in the Divisional Round of the playoffs this year? Even if I told you that, you’d probably be even more shocked that the Cowboys managed to make it through the first round and be one of them. Having said that, if I said the 49ers made the Divisional Round with their third-string, seventh-round, rookie QB, you would probably laugh at me. This game is very intriguing. Can Dallas continue to shake their playoff ghosts? Or will the 49ers continue their dominance? This game line opened at SF favored by five and in the last 24 hours has shifted to only three and a half points. Meanwhile, the over-under has held firm and is shockingly the lowest of the weekend at 46.5.
Cowboys
I’ll be honest, I didn’t think this Cowboys team was any different than their playoff teams in the past. However, here I am with an egg on my face as they just dominated the GOAT on the road. This Cowboys team has shown sparks of electricity all year but has struggled to summon their magic in big games. Obviously, they took care of business last week, but now they face arguably the scariest team in the league.
The foundation of this Cowboys offense is their run game. Unfortunately, the best part of this 49ers team is their run defense. On the season, this team averaged the second-fewest rushing yards per game (79.2), over 10 points fewer than the third-best NFL team. Thankfully, this team can be passed on as they allow the 12th-most passing yards per game (probably because no one can run against them).
It’ll definitely be a long day for both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott on the ground; however, CeeDee Lamb should continue his career year this weekend. All season, Lamb has been a true alpha WR, making spectacular catches and splash plays when needed. Surprisingly, Dalton Schultz has also been great down the stretch. Along with depth WRs Michael Gallup and Noah Brown.
This will be a huge test for this Cowboys team, and more specifically Dak Prescott. The veteran QB led the league in interceptions this year, despite missing five full games. Considering the 49ers team is allowing the fewest points against and the second-most takeaways, Prescott will need to have another clean game to make it through this one with a win.
49ers
This team is so good. I’m not even a 49ers fan but I can’t dispute their utter dominance down the stretch. Outside of one surprise overtime game against Jarrett Stidham, they have physically bullied their opponents. Just ask Geno Smith and the Seahawks, who had a rude wake-up call at halftime last week.
There really isn’t a weak part of this team. Yes, that includes Brock Purdy. Purdy has been great at avoiding pressure in the pocket and limiting turnovers. That will be key in this matchup considering the Cowboys lead the league in takeaways per game. If he doesn’t turn over the ball, that’s all you need at the position when you have weapons such as George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel. Oh yes, Deebo Samuel, remember him? After being injured at the end of the season, he exploded with trademark yards after the receiving touchdown last week.
Dallas is allowing the eighth-fewest passing yards; however, they also allow the 10th-most rushing yards per game. Going against this 49ers offense, the one thing you don’t want is a porous run defense. Both McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell found the endzone last week and neither should be afraid of this Cowboys front.
This write-up wouldn’t be complete without mentioning Defensive Player of the Year favorite, Nick Bosa. Bosa should have a day against the Cowboys line and force Dak to make some questionable throws. If this team can force turnovers and run the ball, it’s hard to see them losing this game at home.
Ellis' Picks (DAL vs. SF)
49ers -3.5, Under 46.5
I LOVE the 49ers in this one. Ideally, this line would move to three points even, but if it stays at three and a half, I still love it. This team is just better than the Cowboys all around; defense, run game, and receiving options. In fact, Purdy has been so good lately that it’s hard seeing him as a downgrade to Dak.
The over-under in this game is where I’m a little stumped. Both of these defenses thrive on turnovers and big plays. However, I expect it’ll be in both teams’ best interests to have a conservative game plan. As a result, I lean under.
Player Prop Parlays (DAL vs. SF)
Christian McCaffrey Over 106.5 total yards
Brandon Aiyuk Over 53.5 receiving yards
Brock Purdy Under 239.5 passing yards
+1200
Dak Prescott Over 0.5 interceptions
CeeDee Lamb Over 77.5 receiving yards
Tony Pollard Over 46.5 rushing yards
Over 1.5 Field Goals (Brett Maher bounce-back shout-out)
+1000
Thanks for checking out my work. Catch me here next week as I break down the next round!
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