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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/16/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, May 16, 2022, for the 13-game 6:40 PM Eastern slate.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 12-19-1 overall on the season, down 1.98 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. It has been frustratingly difficult to predict the outcome of games in part due to the ball but we have to keep grinding, it's a long season, and eventually, we will get in the black. Last week was profitable and hopefully this week I can dig out of this hole!
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TOR -154
SEA: Chris Flexen | TOR:Yusei Kikuchi
For Seattle, Chris Flexen takes the mound against Toronto. On the season, he is 1-5 with a 4.24 ERA and a 4.54 xFIP. He has allowed 1.32 HR/9 and a hard-hit rate of 45.4%. The Blue Jays have been in a bit of a scoring rut in that they have scored just 3.5 runs per game over the last eight games. In that same span, they are 2-6. Of course, teams go through highs and lows and it is difficult to predict how long such streaks last. Will they continue to hit poorly and score a few runs or will facing a pitcher who has given up a lot of hard contact help them get out of the slump? That's always hard to weigh. What we can say is Toronto is not hitting the ball well at the moment. Toronto has scored the 20th most runs this season, with the 22nd highest OBP, yet has the 11th highest ISO this season too.
The other side of the mound isn't that much different though. Kikuchi is 1-1 in six starts with a 4.15 ERA, 4.25 xFIP, allowing an HR/9 of 1.38 and a hard-hit rate of 50%. Seattle has scored the 19th most runs, yet has the 12th highest OBP and 18th highest ISO.
All in all, the starting pitching matchup is pretty even and while Seattle and Toronto score their runs in different ways, they are 19th and 20th in runs scored this season. On paper, one would say the Toronto offense is more dangerous, and that is shown in their ISO, but Seattle has done a better job of being more consistent with getting on base. All in all, it is a coin flip.
With the bullpens, they are pretty close too. Toronto has a bullpen ERA of 4.05 while Seattle's is 3.69. That ranks Seattle No. 18 and Toronto No. 21, both in the bottom half of the league.
Looking at the lines, it does not make sense that Toronto is a -154 favorite. Does this matchup sound like a game in which Toronto has a 60% chance of winning? Additionally, I like the over in this game too.
Picks: Seattle Moneyline (+145), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 unit; OVER 8.5 runs (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 unit
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIL -125
ATL: Ian Anderson | MIL:Freddy Peralta
The Braves and Brewers kick off a new series in Milwaukee on Monday. Atlanta has Ian Anderson going. He is 3-1 on the year with a 4.20 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, allowing 1.20 HR/9, and allowing a hard-hit rate of 42.9%. Additionally, he has a career-low 17.1% strikeout rate and a career-high 12.4% walk rate this season. Milwaukee has scored the fourth most runs and has the highest ISO in baseball. With several young arms in the minors, if he continues to pitch like this, Anderson could find himself out of the rotation soon.
On the other side, Freddy Peralta has been pitching better with a 4.40 ERA but a 3.11 xFIP. His strikeout rate is still an impressive 30.6%, even though it is down from 37.6% in 2020 and 33.6% in 2021. Atlanta has the highest strikeout rate in baseball (25.5%), has scored the 14th most runs, and has the sixth-highest ISO. The Braves are a dangerous offense but they also strike out a lot.
Looking at this matchup, Milwaukee has the edge in two of the phases of the game. They have the better starting pitcher and the better offense. The bullpens are a push as Atlanta has a bullpen ERA of 3.64 while Milwaukee's bullpen ERA is 3.85. It wouldn't shock me if Atlanta won the game, but Milwaukee should be favored and is appropriately priced here.
Where I see value is in the run totals. I see a spot where Milwaukee could put up some runs on Anderson and while Atlanta does strike out a lot, they can still put up a couple against Peralta. I like taking the even money of the run total and seeing what happens, as Milwaukee could easily score 5-6 runs themselves in this one.
Pick: OVER 8 Runs (+100), PointsBet Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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