Finding Tight End Breakouts for Fantasy Football – Cracking the Code for Week 7

October 21, 2022

Robert looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 7 (2022). He uses advanced NFL stats for tight ends to find breakouts and fades.

Tight end is a dreadful, empty position and because of that, I understand – to some extent – the appeal and rush to get Taysom Hill on your fantasy rosters after his Week 5 explosion. However, as appealing as those boom weeks are, the reality is he’s simply not playing enough. We touched on that in last week’s article and all of those red flags revealed themselves this past week when he put up just 4.7 half-PPR points.

We’ll touch on Hill a little bit more in-depth later, but this is the nature of the beast. The tight end position is filled with the lowest of lows and a few moderately high points, unless you’re one of the few lucky ones to roster Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce.

However, this week we have some interesting names to talk about, including not one, not two, but three (!!!) rookies. It’s almost unheard of from this position, but there are three rookie tight ends on which fantasy managers need to keep their eyes on, so let’s get to it. As always, if you got any fantasy football questions, give me a follow on Twitter @RobFFSlayer. My DMs are always open to talk football.

Kyle Pitts Is Back, Right?!

That is such a complicated question and the answer most likely isn’t what fantasy managers want to hear. But hey!!! Kyle Pitts scored his first NFL touchdown on US soil, so that’s something that’s pretty cool. It took him 22 games to score a touchdown in the United States.

Pitts, unfortunately, despite the first United States touchdown, is in the same place he was last week. He’s still the same incredibly talented and gifted tight end whose underlining efficiency metrics absolutely jump off the page and who is getting nowhere close to the kind of volume his talent deserves.

Through six weeks, Pitts has the third highest target share among tight ends at 22.9%, yet his targets per game sit at just 17th. His targets per route run are second among tight ends with at least 20 targets at 25%. His 5 targets per game rank just 17th in the NFL. Just absolutely not getting the volume he deserves.

His yards per route run is 6th best among tight ends. He’s receiving just 5 targets per game, which ranks 17th. His average depth of target is the best at the position, sitting at 14.6. Fantasy managers want players in that 10-13 range because it indicates they’re being used down the field, but not quite far enough that the catch rate begins to decline. There’s a happy medium to this statistic. While Pitts is absolutely being used down the field, it’s almost too much, too often. It’s creating a lot of volatility on the few targets he is getting. It would be best for Pitts and fantasy managers alike if his average depth of target decreased a bit.

However, despite getting just 5 targets per game, which again, is 17th among tight ends, Pitts is second in air yards per game at 72.8. He’s averaging more air yards per game than Travis Kelce who averages 3.8 more targets per game.

Updated pass rate over expectation leaders through Week 6 with MNF included https://t.co/2flx2InIWz pic.twitter.com/dPt1eK5DNf

— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) October 18, 2022

The problem is the Falcons are refusing to pass the ball. At all. As you can see from the tweet above, the Falcons are getting dangerously close to the Chicago Bears. Pitts is currently 24th in routes run per game among tight ends with just 20. That’s the same number as Kylen Granson of the Indianapolis Colts.

With just 20 routes per game and 5 targets per game, it doesn’t matter how talented he is, his fantasy production is going to be extremely underwhelming and the floor much closer to 0 than fantasy managers would like to admit to themselves.

We Want… Rookie Tight Ends?

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Fantasy managers have been conditioned to ignore rookie tight ends completely. The lesson has been a good one – it’s almost always correct. The fact that we’re about to talk about three rookie tight ends is very abnormal and while these guys aren’t yet weekly starters, they’re starting to creep into the streaming category and there’s some upside with each one, albeit for different reasons.

In Week 5, Cameron Brate was inactive clearing the way for Cade Otton to get the start. Remember when they signed Kyle Rudolph in the offseason? It wasn’t him Rudolph who filled in for Brate – it was Otton and get this… Cade Otton actually played the most snaps of any skilled position player for the Buccaneers in Week 5.

He played 74 of the team’s 79 snaps according to PFF. The next closest was Mike Evans with 67. That isn’t enough to get on our fantasy radars, however. Brate was playing that much before and no one dared put him into their lineups, but a few things have changed since the early part of the season.

#Buccaneers Pass Rate Over Expected ...

