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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/19/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Wednesday RotoBallers, it's Championship Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, October 19, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 10-4-2 (+3.65 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Padres
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SD -118
PHI: Aaron Nola | SD: Blake Snell
We were able to come away with another fantastic day yesterday, going 2-0 and locking up 1.6 units. We'll run it back with two more plays today, starting out in San Diego for a first-inning under.
The visiting Phillies will send Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) to the mound. Nola has been excellent this postseason, winning each of his two starts without allowing a run. He was pretty darn good in the first inning throughout the entire 2022 campaign as well, allowing a run in just two of 15 starts on the road and in just four of 31 starts overall. He threw a perfect first inning against the Padres back on June 24th, where he allowed just one run across seven innings.
Conversely, the Padres will send Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA) to the mound. While Snell has been as good as Nola throughout his first two starts of the postseason, he's still been pretty good bringing in a 1-0 record with a 3.12 ERA. Snell has been as good in the first inning as Nola in 2022, allowing a run in two of his 15 starts at home and in just three of 24 starts overall. Snell made two starts against the Phillies this season, allowing a first-inning tally in one of them, though that start was in Philadelphia, not San Diego.
FanDuel Sportsbook has this line pretty close to my model, with the first inning under at -142. My model gives the first inning under a 59.01% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -144. While there isn't a ton of value here, it's good enough for me to give the green light and run this play this afternoon.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Astros
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: HOU -190
NYY: Jameson Taillon | HOU: Justin Verlander
I'll head out down to Houston for the second play of the day. Day after day for what seems the past week, I've been taking the Yankees' first five money lines, but today, we'll take a look at the other side of things, taking the Astros' F5 run line.
The visiting Yankees will be sending Jameson Taillon (14-5, 3.91 ERA) to the mound. Taillon struggled mightily in his only start against Houston this season, tossing 5.2 innings while allowing 10 hits and six runs, as well as surrendering two homers. While he projects better than that today, it isn't by much. My model projects him to a 3.86 xFIP and 31.5% hard contact rate.
I'll be backing Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) and the Astros tonight. Verlander struggled in his first start of the postseason, allowing six runs on 10 hits. He pitched well against the Yankees in his lone start against them back on June 24th, tossing seven strong innings allowing just four hits and one run. He projects to a 3.15 xFIP and 28.22% hard contact rate this evening.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us solid value on the Astros F5 -0.5, at -130 odds. The Yankees took care of business yesterday but now had to travel overnight down to Houston in preparation for tonight's game. The Astros are well rested, and while they might come out rusty at first, I expect them to take care of business and make it a long day for Taillon and the Yanks.
Pick: Astros F5 -0.5 (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Friday!
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