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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Chargers vs Chiefs showdown slate on 9/15. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's so nice that football is back, and we're back at it again with some Week 2 Thursday Night Football DFS lineups. We have one of the more fun matchups on a Thursday night, as the Chargers head into Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. It should be electric, high-scoring matchup in this one, so let's get right to it.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chargers vs. Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on September 15th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $17,700 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 360 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, zero interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 77.1% (2nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -42.4% (3rd), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off on this slate with Patrick Mahomes. There were a few question marks regarding Mahomes coming into this season, but he left little to no doubt on Sunday as he torched the Cardinals' defense for 360 yards and five touchdowns. He seemed to have not missed a step in the absence of Tyreek Hill, spreading the ball around to multiple receivers, as well as Travis Kelce, and I expect him to do more of the same in this one.
Josh Palmer - WR, $7,500 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 4 targets, 3 receptions, five receiving yards.
- Week 1 Data: 12.5% target rate, 20% red zone target rate.
- Individual Matchup (vs L'Jarius Sneed): 18% targets per route, 67% catch rate, 0.19 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
A bit of a cheaper value captain player here specifically for DraftKings. It's been confirmed that Keenan Allen will be OUT for this game dealing with a hamstring issue. This should open up the door for Palmer, who only saw four targets Sunday afternoon despite Allen leaving the game. While the Chargers didn't have a full week to prepare, I imagine that it'll be more than enough time to get Palmer involved in the offense, and I believe he's primed for a big outing on the national stage.
Other Captains/MVPs: Justin Herbert, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce, Austin Ekeler
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DFS Flex Plays
Justin Herbert - QB, $11,200 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 279 passing yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 60.6% (5th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 11.6% (21st), per Football Outsiders.
You could make the argument that Justin Herbert is the better option at the Captain/MVP spot in this one, and I'm surely going to have some shares of him there as well. Herbert carved up the Las Vegas defense on Sunday, even after losing Keenan Allen. He's in a prime spot here and in my opinion, I think it would be wise to stack both quarterbacks in most of your lineups on tonight's slate, as I believe it'll be a high-scoring contest.
Juju Smith-Schuster - WR, $8,000 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: Eight targets, six receptions, 79 receiving yards.
- Week 1 Data: 21.05% target rate, 8.33% red-zone target rate.
- Individual Matchup (vs Bryce Callahan): 21% targets per route, 43% catch rate, 0.15 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
A lot of eyes were on Juju on Sunday and how he along with MVS, Mecole Hardman, etc. would compensate for the loss of Tyreek Hill in KC. Juju delivered, hauling six of his eight targets for 79 yards in his Chiefs debut. He didn't score in Week 1, despite Patrick Mahomes tossing five of them, but I can see that tide turning tonight as it's just a matter of time he finds the end zone. He's cheap enough to fit with both QBs, and I'll be heavy on him tonight as he's in a relatively favorable matchup against Bryce Callahan tonight.
Other Flex Options: Mike Williams, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
DFS Value Plays
Marquez Valdez-Scantling - WR, $6,400 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: Four targets, four receptions, 44 receiving yards.
- Week 1 Data: 10.53% target rate, 8.33% red zone target rate.
- Individual Matchup (vs Michael Davis): 7% targets per route, 67% catch rate, 0.13 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
We just talked about "WR1" in KC, now we'll take a look at "WR2", Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Scantling finished with a perfect 100% catch rate on Sunday, catching each of his four targets. While the matchup against Michael Davis isn't the greatest in terms of targets per route and catch rate, MVS should move around the field enough and it's hard not to expect Andy Reid to scheme up a play or two for him to get behind the defense and haul in a touchdown.
Gerald Everett - TE, $4,800 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: Four targets, three receptions, 54 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Week 1 Data: 12.5% target rate, 40% red zone target rate.
- Individual Matchup (vs Willie Gay Jr.): 14% targets per route, 100% catch rate, 0.32 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
While he'll without a doubt be the lesser-owned tight end in this matchup, Everett isn't far behind in terms of matchup upside here. This slate will be a difficult one to pinpoint, and I would recommend spreading ownership out amongst all pass-catchers in both offenses, but Everett proves to be a solid value play on this slate. He hauled in three of his four targets on Sunday, including a touchdown, but what's most interesting is that he saw a whopping 40% target rate in the end zone. Should he catch another in this one you'll be in a premium spot to take home some money.
Other Value Plays: Matt Ammendola, Dustin Hopkins, Skyy Moore, Josh Kelly
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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