Week 1: -5%
Week 2: -3%
Week 3: +4%
Week 4: +16%
Week 5: +18%
Week 6: -2% pic.twitter.com/UJAccXbNDx

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 18, 2022

For starters, the Buccaneers are passing the ball a lot more. You can see from the tweet above, over the last three weeks Tampa Bay has passed the ball at a much higher rate. In fact, check this out… in Weeks 1-3, Brady had 103 pass attempts and in Weeks 4-6, he had 144. That’s a difference of 13-14 pass attempts per week. There’s a reason for that change. Chris Godwin and Russell Gage are fully healthy.

Back to that Week 5 game, Otton actually ran the most routes among all Buccaneer players, as well. He ran 46 routes on Brady’s 52 dropbacks. That is an absolutely elite 88.5% rate. He also earned seven targets.

Brate ended up returning in Week 6, but in a scary and unfortunate situation, injured his neck and had to leave the game on a stretcher. His estimated return date is unknown. Once Brate left the game, Otton again operated as the primary tight end for the Buccaneers. He finished with 17 routes run and 3 targets.

Through the last two games, he has 10 targets, 8 receptions, and 66 yards, which isn’t anything to go crazy over, but if he continues operating as the primary tight end during Brate’s absence, he’s going to be good for 5-8 targets per game. Especially if the Buccaneers keep passing it 48 times per game, as they’ve done over the last three weeks.

For as long as Brate remains out, Otton is officially on the streaming radar and it’s possible Otton doesn’t give the job back to Brate. If you’re in a tight end premium league or a league that requires two starting tight ends, he’s someone to pay attention to.

Daniel Bellinger, New York Giants

Daniel Bellinger is likely to be on people’s radars already after his Week 6 performance. Unfortunately, there tends to be a lot of touchdown chasing out there, especially at the tight end position. The question becomes can Bellinger’s utilization explain the increase in production from last week? If the answer is yes, he’s someone we should be chasing. If the answer’s no, we should largely ignore it as an outlier performance. Talking to you, Taysom Hill.

Okay, back to Bellinger. Yes, his utilization metrics can absolutely explain why he had the best game of his career so far. The rookie tight end didn’t play Week 1, but from Weeks 2-4, his snap share consistently stayed between 56-60%. That’s simply not enough playing time to matter for fantasy purposes at tight end.

In Week 5, that number jumped up to 70.5%, but his route run participation didn’t climb with the increased playing time. In Week 2, he had a 44.2% route participation rate. That number stayed mostly the same in Week 3, climbing ever so slightly to 46.9%. In Week 5, he ran a route on 54.8% of the team’s dropbacks, which demonstrated an increase from his previous weeks, but the increase didn’t line up with his increase in playing time.

However, in Week 6, fantasy managers finally got the best of both worlds. His route participation rate jumped to 81.2%, which is an elite level. This coincided with a complete take-over of the tight end position – he finished with a 93.7% snap share. This is what we’re looking for – increased production explained by increased opportunity.

Most yards per route run for TEs

1. Mark Andrews 2.32
2. Travis Kelce 2.08
3. David Njoku 1.96
4. Dallas Goedert 1.86
5. Pat Freiermuth 1.84
6. T.J. Hockenson 1.71
7. Kyle Pitts 1.67
8. Robert Tonyan 1.60
9. George Kittle 1.53
10. Tyler Higbee 1.46
11. Daniel Bellinger 1.39 👀👀

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 19, 2022

He finished with a 20% target share in Week 6, which is tied for his highest weekly output of the season. He now has three weeks with a target share north of 15%. With the insanely depleted receiver group in New York, if Bellinger continues playing 90% of the snaps and running a route on 80% of the team’s dropbacks, he’s going to quickly climb the weekly tight end ranks.

That kind of utilization with the complete lack of talented pass-catchers in New York could lead to Bellinger being a mid-TE2 the rest of the way. Unfortunately, the poor offense caps his ceiling quite a bit because fantasy managers cannot count on too many touchdowns, but he should maintain a consistent weekly role in the passing game.

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos

Welcome to the NFL, young fella! What a performance for his first time on the big stage. His utilization metrics were something that jumps off the page for fantasy purposes. Even before we get there, we need to remember this new regime drafted Greg Dulcich.  They didn’t draft Albert Okwuegbunam and that matters. As far as fantasy scoring at tight end, the other thing matters is their RAS score. There has shown to be a lot of positive correlation between fantasy-producing tight ends and higher RAS scores and well…

Greg Dulcich was drafted with pick 80 of round 3 in the 2022 draft class. He scored a 8.25 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 178 out of 1014 TE from 1987 to 2022. https://t.co/SdTVqjxzNG #RAS #Broncos pic.twitter.com/ZSxPIzyWov

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 30, 2022

So, fantasy managers got that going for them, but to be fair so did Albert O and we all saw how that played out. It clearly isn’t the end all, be all. You still need to be given the opportunity and that’s where fantasy managers should really get excited about Dulcich.

