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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - 49ers vs Cardinals showdown slate on 11/21. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 11 has gone well. I had a great day yesterday, going 4-1 on bets while cashing in all the DFS slates that I played. I'll look to keep the train rolling tonight as we have a short turnaround into a three-game slate on Thanksgiving Thursday. Tonight, though, we'll take a look at an NFC West Showdown as the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) take on the Arizona Cardinals (4-6) in Mexico City. It'll be an interesting slate considering Kyler Murray is a game-time decision in this one, and while it seems like Colt McCoy will end up being the starter in this one, I'll do my best to update should Murray suit up for this one.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the 49ers vs Cardinals NFL DFS showdown slate on November 21st. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Christian McCaffrey - RB, $17,100 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 125 rushes, 563 rushing yards, 60 targets, 47 receptions, 395 rushing yards, seven touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -8.9% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -4.5% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Christian McCaffery. I'll make it clear that I'm not picking McCaffery with the thought that he's going to light it up on the ground tonight. While the 49ers are 8.5-point favorites, the game script could lead to a breakout spot for him on the ground, and I'd have to assume that he'll end up splitting carries with Elijah Mitchell. With that said, the 49ers do have a projected 41.47% DVOA to running backs in the passing game, so I project CMC to do the majority of his damage in the passing game.
Jimmy Garoppolo - QB, $14,400 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,931 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, four interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 23.3% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 8.2% (19th), per Football Outsiders.
Throwing CMC the ball will be Jimmy Garoppolo. I've mentioned in previous articles that Garoppolo isn't the "ideal" fantasy quarterback. However, the 49ers do have a relative passing funnel tonight -- with a projected pass DVOA of 22.11% and a projected rush DVOA of -10.09%. My model projects Jimmy G to complete 72.24% of his pass attempts tonight for 273.44 yards and 1.99 touchdowns. He's cheaper than your typical QB on a showdown slate, and that's why I have him slated in here.
Other Captains/MVPs: George Kittle, DeAndre Hopkins, 49ers D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
DeAndre Hopkins - WR, $10,400 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 46 targets, 36 receptions, 396 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Deommodore Lenoir): 17% targets per route, 79% catch rate, 0.29 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, we have DeAndre Hopkins. I mentioned at the top of the article that Kyler Murray is a game-time decision for this one. Fortunately, Hopkins is seemingly QB-proof. He's logged at least 13 targets in three of his first four games since returning from suspension and hauled in 10 of his 14 targets for 98 yards last Sunday while Colt McCoy was under center. Hopkins is a bit too pricy for me on FanDuel, but I love him in this spot on DraftKings.
George Kittle - TE, $7,000 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 41 targets, 29 receptions, 340 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Isaiah Simmons): 12% targets per route, 89% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
One player that I absolutely LOVE on both sites tonight is George Kittle. The Cardinals have a projected 41.57% DVOA against tight ends in this matchup, and Kittle has a strong matchup advantage against Isaiah Simmons, according to PFF. My model projects Kittle to grab 6.21 of his 6.95 targets tonight for 70.33 yards and a 59% chance of scoring a touchdown. He's certainly an option in the 1.5x spot and he'll be in most if not all of my lineups.
Other Flex Options: Colt McCoy, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Rondale Moore
DFS Value Plays
San Francisco 49ers - D/ST, $5,000 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 17.66 targets, 29 sacks, seven interceptions, three fumble recoveries, two defensive touchdowns.
- Projected DVOA: -22.22%
If there's any indication by now I'm writing this up, I'll be heavy 49ers on this slate tonight. If you're making a 49ers "stack," you'll want to have the defense in there as well. The 49ers project to an 8.94% sack rate tonight and a projected -26.84% defensive rushing DVOA. With that said, I do like this play a lot more if it's Colt McCoy under center, with the Niners not allowing the Cardinals to lean on the run game while putting consistent pressure on McCoy. I favor them regardless of who plays quarterback for Arizona tonight, but I'll give them a definite boost if it's McCoy.
Kyle Juszczyk - RB, $600 (DK), $5,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: Three rushes, 10 rushing yards, 15 targets, 11 receptions, 153 rushing yards, one touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -8.9% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -4.5% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
Last but not least, I'll finish things up with Kyle Juszczyk. Certainly a dart throw here, but he's just too cheap considering the upside he brings to the table. I mentioned when talking about CMC that the 49ers have a projected 41.47% passing DVOA when targeting running backs, and all we need is one reception that Juszczyk takes into the end zone for him to break the slate.
Other Value Plays: Elijah Mitchell, A.J. Green, Robbie Gould, Matt Prater
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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