Jon Anderson's Early Third Base Tiers & Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

1 year ago by Jon Anderson

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2. Tier 2 - Elite Power, Good Average

3. Tier 3 - The Young Guns

4. Tier 4 - Boring But Useful

5. Tier 5 - Missing Something

6. Tier 6 - Not Much to Write Home About

7. Tier 7 - The Rest

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Welcome back RotoBallers to my early 2023 fantasy baseball rankings and projections series! Today, we are covering third base! Here is what we've done so far:

Third base is a really interesting position this year. There are a handful of really, really good hitters at the top - but then the position quickly dries up. Let's break it down.

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Tier 1 - Jose

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Jose Ramirez	CLE	1	1	632	96	28	102	30	.300

J-Ram has found a way to return top 20 results every year since 2017. He's gone above 35 homers twice, above a .280 batting average three times, and he's stolen 20+ bases four times in this span. He's just spectacular.

He played half of 2022 with a bad thumb, which undoubtedly brought down his power production, and he still hit 29 homers while stealing 20 bags and hitting .280. He has taken care of the thumb, and it should not be an issue next year. That gives J-Ram 30-30-.300 upside; I'm not sure there's another player that can do that.

Tier 2 - Elite Power, Good Average

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Austin Riley	ATL	2	2	616	91	32	96	1	.284
Manny Machado	SD	3	2	621	86	26	91	11	.263
Rafael Devers	BOS	4	2	618	85	30	90	4	.280
Nolan Arenado	STL	5	2	677	94	34	109	4	.270

If I don't get my hands on Ramirez, I am attacking this group of hitters with one of my next three picks. I'm lower on Bobby Witt Jr. than most just because I'd rather see it again before I invest that heavily into him. These four hitters give you solid track records of fantasy success, and you can pretty much bank on 30-ish homers from all of them if they stay healthy. In all likelihood, they'll all hit for a useful batting average as well while contending for the league lead in R+HR. What you don't get is steals, but I'm fine with that given how solid these four guys are.

Tier 3 - The Young Guns

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Bobby Witt Jr.	KC	6	3	665	85	21	72	30	.246
Gunnar Henderson	BAL	7	3	683	73	19	77	18	.251

These two both have #1 3B upside. Witt is projecting for 20-30, and projections are pretty conservative most of the time. He has a 30-30 upside for sure, but he's on a bad team and his 8.7% barrel rate last year was short of great. I could see him falling shy of 25 homers and not hitting for a great batting average, which would not cover it at his price.

As for Henderson, a lot of people are really into him. He hit the ball very hard as a rookie and managed strikeouts. He's one of the game's top prospects, so yes - there's an upside. What I don't like is the 57% GB% he put up last year and the 26% strikeout rate. Both of these things aren't impossible to remedy, but I have my doubts that he can really be a 20-homer guy this early on in his career.

Tier 4 - Boring But Useful

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Alex Bregman	HOU	8	4	618	78	17	82	1	.255
Matt Chapman	TOR	9	4	619	80	28	89	3	.236
Eugenio Suarez	SEA	10	4	598	74	30	78	0	.222
Max Muncy	LAD	11	4	580	80	26	93	3	.235
Jose Miranda	MIN	12	4	555	59	14	58	2	.258

I will probably sit out Tier 3, but I'll be looking for one of these guys as my corner infielder. Chapman, Suarez, and Muncy are good HR+RBI bats later in the draft, although you have to eat a pretty bad batting average because of it. You probably want to have a strong batting average on your team when pulling the trigger on one of them - but I love the price on all of them.

The young guy Miranda sneaks in here for me. I really like what he showed as a rookie with the sub-19% strikeout rate and 42% hard-hit rate while avoiding the ground ball. I think he could be a sneaky 25-homer, .280 batting average guy this year.

Tier 5 - Missing Something

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Ke'Bryan Hayes	PIT	13	5	588	66	10	69	22	.246
Alec Bohm	PHI	14	5	627	63	11	62	5	.261
Ryan McMahon	COL	15	5	610	76	22	80	8	.245
Josh Rojas	ARI	16	5	497	57	10	63	17	.257
Eduardo Escobar	NYM	17	5	378	47	16	44	0	.239

We are now into the territory where you probably don't want to start any of these guys. They all have the upside to be start-worthy players, but in most cases this year, they will underwhelm. Hayes and Bohm hit the ball very hard and limit strikeouts, but they've had their problems lifting the ball enough to rack up homers for multiple years.

McMahon added on some power last year, and you always have to give a Rockies hitter a little bit of a boost just because those home games can raise their batting average so much - but the days of him being a breakout candidate are behind us.

Rojas and Escobar are good for what they are (some speed from Rojas, some power from Escobar), but I don't think either guy is an everyday player this season.

Tier 6 - Not Much to Write Home About

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Josh Jung	TEX	18	6	521	53	15	52	4	.231
Brandon Drury	LAA	19	6	474	56	18	55	1	.239
Anthony Rendon	LAA	20	6	549	64	17	74	3	.228
Justin Turner	BOS	21	6	539	64	16	74	3	.267
Yandy Diaz	TB	22	6	602	85	11	58	3	.279
Jordan Walker	STL	23	6	417	49	12	48	12	.235
Brendan Donovan	STL	24	6	547	65	8	72	10	.277

Jung and Walker are the "exciting" players here as top prospects for their teams set to get some serious run in the Majors. We've already seen Jung struggle mightily with the strikeout (38% K%), so that's a big problem. As for Walker, we just haven't seen him in the Majors yet and there's no guarantee he makes the team out of camp anyways - so you're risking a lot by selecting him.

There's some late-round batting average here with Turner, Diaz, and Donovan - so that works if your team needs it. All things considered though, these are guys you'd rather have on your bench than in your starting lineup if you can help it.

Tier 7 - The Rest

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
J.D. Davis	SF	25	7	374	46	13	45	2	.280
Luis Rengifo	LAA	26	7	419	48	10	45	9	.255
Jon Berti	MIA	27	7	362	41	7	40	32	.227
Ha-Seong Kim	SD	28	7	511	66	10	45	12	.217
Jeimer Candelario	WSH	29	7	576	60	16	66	1	.266
Yoan Moncada	CHW	30	7	567	61	16	68	3	.246
Gio Urshela	LAA	31	7	458	55	12	54	1	.279

Rounding out the top 30 here, and there's not much to love. I don't see any of these guys as even potential bust-outs (maybe Rengifo?), and they all have their share of injury and playing time questions. Jon Berti can be drafted if you just forego steals early on in the draft, but I would really rather not rely on him for that category. I don't want anybody in this tier.

My overall strategy is to get two of the top 12 here. I would love to start my team with J-Ram, but I'd be pumped to draft Riley/Devers in the third round. I will then look to go after Chapman/Suarez/Muncy for some solid power numbers for a good price. I'm not averse to taking the shot on the Hayes/Bohm tier, I like those young players with locked-in spots in the lineup - those are the types that can really beat their draft price without giving you a zero floor.

There you have it, third base! I'll be back soon with a huge post covering the outfield.

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