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Only 8 games on the docket today, but I am back with my favorite prop bets, sides, and totals with you for tonight's games here at RotoBaller.
Recently, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Monday, July 11th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Max Scherzer o7.5 vs. ATL (+105 DK)
Max had one of the most amazing K performances in recent memory against the Reds in his return from the IL. He whiffed 11 Reds in 6 innings and only needed…79 pitches to do so. That’s some incredible efficiency.
As you can see in the model, I like him for close to 9 strikeouts here. Atlanta can hit, but they also strike out a ton, and targeting them with good pitchers is something I will always do. Jump on this now at plus odds while you can.
Aaron Nola 5.5 vs. STL (-150 DK)
Nola had his first low strikeout game in a while last time out when he whiffed only three Nats over 7.2 frames. You and I weren’t on him as we both know not to target the Nats for strikeouts. But today we get him at a much lower number as a result of that outing and the perceived tough match-up with the Cards. I mean, IT IS a tough match-up for sure, but he’s certainly capable of getting six here today and the Cards’ K rate against RHP is still up there over the recent two-week sample size.
And that’s it. I can’t really make a case for any of these other guys, and I’m going to keep it super simple today. Betting on studs is always a lot more fun than banking on guys with lesser strikeout chops.
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
Only three bets today, so overall a smaller card than usual. But there aren’t as many games to choose from!
TEX -1.5 (+110 DK)
Listen, I know I said I have to be more careful with run lines but the model is going nuts for Texas today. I’m not convinced that Spencer Howard is bad, or that Adrian Martinez is anything other than objectively bad. The Rangers have the advantage everywhere - the starter, the bullpen, and the biggest disparity is the offense where Texas is scoring over 5 runs a game over the last month to Oakland’s measly three runs per contest.
PHI ML (-125 DK)
It’s all about Aaron Nola here, I am a big believer in him and what he’s done this season. Meanwhile, on the other side of this match-up, we have Miles Mikolas who is finally starting to regress after a really awesome start to his year. His SIERA is up around 4, which is where I would expect to see his ERA start to migrate towards in the second half. He’s simply “good but not great” while Nola has the ability to shut down an offense entirely.
CHW ML (-110 DK)
The White Sox have let me down in so many ways this season and in many good spots. But there is a significant disparity in pitching here with a guy like Lance Lynn, even though he hasn’t looked like his usual self, facing off against Cal Quantrill. Chicago is winning at a 55% clip on the road, even with their early-season struggles and I give their lineup a slight advantage over the Guardians as well.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.
I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Have a great weekend and thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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