WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Week 7

October 23, 2022

Andrew analyzes key fantasy football WR/CB matchups through his cornerback ratings chart to find top wide receivers to target or avoid in Week 7 (2022).

Welcome to Week 7 of the WR/CB Matchup chart. As the year goes on, the PPGA metric will become more and more predictive.

Another important data point to be aware of is the injury report. Defenses missing key secondary pieces are far more susceptible to giving up ceiling games than units that are healthy. Offensive coaches will always look to take advantage of backup players forced into action. Players dealing with an injury are listed in red on the chart, and checking statuses of players prior to kickoff is advised. There's a reason NFL teams are required to put out an injury report each week, as it directly impacts Vegas lines.

The process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquil Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.

Keep in mind that NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. For example, in Week 1, A.J. Brown played 27 snaps in the slot and 21 snaps at LWR. However, Quez Watkins played more snaps in the slot and no Eagles' WR played more snaps at LWR than Brown, which explains the chart.

The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.

The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.

The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.

Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 7

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WR/CB Matchups to Target

Brandon Aiyuk was dynamic against the Falcons last week, and this week gets the easiest on-paper matchup in the league for LWRs. Keep an eye on injury reports, because if Rashad Fenton is out again, the Chiefs will likely be forced to start Joshua Williams, who was frequently toasted last week against the Bills. Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are in smash spots regardless.

The Steelers are unbelievably banged up in the secondary and have given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing WRs even with healthy DBs. It's a dream matchup for Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.

Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce produced against a porous Jaguars pass defense, and this week get the Titans, who have been among the easiest WR matchups in the league thus far. Tennessee has given up the second most FPPG to opposing LWRs, which is good news for Pittman in particular. Keep in mind that Pierce plays both LWR and RWR and Pittman gets a lot of slot snaps.

Be sure to check the status of Falcons stud corner A.J. Terrell. If he's out, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have amazing matchups. Even if he's in, the Bengals' pass rate increased last week, and that should continue this week. Tyler Boyd also has an easy matchup in the slot.

Another injury to keep an eye on is Marshon Lattimore of the Saints. If he's out, DeAndre Hopkins gets a bump in his first game back. Even if Lattimore plays, the Saints are fresh off giving up a monster performance to Ja'Marr Chase. The Arizona offense has been a mess, but Hopkins could help get them back on track.

The Panthers are barely a professional football team right now, and it's probably only a matter of time before the defense starts to give less effort. Three of their best corners are dealing with injuries, so it's a good spot for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Obviously, Dak Prescott returning would be huge for CeeDee Lamb's outlook, but the Cowboys' No. 1 target has an easy matchup regardless. Detroit has given up the 8th most FPPG to opposing slots this year.

Davante Adams pushed his way into the end zone twice two weeks ago against the Chiefs, and this week gets the Texans, who have given up the third most FPPG to opposing WR1s this year. Derek Stingley Jr. will likely improve, but for now, it's a matchup upgrade for Adams.

WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade

Drake London hasn't done much in recent weeks, and this week gets a tough matchup against Chidobe Awuzie. The Bengals have given up the fewest FPPG to opposing WR1s this season.

The Colts' pass defense has been solid all year. It's not good news for the Titans WRs, who are all fringe fantasy assets anyway. I wouldn't advise starting Robert Woods if you have other options.

The Jets are winning, but Zach Wilson does not look like a very fantasy-friendly QB for his WRs. With a matchup against arguably the toughest pass defense in the league, I would temper expectations for Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson.

On the other side of that game, the Broncos WRs will also have to deal with a tough secondary. It's quite possible Courtland Sutton gets lost in the Sauce this week. Jerry Jeudy also gets a downgrade.

Starting Houston receivers hasn't been exciting, but if you have to consider them, be aware that the Raiders' secondary has been solid at limiting opposing WR fantasy production. Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks get downgrades, but it's possible Cooks takes advantage of some easier matchups in the slot.

Adoree Jackson has been dominant against RWRs so far this year, giving up the fewest FPPG to his matchups so far. If Marvin Jones Jr. plays, he would not be an advisable start.

Hunter Renfrow took advantage of less target competition last year but hasn't done much so far in 2022. He gets a matchup downgrade this week against Desmond King.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week.

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