Booms and Busts: Week 15 Fantasy Football Studs and Duds, Including: Trevor Lawrence, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, Chris Olave

December 18, 2022

Ellis' fantasy football start 'em and sit'em for Week 15 lineups in 2022. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.

We’re flying through the season here. For the third straight article, I’m going to emphasize the importance of making correct lineup decisions over this stretch. Which, on that note, I hope you didn’t listen to my RB advice last week!

Hey, we all get stuff wrong, but if you can’t laugh at yourself, you’re doing it wrong. As always, I hold myself accountable at the end of this article. Please feel free to give it a glance or come chirp me on Twitter (@YoitsEllis_FF) if that’ll make you feel better.

This week, we have four days with NFL football – what a treat. Hopefully, we got all of our misses out of the way last week, so we can crush these calls for those of you in fantasy playoffs or trying to get there. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Week 15 Boom and Bust article. If articles aren't your jam, check out my shorter version of this article on TikTok @FiresideFantasy_FFL.

Laying the Boom

Matt Ryan (QB, IND)

With the news of Mike White not starting, I'm going to move my Boom pick to Matt Ryan. I know, this might be a little surprising since he has three straight weeks with sub-10 fantasy points and only more than 20 points twice this season. However, I'm pairing him with my Boom WR (spoiler alert).

The Vikings have allowed the third most fantasy points and passing TDs, as well as the most passing yards per game over the last five weeks. Arguably, more importantly, they are allowing the ninth fewest RB rushing yards over that span. If this Vikings team can slow down Jonathan Taylor and score points, then Ryan might be forced into having a very productive day. I have him inside my top 15 for this week.

Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)

All offseason, we heard how the RB dead zone never bears fruit. Well, if it wasn’t for the incredible season of Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders would be in consideration for the draft steal of the year. Sanders is the RB8 on the season and has an incredible 11 rushing TDs.

This week, he faces a Bears defense that has been brutal at stopping the run. More specifically, they have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position over the last five weeks, as well as the sixth-most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns over that span. Coming off a massive 155-yard and two-touchdown performance, I expect him to keep this ball rolling and find the endzone again. That’s right, Pie Shop is open for the breakout RB.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)

For my Boom WR, I’m going with a guy who had two receptions for 16 yards when we last saw him. Since then, this team has had their bye and I’m hoping they figured their offense out.

Either way, the Colts are taking on the Vikings, who have been brutal on defense lately. They are allowing the most fantasy points, yards, and receptions to the position. Before the Colts' embarrassing performance against the Cowboys, Pittman had at least six targets in every game but one this year, including with seven games of nine-plus targets. That volume is incredible, especially against a poor defense. I expect the young WR will have a bounce-back game and finish in the top-15 at the position.

Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN)

From my Bust pick last week to my Boom play this week, it’s hard to stay mad at someone with such great hair. This week, Dulcich faces a horrific Cardinals defense that hasn’t been able to stop the TE position all season. All I need to say here is that Arizona is allowing the most fantasy points to the position with 15.5 points per game. For perspective, the second-most is Seattle with 13.3 points per game.

Mike White (QB, NYJ)

*Zach Wilson has been named the starter, as White is dealing with a rib injury*

Even though White is not starting, I am going to leave my analysis as I hope it gives you a chuckle and can be applied loosely to Wilson.

I’m going to pull my own Zach Wilson here and not take responsibility nor give credit where it’s due. So I won’t name who I’m talking about when I say: Mike White is a breath of fresh air from everyone’s least favorite entitled private school kid with Oedipus Complex issues.  

He takes on a Lions defense that makes fewer stops than the train in Denzel Washington’s film Unstoppable. I’m talking they’re allowing the most fantasy points and third-most passing yards to the position. Even Zach Wilson is playable as a mid-tier QB2.

Fear the Bust

Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)

After arguably his best performance as a professional, Lawrence gets to take on a very tough Dallas team. Last week was awesome for the young QB, passing for nearly 400 yards and three touchdowns. However, this Dallas team thrives on pressuring the QB, which Lawrence has struggled with in the past. I expect the Cowboys’ defense will be extra motivated after allowing the Texans to score 23 points and almost sneak a win. I don’t think you can bench Lawrence, but I’d temper my expectations to outside the top 12 this week.

Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR)

Last week, I called for THE WR1 in PPR formats to be a bust, and Stefon Diggs finished with under six fantasy points. I guess I’m a sucker for punishment as now I’m naming THE RB1 as my Bust pick.

This selection has nothing to do with Jacobs, as he has been excellent. Instead, this has everything to do with the matchup. New England is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game over the last five weeks, the fourth-fewest rushing yards, and the fewest rushing touchdowns. Although I think the Raiders will want to run the ball, I am not sure they will find success. I have Jacobs outside of my top 12 for this week.

Chris Olave (WR, NO)

There is no denying that Olave has a very bright future ahead of him. He has looked every bit the part of a budding star WR and has been excellent for fantasy. However, I think he might have a slow week this week.

Many people see the matchup with the Falcons and assume that they’re the same abysmal defense they’ve been in the past. However, A.J. Terrell has been elite this season. Often, because of the Falcons' defense as a whole, he gets lost in the discussion of great young corners behind Sauce Gardner and Patrick Surtain II.

Although he might not be as good as them, he has helped this Falcons' defense limit WRs to the fewest touchdowns and third-fewest yards to the position over the last five weeks. The Falcons will try to keep this magic going in this huge divisional game. Plus, if this Saints defense can take advantage of Desmond Ridder’s first start, they might not pass much. 

Evan Engram (TE, JAX)

After being the highest-scoring fantasy player in Week 14, it should be no surprise that Engram makes the bust section this week. The Cowboys are averaging 25 yards to the TE position and the third-fewest fantasy points over the last five games. This matchup is perfect for Engram to regress to his back-end TE1 ways. For reference, I have him outside of my top 10 this week.

Thanks again for letting me help you with potential start/sit decisions. Here is a summary of last week’s article.

Last Week's Booms and Busts Summary

Booms

• Justin Herbert (QB, LAC): 367 yds, one TD, eight rush yds, 18.5 fpts
• Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, MIA).: *injured* 26 yds, 2.6 fpts
• D'Andre Swift (RB, DET): 39 total yds, three rec, 5.4 fpts
• Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ): Six rec, 78 yds, 10.8 fpts
• T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN): Six rec, 77 yds, one fumble, 8.7 fpts

Busts

• Dak Prescott (QB, DAL): 284 yds, one TD, two INT, 23 rush yds, 12.7 fpts
• Najee Harris (RB, PIT): 50 total yds, one TD, two rec, 12 fpts
• Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF): Three rec, 35 yds, 5.0 fpts
• Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN): Three rec, 42 yds, 5.7 fpts

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