In Dulcich’s first week back, he had a higher route run percentage than any Denver Bronco has had all season and truthfully, we could really end it right there. Despite being a rookie, who missed the first five weeks of the season, the coaching staff had Dulcich run a route at a higher rate than they’ve allowed any other tight end all season. Think about that. That’s wheels up right there.

Greg Dulcich's behind-the-scenes usage was just as impressive as his production in his 1st game:

🔸Ran 81% of routes
🔸Lined up at WR for 61% of snaps
🔸Didn't pass block once
🔸Robust 12 yard aDot

All good things.

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) October 18, 2022

Dulcich played 71% of the snaps this past weekend, with no other tight end playing more than 28%. According to PFF, Dulcich ran a route on 27 of Wilson’s 34 dropbacks. No other tight end ran more than 5. He only had 3 targets, but we’re chasing opportunity and Dulcich got it and it’s not unreasonable to expect his role to grow.

The Broncos, for the most part, funnel their passing game through Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. However, there really isn’t a third option in the passing game with the injuries to Tim Patrick and Javonte Williams. Dulcich will likely slot in as Wilson’s No. 3 target on a weekly basis.

However, Sutton and Jeudy are not so good that there won’t be weeks where Dulcich is No. 2 or even No. 2 on the target hierarchy on any given week. His utilization, draft pedigree, RAS score, and immediate production make him a priority for any fantasy manager hurting at tight end. He could very well be a high-end TE2 for the rest of the season.

What Are We Doing With…

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers

Through six weeks, Gerald Everett is the TE8 in half-PPR scoring with a 7.9 PPG average. However, Everett has benefited from star receiver, Keenan Allen’s absence. Allen injured his hamstring early in Week 1 and has not played since. Why is that important?

Allen had an average depth of target of just 8.9 yards in 2021. In 2020, it was even lower, at 7.4. Everett’s current average depth of target is at 6.8 for the 2022 season. Are we starting to connect the dots? Everett is fifth in overall targets at the tight end position with 35 and has posted a very healthy 15.1% target share.

Allen is scheduled to return in Week 7, which is going to have a negative effect on the amount Everett receives on a weekly basis. That’s a big concern within itself, but there is another factor fantasy managers need to be aware of.

Everett has a route run participation rate of just 66.5%. That’s below the 70% cut-off we typically have for fantasy-relevant tight ends. Everett has been able to survive on that number because of the absence of Allen and because the Chargers are averaging the most pass attempts per game through six weeks.

The other moving piece that needs to be factored in is the return of fellow tight end, Donald Parham. While he did leave Week 6 with a concussion and could miss time because of that, Everett’s route run participation rate was just 60.6% this past weekend.

While Everett has earned most of the receiving volume at tight end, the Chargers use a committee approach to the tight end position. Everett has just one week this season where he’s played 69% of the snaps and in Week 6, he had his lowest snap rate all season at just 55.2%.

The team volume will continue to benefit Everett as the season goes along and it’s what will likely keep him afloat for fantasy managers. However, based on his route run, Allen’s return, and eventually, Parhams’ return, expecting him to continue to provide mid-TE1 numbers is too optimistic. He’s best viewed as a high-end TE2 moving forward.

Everett could be considered a sell-high candidate if you were able to snag him off the waiver wire early and have another competent tight end. His current value is likely the highest it will be all season.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

You’re probably wondering how long you’re going to have to keep hearing about Evan Engram, am I right? Like give it up already, but that’s just not going to happen because like it or not, the dude is getting volume. He has three weeks with 7 or more targets.

He currently sits at sixth among tight ends in total targets and for you PPR players, he has the eighth receptions. If you’re playing in a standard league, you can pretty much ignore Engram and if you’re in a half-PPR, he even needs to be downgraded a touch. He has just two red zone targets on the season, which tells us we shouldn’t expect too many touchdowns in the near future.

However, Engram is playing 74.2% of the Jaguars’ total snaps and is running a route on 81.4% of the team’s dropbacks. His route participation rate ranks seventh-best among tight ends, which displays just how much opportunity he is getting inside this offense.

