RADIO
Welcome to the Week 7 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
We have another four teams on bye in Week 7, and they're ones that have plenty of DFS star power -- the Bills, Rams, Vikings and Eagles. However, there are still no shortage of solid value plays across the board. As customary, we have multiple candidates to consider at each position, including multiple site-specific selections in addition to the standard suggestions.
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Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. KC | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $24
Garoppolo was solid as a Week 6 value recommendation despite the 49ers' surprising upset loss, posting 296 yards with a pair of touchdown passes on his way to 18.9 DK/FD points and 16.9 Yahoo points. The veteran's salaries have mostly held steady, and with a healthy pass-catching corps and likely aggressive game plan awaiting for his Super Bowl LIV rematch with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, he's right back in play in a matchup that's actually been relatively favorable to QBs thus far.
The Chiefs have allowed 266 passing yards per game through six contests, along with 10.8 yards per completion over the last three games. KC has also picked off just one pass while surrendering an NFL-high 15 passing touchdowns, with 12 of those coming in the red zone alongside a 16-for-28, 110-yard tally. The Chiefs surrender the eighth-most plays per game as well (65.5) and carry a No. 28 ranking in Pass Defense DVOA per Football Outsiders, making this an enticing all-around matchup for Garoppolo at his salaries, especially when also factoring in San Fran is projected for over three touchdowns (23 points).
Matt Ryan, IND at TEN | DK: $5,400, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $24
Somewhat lost in the rocky, uneven start the Colts' season has gotten off to is the fact Ryan has already generated a trio of 300-yard passing efforts over his first six games. The veteran has undeniably been at fault for some of Indianapolis' struggles and has experienced atypical problems with ball security in particular, but his salaries remain extremely reasonable and he's already proven capable of overdelivering on them while facing this Titans squad earlier this season.
Ryan racked up 356 yards and a pair of touchdowns versus Tennessee back in Week 4, and he comes in having put up a total of 98 pass attempts in the last pair of contests while displaying improving chemistry with rookie Alec Pierce and talented but oft-injured veteran Parris Campbell, in addition to further cultivating his already strong connection with Michael Pittman II. The Titans shape up as good targets for him again, as Tennessee is allowing an NFL-high 287.6 passing yards per game and a robust 11.8 yards per completion, along with 12 passing TDs in five games. Factoring in the Titans' No. 29 ranking in Pass Defense DVOA and Ryan's increasing confidence in Frank Reich's system, he makes for a viable play across the board whether or not Jonathan Taylor (ankle) makes his return for the game.
ALSO CONSIDER: Derek Carr, LVR vs. HOU | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $28
DK-Only Special: Dak Prescott, DAL vs. DET | $6,700
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Breece Hall, NYJ at DEN | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $24
Any ambiguity about how the Jets' backfield work would be split between Hall and Michael Carter has progressively dissipated, with the rookie taking firm control over the last three games in particular. Hall has boosted his rushing yardage totals from 66 to 97 to 116 over that span, scoring a rushing touchdown in each contest while adding a 6-117 line through the air. The Iowa State product is set for what should be another busy afternoon against a Broncos defense that's been very impressive overall but vulnerable at times to the run while almost completely shutting down the pass.
Denver has surrendered 130.3 rushing yards per game over the last three, as well as 4.7 RB yards per carry overall. The Broncos also sport No. 21 and No. 24 rankings in second-level and open-field yards per carry allowed, respectively, while Hall certainly has the ability to take advantage of those vulnerabilities. Denver also has allowed the fourth-most receptions to running backs yet yielded a minuscule 9.9 yards per reception to receivers, which certainly could lead to more receiving work for Hall, who already has a pair of six-catch efforts on his rookie resume.
Kenneth Walker, SEA at LAC | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $23
Walker is another first-year phenom that's producing with what is now an unquestioned lead-back role following the season-ending lower-leg injuries Rashaad Penny sustained in Week 5 against the Saints. Walker broke off a 69-yard touchdown run in that game as part of an 8-88 line, and he produced 110 total yards (97 rushing, 13 receiving) against the Cardinals in the Week 6 win over Arizona. Walker should have plenty of involvement as both runner and receiver each week, especially against a Chargers team Seattle will likely try to play some keep away with given the potency of its offense.
Los Angeles has yielded 147.3 rushing yards per game over the last three contests, and an NFL-high 5.8 RB yards per carry overall. L.A. has also produced No. 26 and No. 32 rankings in second-level and open-field yards per carry allowed, which is a foreboding sign when facing a back of Walker's breakaway ability and elite 41.0 percent broken-tackle rate. The Seahawks are projected for over three touchdowns in what could be a back-and-forth affair in ideal football weather, and Walker's ability to stay on the field for all three downs if necessary could allow him to pay strong dividends.
ALSO CONSIDER: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. DET | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $20
DK-only Special: Josh Jacobs, LVR vs. HOU | $6,500
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Allen Lazard, GB at WAS | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $20
Despite all of the turmoil surrounding the Packers recently, Lazard remains a high-upside DFS play each week and is now Aaron Rodgers' most trusted target with Randall Cobb (ankle) unavailable for the time being. The third-year wideout scored his fourth touchdown in five games played this season during the Week 6 loss to the Jets, a game in which he put up a 4-76-1 line on nine targets. Lazard is averaging a career-high 14.3 yards per reception and already has six catches of at least 20 yards after producing eight all last season in 15 games, numbers that dovetail nicely with the Commanders' weaknesses against the pass.
