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Free agency can be a great opportunity for players to find new homes that mesh with their playing styles and help them achieve their potential. It can also be a chance for players to think they're doing that and then wind up in a bad situation where they're unable to find NBA success.
This article is about the former, and while it's only been hours since the market officially opened, we're here to analyze some of the deals that have been confirmed in advance of the 2022-23 season tipoff later this fall.
Let's take a look at some players who changed teams and who should find their stock rising up this season.
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Fantasy Basketball: Winners from 2022-23 Free Agency - Guards
Bones Hyland, PG/SG - Denver Nuggets
It is still early for Bones to get into the starting rotation, and even if he already was a grizzled veteran, that might still be difficult considering Denver brought Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Rockies in the Barton/Morris trade a few days ago. Of course, Jamal Murray is/will be back after dealing with a long-term injury and manning the PG1 role for the whole season. KCP projects as the starting SG, but that doesn't affect Hyland's role as the first guard off the pine in relief. Hyland's rookie season was actually spent that way, as he only started four games of the 69 he played, but the 19 MPG he logged should get a bit of a bump-up next year with both Will Barton and Monte Morris off to Washington and Hyland growing into a higher and more solid position in the depth chart.
Don't go chasing Hyland like a madman because he's not worth losing your head or wasting high draft picks on him. That said, he's a legit top-tier bench player with an average of 1.04 FP/min as a rookie and nearly 20 FPPG in his first season as a pro in just 19.0 MPG a pop. The 10-3-3 line was rather good for someone so limited in the context of his team, so every stat should go up at least a tick next year for Hyland. Only Nikola Jokic and DeMarcus Cousins posted higher FP/min figures than Hyland in Denver last year, and only Jamal Murray should do so next year if we assume a similar level of play from everybody in 2023. Keep an eye on Hyland because he's a fantastic off-the-pine option.
Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG - Boston Celtics
No matter the angle you look at it from, there is probably not a bigger winner than Brogdon this offseason when it comes to guards changing teams. Brogdon probably knew something was coming because he's been in the rumor mill for a year as the odd-man-out in Indiana as the Pacers embarked on a true rebuild the minute they flipped Domantas Sabonis for Tyrese Haliburton – if not earlier. It's finally Boston who moved some (few) pieces to land Brogdon and bolster an already Finals-level roster. It feels like Brogdon has been around forever and that he should be retiring, but he'll play next season at age 30 and he's still in his prime.
Brogdon's last three seasons finished with very similar results – on a per-game basis that is, as he's missed ample time in all of those only playing 54, 56, and lastly 36 (ugh) games in the past three years. He's a steady 34-to-38 FPPG performer, can play a lot of minutes (32+ MPG) and even if he gets to play a slightly lesser role in Boston, (Marcus Smart is the PG1 and insiders think the Celtics will keep Jaylen Brown at the SG1 position) he should still be good to put up something close to 18-4-5 easily over the year. The turnovers are a bit high (2+ SPG in three straight seasons) but that doesn't kill his upside all things considered. Massive improvement in terms of the environment and the players he'll share the floor with whether that is as part of the starting or the second unit.
Kevin Huerter, SG - Sacramento Kings
I had Huerter in the "losers" post at the start of free agency after Atlanta traded for Dejounte Murray – of course, both Murray and Trae are still losers (to an extent) for me due to the overlapping – but the second it was reported that the Hawks had moved Huerter to Sacramento he became an instant winner to my eyes. Not only does Huerter retain his SG1 role – now in Sacramento – but he also gets to a team in which he'll be under no real pressure other than making it to the play-in while being part of an all-shooters roster that includes tons of long-range firepower. He, of course, should fit like a glove.
De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis have little to envy the likes of Trae Young and John Collins regarding their cache in the league and their role in their respective teams. Huerter has had to surrender a ton of touches and opportunities to the former two, and while he will also be doing to the latter pair, I'd bet on that impact softening a bit. Huerter has averaged 0.83, 0.80, and 0.78 FP/min in the past three seasons while getting to USG% of around 27% (second unit), 17%, and 17%. Project a slight uptick there and some 12-3-3 line to go with around 2.5 3PM per game and that's 2023 Huerter for you. Also, I wouldn't worry about Malik Monk's presence so much. He feels like a much better fit as a second-unit microwave than a starter – and yes, he's another collateral loser of the whole Atlanta-San Antonio-Sacramento affair.
Lonnie Walker IV, SG - Los Angeles Lakers
The Spurs entered full-tank mode and Lonnie Walker was let go after four seasons in San Antonio. While everything pointed in the right direction for him from years one to three (from zero to 12 to 38 games started), last season saw Walker hit the starting wall getting relegated to the bench in 64 of his 70 games played. He only logged 23 MPG, and although his efficiency raised from 0.74 FP/min to just 0.90 (league average) his total FP mark wasn't even a top-150 figure in the whole NBA. That's mostly because his per-game numbers didn't move that much and finished at 12-2-2 compared to 11-2-1 from 2021.
Walker is now joining this sort of new "Youth & Proud" Lakers movement. Walker should be the SG2 of the Lakers or even the SG1 depending on which team LA wants to deploy in terms of size and skills. It's impossible to favor the likes of Avery Bradley/Austin Reaves/Mason Jones over Lonnie Walker at this point in their careers and what they've each shown to be capable of. Anyway, there is no "losing" in moving from the Spurs bench to the Lakers one (which would be the worst-case as things stand right now) so Lonnie becomes a winner by default with the likes of Russ, LeBron, and AD taking eyes from him and enabling better chances at racking up FP for him.
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG - Dallas Mavericks
Another potential winner by default, similar to Lonnie Walker (read above). THJ is clearly going to benefit from the departure of Jalen Brunson and the move from Luka from a combo-guard role to a more point-based one next year in Dallas. The question is whether Dallas will go with Hardaway or Spencer Dinwiddie for the largest amount of minutes, whether those come from the get-go or off the pine. Hardaway is more of a scoring player than a creator and in fact, he's dumped at least 14.2 PPG in each of his three years in Dallas. He only played 42 games last season (20 starts), so we'll see how his health is for him in 2023.
Hardaway can man the offense and has at least 1.8 APG in all of the past three seasons, but that's pretty much it. On a per-game basis, Hardaway is locked into some 25 FPPG average and has his best seasons in 2018/2019 when he split time in New York and Dallas at a not-so-distant 29 FPPG. Dinwiddie was an impressive finding by Dallas to extract from Washington in the Porzingis deal and he proved to be more capable of playing the point with 5.2 APG in the 2022 season playing mostly at the one. Even if that's the case for another year, Hardaway would then see openings at the other guard spot, again, with Jalen Brunson off to the Big Apple.
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