In a different simulation, would Evan Engram be a TE1?

79%-plus route participation every week.

22% and 26% target shares in the last two games.

Historically, those numbers make it very hard to not be a top-12 option at TE.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 16, 2022

Over the last two weeks, Engram has seen his usage climb even more. He’s averaged 8.5 targets per game, which was the fourth-highest during that span. He earned a 25.4% target share and racked up 11 receptions.

He’s not an exciting option and his ceiling is significantly capped without better scoring usage, but if you’re in a full-PPR league, Engram has climbed the ranks to mid-TE2 status. However, despite the promising utilization over the past two weeks, fantasy managers shouldn’t keep their expectations held in check.

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints

In Week 5, Taysom Hill accounted for four total touchdowns and 134 total yards. Absolute smash play in Week 6, right? Not exactly. There were absolutely zero underlining metrics fantasy managers could point to in order to sell themselves on the fact that his Week 5 performance was repeatable.

Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Jarvis Landry were all out yesterday.

Taysom Hill still only played on 15-of-72 snaps. Had 11 at QB, 4 out wide. Finished with 4.54 DraftKings points.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 17, 2022

Hill has 5 total red zone carries, 3 carries inside the 10-yard and 1 carry inside the 5-yard line. Despite this limited usage, he still has 5 rushing touchdowns on the season. He has the same number of red zone carries as quarterbacks Joe Burrow, Jacoby Brissett, and Baker Mayfield, and backup running backs Kenneth Gainwell, Joshua Kelley, and Alexander Mattison.

He has scored a touchdown on 19.2% of his carries. Nick Chubb, who leads the league in rushing touchdowns has scored a touchdown on 6.3% of his carries. Jamaal Williams and Jalen Hurts are second with six rushing touchdowns and they've each done it on 77 attempts – 7.8%. What I'm trying to say is that Hill's touchdown rate is completely and utterly unsustainable. Especially when you consider that he's averaging just 5.2 carries per game.

In five active games, Hill has never played more than 25 snaps in a single contest. He's never played more than 30% of the team's snaps on any given week. He has run 18 total routes all year. Remember earlier when we were talking about Kyle Pitts and his unacceptable utilization? Remember that he was averaging 20 routes run per game? Well, Hill has run 18 all year. He has one single target, which he caught for two yards.

Due to the lack of quality options and upside across the tight end position, you can't completely write Hill off, but his utilization doesn't exactly look like a guy who is going to continue scoring touchdowns at a higher expected rate. If you're playing Hill, you're playing with fire. Depending on who your other options are, you might be playing with fire regardless and at least Hill has those boom weeks in his range of outcomes, just know that based on his utilization and snap counts, he's a lot more likely to disappoint you.

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

Robert Tonyan just had one of the best games of his career in Week 6. He had 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 90 yards. Now before we go chasing yesterday's points, is there something that happened in Week 6 that was different from Weeks 1–5 that could tell us Week 6 might be something that could continue?

From Weeks 1–5, Tonyan played four games with a snap share of lower than 45%. He maxed out at 58% of the snaps played in Week 3. In Week 6, however, he played 64% of the snaps. His snap share average from the first five weeks was 44.2%, so we're talking about a 20% snap share increase. That's a good sign, it's something we can tangibly point to as to why Tonyan had the best game of his 2022 season, but are there any other signs?

Robert Tonyan routes per dropback rate by week:

1. 50%
2. 48%
3. 64%
4. 59%
5. 54%
6. 82%

29 of Tonyan's 46 snaps yesterday were slot or wide. Team-high 12 targets for a 29% share.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 17, 2022

Now that's what we want to see! Fantasy managers can easily explain why Tonyan had his most successful game. His routes per dropback rate were 18% higher than his highest rate from Weeks 1–5. In those first five weeks of the season, Tonyan's route participation rate was 53%, an increase of 19%. With Randall Cobb set to miss the next 2–4 weeks, there being talk of shutting Christian Watson down, and Sammy Watkins' availability for Week 7 up in the air, Tonyan all of a sudden starts looking like a very good start.

If his snap share and route run participation rate stays as high as it was in Week 6, Tonyan will find himself as a top-12 tight end option moving forward. If he was cut due to his early season struggles and you're constantly looking for a new tight end, you should consider picking him up. He could very well be a long-term option if his Week 6 utilization continues.

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