RADIO
Welcome to the Week 1 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
Week 1 usually offers a lot of mispricings, whether it's rookies or players who have moved teams and now have larger roles in their new offenses. There are a lot of mispriced players on each site this week, so finding the right value plays will be more important than ever.
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Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Matt Ryan, IND at HOU | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $26
There are naturally going to be plenty of folks jumping on Jonathan Taylor in tournaments given last season's overall body of work and the fact he eviscerated the Texans for 288 rushing yards and four touchdowns across two games during the campaign. Consequently, that makes Ryan and at least one of his pass catchers a very intriguing leverage play in GPPs against a Houston defense that allowed 251.8 passing yards per game at home in 2021 and 27 touchdown passes overall. The Texans also gave up a co-NFL-high 6.2 yards per play at home a season ago, along with a 66.6 percent completion rate. Finally, consider the Texans also tied for the third-highest explosive pass play rate conceded overall in 2021 (10%), furthering Ryan's case at modest salaries.
Jameis Winston, NO at ATL | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $25
Winston appears to be back to full strength after last season's ACL tear, even getting some action in the final preseason game and looking sharp while going 4-for-4 for 59 yards. While working without the players that will serve as his top three targets to open this season -- Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry -- Winston still put together a 14:3 TD: INT across six-plus games before his injury last season, adding a 32-166-1 line on the ground. The Falcons gave up an NFL-high 71.6 percent completion rate at home last season and also ranked in the bottom half of the league with 7.0 yards per attempt surrendered there, while their NFL-low 17 sacks also helped facilitate plenty of time in the pocket, something of particular benefit to a turnover-conscious signal-caller like Winston.
ALSO CONSIDER: Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. NYG | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $20
Running Back DFS Value Plays
D'Andre Swift, DET vs. PHI | DK: $6,800, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $24
Swift particularly saw a big boost in production as a receiver last season, generating an impressive 62-452-2 tally through the air over 13 games while building chemistry with then-new QB Jared Goff. The Lions' offense got a much-needed talent infusion this offseason at receiver, and even with first-round pick Jameson Williams (knee) not ready to start the season, new downfield threat DJ Chark and surging second-year wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown should help earn some respect from opposing defenses given their prior body of work. The Eagles also made for a great matchup for pass-catching backs last season, giving up the third-most receptions (116) to the position, along with the eighth-most passing yards (719). Philly also ranked No. 22 in second-level yards per carry allowed (1.27), while Swift generated an impressive 13.9 percent broken-tackle rate last season.
Elijah Mitchell, SF at CHI | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $19
Mitchell sat out the last few weeks of training camp and preseason with a hamstring issue, but he jumped back into practice August 28th and appears primed to suit up in Week 1. Considering how impressive Mitchell was as both runner and receiver while battling multiple injuries last season, he's not likely to be at these salaries for very long into the season as long as good health prevails. The Bears were particularly vulnerable against the run last season, even at Soldier Field, where they allowed 126.4 rushing yards per game. Chicago also gave up 4.51 RB yards per carry overall, a figure that included a No. 26 ranking in second-level yards per carry (1.29) and explosive rush play rate (12%) allowed, which could certainly benefit a player with Mitchell's speed.
ALSO CONSIDER: A.J. Dillon, GB at MIN | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $18
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Hunter Renfrow, LV at LAC | DK: $5,800, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $18
Renfrow is arguably just a tad overshadowed on his own team with the blockbuster offseason acquisition of Davante Adams, and the expectation is the elite wideout will immediately reignite his college chemistry with Derek Carr. However, it's Renfrow who naturally has much more recent history with Carr, and the fourth-year wideout is also coming off a career-best 103-1,038-9 line last season. Renfrow recorded three touchdown grabs on 10 catches in two games against the Chargers in 2021, and Los Angeles allowed its two highest passer ratings in the short left and short left passing windows, areas of the field where Renfrow produced a 71-627-3 line in 2021.
Michael Pittman Jr., IND at HOU | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $23
Building on what was written about Ryan earlier, Pittman is an excellent value option to pair him with if you're indeed leaning toward going contrarian with your Colts builds in tournaments. The clear-cut No. 1 wideout got plenty of work in with his new quarterback this summer, and he should be busy in Week 1 against a Texans defense he posted 110 total yards against on eight total touches last time he saw Houston in Week 13 of last season. The Texans also gave up 20 touchdowns in the three short passing windows last season, areas of the field where Pittman recorded 74 receptions and four touchdowns.
DeVonta Smith , PHI at DET | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $16
Much like in Renfrow's situation, Smith, despite his ample talent, is a tad under the radar with all the hoopla surrounding Philly's own major offseason acquisition at receiver, A.J. Brown. However, Smith has a year head start on Brown in terms of working with Jalen Hurts, and the second-year speedster should naturally benefit immensely from the attention defenses will be forced to bestow on his new position mate. Smith brings no shortage of big-play upside and recorded 16 receptions of at least 20 yards last season, while Detroit yielded an NFL-high 12.4 yards per completion at home and gave up a 29-881-5 line in the deep left and deep middle passing windows in 2021. With the Eagles boasting the fourth-highest projected team total of the Sunday slates as of early Tuesday (26.3) and Smith's downfield chops, he makes for an intriguing value option.
ALSO CONSIDER: Adam Thielen, MIN vs. GB | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $19; Chris Olave, NO at ATL | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $15
Tight End DFS Value Plays
T.J. Hockenson, DET vs. PHI | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $19
The Eagles-Lions game has a solid amount of shootout potential -- the projected 48.5-point total is the highest of the early window -- and both teams' tight ends could well be heavily involved. Hockenson certainly was in last season's meeting with Philadelphia, posting a 10-89-1 line on 11 targets in that contest. The fourth-year pro was targeted on an impressive 23.0 percent of his routes run last season as well, and with a year of rapport with Goff under his belt and the Eagles having surrendered an NFL-high 107 receptions and 14 touchdowns to tight ends last season, Hockenson is worthy of consideration in a game that could certainly have a favorable environment for offense.
Pat Freiermuth, PIT at CIN | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $15
Freiermuth was a bright spot in what was an up-and-down 2021 season for the Steelers offense, producing a 60-497-7 line across 16 games as a rookie. That included a tally of seven receptions for 62 yards and a pair of scores in two games against the Bengals, which gave up 96 receptions, 1,083 yards, and eight TDs to tight ends during the regular season. Freiermuth has displayed good chemistry with projected starter Mitch Trubisky by all accounts this summer, and he appears poised to start off the season hot after a productive preseason where he generated a 5-80 line during limited playing time.
ALSO CONSIDER: Dallas Goedert, PHI at DET | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $18
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