Washington checks in surrendering 241.3 passing yards per game at home, but more importantly, an NFL-high 12.1 yards per completion overall. That's helped lead to the Commanders allowing the fifth-most receiving yards (1,132) to receivers while tying for the third-most touchdowns given up to the position (seven). Lazard has averaged just over a red-zone target per game over his first five contests, and his 13.8-yard aDOT and 94 air yards per contest make this a matchup where the pieces fit well together for a strong showing.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. KC | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $17
Aiyuk was on the receiving end of Garoppolo's aforementioned pair of touchdown tosses in Week 6 against the Falcons, and he certainly has the talent to stay hot in Sunday's showdown with the Chiefs. The 2020 first-round pick saw a season-high 11 targets in that contest, but he also has a pair of eight-target tallies this season and could be heavily involved again versus a Chiefs team that's faced the seventh-most WR targets and tied with the Steelers for most receiving touchdowns allowed to wideouts (nine).
The Chiefs have also surrendered an NFL-high 12 passing TDs in the red zone, and Aiyuk's strong Week 6 performance could certainly make him a strong candidate to benefit from that trend again in Week 7 if the Niners take to the air when in close. That could well be the case, considering KC has surrendered just a yard per carry on 16 rush attempts inside the 20-yard line. It's also worth noting Aiyuk's 10.2-yard aDOT and 30.6 percent share of the team's air yards are both career highs, while KC has seen a spike in average yards per completion surrendered in the last three games (10.8) compared to its seasonal figure (9.4).
Michael Gallup, DAL vs. DET | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $17
Gallup now has three games under his belt following his return from last January's ACL injury, and he encouragingly played a season-high 50 snaps in the Week 6 loss to the Eagles. However, the speedster has yet to have an opportunity to play with Dak Prescott this season due to the latter's Week 1 thumb injury, but that's due to change in this highly favorable matchup. Gallup has naturally enjoyed plenty of success with Prescott in the past, and his downfield route tree profiles very well against a Lions squad that's allowed plenty of chunk plays through the air.
Detroit is surrendering 11.7 yards per completion and 13.6 yards per catch to wide receivers specifically, and Gallup's 11.3-yard aDOT is already high and poised to only rise with Prescott's return. Gallup has encouragingly seen his target count rise in each of his games thus far -- 3/5/7 -- and with CeeDee Lamb dealing with a nagging hip issue, he could be significantly involved in a game that sees the Cowboys carrying the highest implied team total of the slate (28 points) versus a Lions squad surrendering an NFC-high 66 plays per game.
ALSO CONSIDER: Parris Campbell, IND at TEN | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $12
Yahoo-only Special: Tee Higgins, CIN vs. ATL | $21
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Kyle Pitts, ATL at CIN | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $16
The combination of Pitts' underwhelming start to the season, which has included one absence, has made him a bit of a forgotten man in DFS circles and certainly helped depress his salaries. That's a tantalizing combination for our purposes and makes him an especially intriguing Week 7 play in a matchup that should play up to his strengths and give him a chance to overdeliver on the modest investment required to roster him. The Bengals have funneled plenty of action to tight ends, facing the fourth-most targets to the position (49), which has led to a 35-390-1 line.
Cincinnati has surrendered the fifth-highest yards per completion of any team on its home field as well (11.3), a nice bonus against a player of Pitts' downfield prowess that's enumerated by his 13.7-yard aDOT, 13.0 yards per reception and three catches of at least 20 yards (out of 13 total receptions overall). Pitts is still likely building chemistry with Marcus Mariota, but he does already have eight- and seven-target games on his resume and could well be heavily involved in this week's game plan considering Cincy is yielding an extremely stingy 57.3 percent catch rate to wide receivers.
Evan Engram, JAC vs. NYG | DK: $3,300, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $12
Engram has emerged in the Jaguars' passing attack over the last two games, putting together an 11-109 line on 16 targets during that span. The veteran is now drawing a solid 16 percent of Jacksonville's targets, and he finds himself in a favorable matchup against a team he should have no trouble getting up for, his old Giants squad. New York comes in having given up above-average production to tight ends, surrendering the fourth-most catches (35) and seventh-most receiving yards (355) to the position.
Engram should also indirectly benefit of the G-Men's elite ability to limit wide receiver production, as that could send a few extra targets his way. New York is conceding a tiny 54.2 percent catch rate to receivers, leading to an NFC-low 58 catches surrendered to the position. In contrast, tight ends have a 71.4 percent catch rate against the Giants, while Engram is successfully securing 75 percent of his 5.3 targets per game and has seen a pass go his way on an encouraging 27.6 percent of his routes the last pair of contests.
ALSO CONSIDER: Hayden Hurst, CIN vs. ATL | DK: $3,500, FD: $4,900, Yahoo: $17
DK/Yahoo-only Special: George Kittle, SF vs. KC | DK: $5,300, Yahoo: $18
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