The Nats Aren't Trading Juan Soto, But Should You?

June 16, 2022

Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto is having a disappointing 2022 season for fantasy baseball. Should fantasy managers trade him, hold, or buy low?

It’s sometimes easy to forget Juan Soto is just 23 years old. It wasn’t crazy to call him the best hitter in baseball heading into 2022, and he was getting drafted in the top-three in just about every fantasy league. He also reportedly rejected a $350 million dollar offer from the Nationals and has since been a subject of trade talks.

Everyone was expecting A LOT out of Soto this season, but it’s hard to say that he has come through on those expectations thus far. He is currently ranked as the 56^th overall player on Yahoo after finishing 11^th in 2021.

The Nationals have been firm in that they will not trade Juan Soto, but that is real life. Should you be looking to trade Soto in fantasy? Is he due for a monster second half or have the trade talks and expectations gotten to him?

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Juan Soto's Plate Discipline

When evaluating Juan Soto’s performance, the first thing we should look at is his plate discipline. His command of the strike zone and willingness to take walks has been the most impressive thing about him so far in his career, and it's what really makes him stand out above the other young superstars in the game. I’m happy to report that his plate discipline is still fantastic. He has a .376 OBP and his 18.2 BB% is in the 100^th percentile in baseball. His K% of 15.3% is up from the last few years, but it's still 83^rd percentile. His whiff rate and chase rates are 70^th and 95^th percentile, which again are down from 2021 (80^th and 100^th respectively), but again, these are still incredibly impressive numbers. So, if Soto’s plate discipline is not the issue, what is causing the decrease in production?

Breaking and Offspeed Pitches

One aspect of Soto’s game that has seen a noticeable decline has to do with his hitting breaking and offspeed pitches. The charts below show Soto’s stats against both offspeed and breaking pitches in 2022 compared to 2021, with every stat that has decreased highlighted in yellow.

As you can see, these are significant drops across the board. Soto seems to have no answer for sliders right now, as he has a .054 average against sliders in 2022.  This is obviously something that he is going to have to sort out, as teams are going to become more and more aware of this fact as his struggles continue.

It’s hard to pinpoint a real reason for this, especially with his plate discipline still so strong. He is still identifying pitches just fine, but when it comes to putting the bat on the ball with authority, he has come up short if it isn’t a fastball. Pretty much all young hitters deal with this at some point, but it seemed like Soto was already past that point of adjustment in his career. Obviously, that is not true, so this is something Soto is going to have to improve on if he wants to be the #1 hitter in fantasy baseball.

Juan Soto's Batted Ball Profile

The most glaring concern about Soto’s 2022 season is his .228 batting average. After hitting .313 and .351 in 2021 and 2020, his batting average is actively hurting every single Soto owner this season. But as we know, batting average has a decent amount of luck involved, so you hope that he has been making enough quality contact to believe his luck will turn.

Overall, Soto’s Statcast numbers are still very good, but there are a few drops in stats that you don’t like to see in your first-round pick. His average exit velocity is sitting at 89.3 MPH, down from 93 MPH in 2021. That may not seem like a huge drop, but when it comes to percentiles compared to the rest of the league, it is. His 93 MPH average exit velo in 2021 was good for the 94^th percentile in MLB, while his 89.3 MPH of this year puts him all the way down to the 53^rd percentile, right around league average. His hard-hit rate is also down, going from 52.7% in 2021 to 44.4% this season. Again, these are not horrible numbers at all, but it’s a noticeable decline and not what you want to see out of your first-round pick.

His ground ball and fly ball rates have been right in line with his career averages, so that’s good to see there aren’t any issues there. His line-drive rate is at a career-low 17.2%, and it’s clear that he’s going to need to get that up closer to his career average of 22.8% to get that batting average up.

What To Do With Juan Soto

So, given all this information, what should we do with Soto? Overall, while there are some noticeable declines in key statistics, Soto has maintained his stellar plate discipline and overall approach at the plate and has still produced a 136 wRC+ (100 being league average). A quick look at his Statcast numbers from 2021 vs. 2022 tells you that not too much has changed really.

When it comes to a dynasty setting, there is no reason to see Soto any differently than you did before the season. He is still a 23-year-old with tons of expectations and pressure, so it’s natural that he sees a few bumps in the road at some point. That is especially the case this season with the trade rumors constantly surrounding him.

He is still walking more than anybody else, so he still has a lot of value in points leagues or OBP leagues. His underlying stats do suggest a positive regression, so I wouldn’t be looking to move Soto in those leagues. When it comes to standard roto redraft leagues, there may be an opportunity to move Soto and get some value out of the name. Specifically in the situation where you need batting average and were relying on Soto to be an anchor in that category.

Again, I do think he will end the season with a far better than .220 average, but his drops in hard hits and massive struggles against breaking/off-speed pitches suggest that his average may not be spectacular in the short term. If you have the chance to cash in on a hefty return by utilizing Soto’s name value, that might be a move that saves your season. But that is a pretty specific situation, so rest assured that Juan Soto is going to be just fine. He is still a once-in-a-lifetime talent and will continue to be just that this year and for years to come.

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